住房市场的亮点在于可负担性出现改善迹象。近期按揭贷款利率回落、房价涨势放缓，推动NAR住房 可负担性指标上月升至2022年以来的最高水平，但仍明显低于疫情前区间。NAR数据显示，1月成屋销 售中位价同比上涨0.9%，至39.68万美元。若缺乏一段更长时间的可负担性改善，住房市场的复苏或将 被拉长。 买家结构方面，1月首次购房者占比升至31%，高于前一个月的29%，也高于去年同期。供给端则有所 改善，1月成屋库存同比增加3.4%，至122万套。供给在2025年的逐步回升有助于抑制房价涨幅，但Yun 在与记者的电话会上强调，要显著提振成交，挂牌量仍需"更大幅度增加"。 市场人士普遍预计今年成屋销售将回升。媒体去年12月的调查显示，分析师对今年销量增幅的预期区间 在1.7%至14%之间，前提是房价涨势继续放缓、融资成本趋于稳定。数据显示，上月按揭贷款利率降至 6.16%，为一年多以来低位。 智通财经APP获悉，美国1月二手房销售出现近四年来最大单月跌幅，极端寒冷天气与大范围冬季风暴 对成交造成明显冲击。根据全美房地产经纪人协会(NAR)周四公布的数据，1月成屋成交量环比下降 8.4%，折合年率为391万套，显著低于 ...

新华社纽约1月21日电美国全国房地产经纪人协会21日发布的数据显示，美国2025年12月成屋签约销售 指数为71.8，环比和同比降幅分别为9.3%和3%，远低于市场此前预期。 数据显示，全美划分的四个区域中，除南部区域环比下降4%外，东北、中西部和西部三个区域环比降 幅均超过10%。 有媒体分析认为，经济形势的不确定性使就业增长速度显著放缓。人们对劳动力市场的担忧以及入门级 住房持续短缺，抵消了目前部分利好因素给住房市场带来的正向影响。 成屋签约销售指数是衡量房地产市场活跃度的先行指标。该指数用于反映房屋销售合同的签订情况。由 于房屋通常在售出前一两个月就会签订销售合同，成屋签约销售指数通常会提前反映出房地产市场的走 势。 （文章来源：新华社） 美国全国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家劳伦斯·尤恩说，美国住房的销售情况尚未摆脱低迷状态。在 前几个月待完成合同和已完成销售数据释放积极信号后，12月新签合同数据给住房市场的短期前景蒙上 阴影。目前尚不清楚这一数据是单月反常现象，还是新趋势的开始，需要未来几个月对数据进行持续观 察。 ...

Group 1 - The total annualized sales of existing homes in the U.S. for December reached 4.35 million units, exceeding the expected 4.22 million units and the previous value of 4.13 million units [1] - Month-over-month, the existing home sales increased by 5.1%, significantly higher than the expected increase of 2.2% and the previous increase of 0.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In November, U.S. existing home sales experienced a slight increase of 0.5%, attributed to economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates suppressing demand [1] Group 1: Sales Data - The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate for existing homes reached 4.13 million units in November [1] - Economists forecasted that existing home sales would rise to 4.15 million units, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.0% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The number of homes listed for sale has decreased, indicating a tightening supply in the housing market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that U.S. existing home sales in November showed a slight increase of 0.5% year-over-year, which was below the expected increase of 1.2% [1] - The annualized total of existing home sales in November reached 4.13 million units, slightly lower than the expected 4.15 million units and an increase from the previous month's 4.10 million units [1]

Group 1 - In October, U.S. existing home sales increased by 1.2% month-over-month, reaching the highest level in eight months, with an annualized rate of 4.1 million units sold [1] - The median home price in October was $415,200, marking a 2.1% year-over-year increase, continuing a 28-month upward trend [1] - The inventory of homes for sale at the end of October was 1.52 million units, a 0.7% decrease month-over-month but a 10.9% increase year-over-year, remaining below the pre-pandemic average of approximately 2 million units [1] Group 2 - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. was reported at 6.26%, slightly up from 6.24% the previous week, and down from 6.84% a year ago [2]

Group 1 - In September, U.S. existing home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month, reaching the highest level in seven months, with an annualized rate of 4.06 million units sold [1] - The median home price in September was $415,200, marking a 2.1% year-over-year increase, continuing a 27-month upward trend [1] - The inventory of homes for sale at the end of September was 1.55 million units, reflecting a 1.3% month-over-month increase and a 14% year-over-year increase, although still below the pre-pandemic average by about 2 million units [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the rise in existing home sales primarily to a decrease in mortgage rates, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.19%, the lowest level since October 3, 2024 [1] - Economists predict that despite the increase in home sales due to lower mortgage rates, overall sales for the year are expected to be slightly higher than last year's figures due to economic uncertainties [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market in H1 2025 is under significant pressure from high prices and interest rates, leading to historically low housing affordability and a decline in both new and existing home sales [1][11]. - Existing home prices have reached record highs, with the median price in June 2025 at $433,000, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase [20]. - The overall inventory of homes has increased slightly, but existing home inventory remains tight, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][48]. Summary by Sections Transactions & Prices - In the first half of 2025, new home sales totaled 330,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year, while existing home sales were 2.04 million units, a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][11]. - The median price for new homes averaged $417,000, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while existing homes saw a median price increase of 2.4% to $411,000 [2][20]. Supply - As of June 2025, new home inventory stood at 502,000 units, a 2.7% increase from December 2024, while existing home inventory rose to 1.54 million units, a 35.1% increase [3][48]. - The months of supply for existing homes is 4.7 months, indicating a continued shortage despite the marginal increase in inventory [48]. Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since early 2025, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates fluctuating between 6.65% and 6.96% [4][53]. - As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 6.59%, still within the 80.4% percentile historically [4][53]. H2 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that high construction material costs and increased inventory pressures will lead to a conservative approach from builders, resulting in a continued decline in new home starts [60]. - The "rate lock effect" is expected to persist, limiting existing homeowners' willingness to sell, thereby exacerbating the existing home inventory shortage [1][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Impact Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - **Overseas**: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - **Domestic**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - **Commodities Viewpoint**: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Employment**: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - **US Housing Market**: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **LPR**: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - **Market Situation**: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - **Agricultural and Energy Sectors**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - **Automobile Sales**: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - **Commodity Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Canada's home sales in May increased by 3.6% month-over-month, contrasting with a previous decline of 0.1% [1] Group 2 - The increase in home sales indicates a potential recovery in the Canadian real estate market, suggesting improved buyer confidence [1] - The data reflects a shift in market dynamics, which may influence future investment strategies in the housing sector [1] - The month-over-month growth could signal a trend that investors should monitor closely for further developments in the housing market [1]