Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market in H1 2025 is under significant pressure from high prices and interest rates, leading to historically low housing affordability and a decline in both new and existing home sales [1][11]. - Existing home prices have reached record highs, with the median price in June 2025 at $433,000, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase [20]. - The overall inventory of homes has increased slightly, but existing home inventory remains tight, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][48]. Summary by Sections Transactions & Prices - In the first half of 2025, new home sales totaled 330,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year, while existing home sales were 2.04 million units, a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][11]. - The median price for new homes averaged $417,000, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while existing homes saw a median price increase of 2.4% to $411,000 [2][20]. Supply - As of June 2025, new home inventory stood at 502,000 units, a 2.7% increase from December 2024, while existing home inventory rose to 1.54 million units, a 35.1% increase [3][48]. - The months of supply for existing homes is 4.7 months, indicating a continued shortage despite the marginal increase in inventory [48]. Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since early 2025, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates fluctuating between 6.65% and 6.96% [4][53]. - As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 6.59%, still within the 80.4% percentile historically [4][53]. H2 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that high construction material costs and increased inventory pressures will lead to a conservative approach from builders, resulting in a continued decline in new home starts [60]. - The "rate lock effect" is expected to persist, limiting existing homeowners' willingness to sell, thereby exacerbating the existing home inventory shortage [1][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Impact Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - **Overseas**: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - **Domestic**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - **Commodities Viewpoint**: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Employment**: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - **US Housing Market**: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **LPR**: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - **Market Situation**: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - **Agricultural and Energy Sectors**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - **Automobile Sales**: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - **Commodity Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Canada's home sales in May increased by 3.6% month-over-month, contrasting with a previous decline of 0.1% [1] Group 2 - The increase in home sales indicates a potential recovery in the Canadian real estate market, suggesting improved buyer confidence [1] - The data reflects a shift in market dynamics, which may influence future investment strategies in the housing sector [1] - The month-over-month growth could signal a trend that investors should monitor closely for further developments in the housing market [1]

Core Insights - The April pending home sales index in the U.S. fell by 6.3% month-over-month, marking the largest decline since September 2022, with expectations of a 1% decrease and a previous increase of 6.1% [2] - Year-over-year, the pending home sales index dropped by 3.5%, contrary to expectations of a 2.7% increase and a previous decline of 0.1% [2] Regional Performance - The pending home sales in the Western region decreased by 8.9%, the largest drop in two and a half years [3] - The South, the largest housing market in the U.S., saw a 7.7% decline in pending sales [3] - The Midwest region experienced a 5% decrease in pending home sales [3] Market Analysis - The decline in the pending home sales index indicates a disappointing performance for the spring selling season in the U.S. secondary housing market, as potential buyers are deterred by high home prices and mortgage costs [4] - NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, highlighted that the core issue is the high mortgage rates, currently around 7%, which are beyond the affordability range for buyers. He suggested that only a reduction to around 6% could revitalize the market [4] - Despite an increase in housing supply, it has not led to a rise in transaction volumes, with Yun stating that lower mortgage rates are essential to attract buyers back to the market [4] - Economists noted that the pending home sales, a leading indicator, have become less reliable due to unstable conversion rates from contracts to final sales [4] - The cancellation rate for pending home sales rose to 7% from January to April 2024, the highest level this year [4]

Group 1 - The total number of existing home sales in the US for April decreased by 0.5% on a year-over-year annualized basis, which was below the expected increase of 2% and a significant drop from the previous value of -5.9% [1]

Group 1 - The total annualized sales of existing homes in the U.S. for April recorded 4 million units, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1]

加拿大4月成屋销售月率 -0.1%，预期1%，前值-4.80%。 ...

Group 1 - The total annualized sales of existing homes in the U.S. for March recorded 4.02 million units, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The total number of existing home sales in the U.S. for March decreased by 5.9% year-over-year, which was worse than the expected decline of 2.6% and a previous increase of 4.2% [1]