Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, the profit forecasts for Beike-W (02423) have been revised downwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 3.718 billion, 4.774 billion, and 5.820 billion yuan, representing decreases of 11%, 8%, and 4% respectively. The company, being a leader in real estate brokerage, is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market, with significant growth potential in home decoration and rental sectors, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - In Q3, the company reported revenues, net profits, and Non-GAAP net profits of 23.1 billion, 750 million, and 1.29 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +2.1%, -36.1%, and -27.8% [1]. - The company's revenue growth has been declining throughout the year, with the second-hand housing GTV and revenue for Q3 at 505.6 billion and 6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +5.8% and -3.6% [2]. - The new housing GTV and revenue for Q3 were 196.3 billion and 6.6 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of -13.8% and -14.1% [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved revenues of 4.3 billion and 5.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.1% and +45.3% respectively [2]. - The profit margin for home decoration was 32.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved procurement costs and efficiency [2]. - The rental business achieved a profit margin of 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved gross margins in the "Worry-Free Rental" service [2]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin in Q3 was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin new housing revenue [3]. - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 7.5%, 8.1%, and 2.8%, showing year-on-year changes of -1.1, -0.3, and +0.3 percentage points respectively [3]. - The Non-GAAP net profit margin for Q3 was 5.6%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the company continued to enhance shareholder returns with a buyback amounting to 280 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [3].