8月26日，贝壳发布2025年第二季度财务业绩。财报显示，今年第二季度，贝壳净收入为260亿元，同比增加11.3%；净利润为13.07亿元，同比下降31.2%； 经调整净利润为18.21亿元，同比下降32.4%。 | | | 截至以下日期止三個月 | | | 截至以下日期止六個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024年 | | 2025年 | | 2024年 2025年 | | | | 6月30日 | 6月30日 | 6月30日 6月30日 | | 6月30日 | | | | 人民幣 | 人民幣 | 美元 | 人民幣 | 人民幣 | | | 浄收入 | | | | | | | | 存量房業務 | 7.334.889 | 6.719.345 | 937.984 | 13.061.919 | 13.589.752 | | | 新房業務 | 7.933.805 | 8.619.323 | 1.203.211 | 12.850.320 | 16.694.318 | 2 | | 家裝家居 | 4.040.224 | 4.565.354 | 63 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $22.15 [1][5][29] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the company expected to see a 12% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 26.3 billion RMB [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 1.79 billion RMB in Q2 2025, primarily due to the overall slowdown in the real estate sector [5][10] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to improve its operating profit margin sequentially, driven by enhanced efficiency in stores and agents, as well as the continued advantages in its home decoration business [5][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 102.59 billion RMB, 115.78 billion RMB, and 128.57 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10.8%, 12.5%, and 14.1% from previous estimates [4][25][27] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is revised to 7.02 billion RMB, down 14.6% from earlier forecasts, with further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [25][27] Business Segment Performance - The company anticipates a 14% year-on-year growth in its home decoration business in Q2 2025, with a potential for breakeven in quarterly earnings due to increased order volumes and cost efficiencies [8][9] - The real estate transaction services are expected to show mixed results, with existing home transaction services projected to decline by 3%, while new home transaction services are expected to grow by 13% [5][10] Market Conditions - The report highlights a weakening in the real estate market, with inventory pressures and a prolonged de-stocking cycle affecting sales [6][14] - Recent policy changes in Beijing aimed at easing purchase restrictions are expected to temporarily boost transaction activity, particularly in the outer districts [7][23]

Core Points - The Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce announced adjustments to the rules for the old-for-new exchange activities for home appliances, mobile phones, and digital products starting from August 9, 2025 [1] - The adjustments aim to enhance the timeliness and balance of subsidy fund usage, in line with the latest national directives on consumer product exchanges [1] Summary by Category Policy Changes - The new rules will be effective from August 9, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with weekly allocation of subsidies for the exchange activities [1] - Subsidy funds will be distributed on a first-come, first-served basis, with the weekly allocation stopping once the funds are exhausted [1] Consumer Participation - Consumers can apply for qualification verification through the Cloud Flash Payment APP during specified hours, and those verified can enjoy subsidies when purchasing eligible products [1] - It is advised for consumers to check the remaining fund balance weekly to plan their purchases accordingly, as no subsidies will be available if the funds are depleted for that week [1] National Context - Other regions in the country have also adjusted their old-for-new exchange rules to focus on timeliness and balance, ensuring smooth operation of these consumer activities [2]

Group 1 - Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 687.21 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, the first positive growth this year [1] - In May alone, Shanghai's retail sales totaled 151.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, an acceleration of 4.9 percentage points compared to April [1] - The recovery in retail sales is attributed to a combination of policies and activities, reflecting an overall economic recovery and improved consumer expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy and related activities, including the "618" shopping festival, have significantly boosted consumer enthusiasm, contributing to the positive growth in retail sales [2] - From January to May, Shanghai's retail sales of goods reached 603.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, driven by strong growth in categories such as grain and oil (12.6%) and home appliances (8.2%) [2] - The implementation of a three-tier subsidy system for the "old-for-new" policy has led to over 11 million orders and sales exceeding 26 billion yuan, with a 100% month-on-month increase in recent home appliance orders [2][3] Group 3 - The "Five-Five Shopping Festival" launched in May featured nearly 100 shopping malls and around 3,600 brands, leading to significant retail growth in jewelry (12.7%), clothing (9.3%), and cosmetics (4.0%) [3] - The local cosmetics industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the "Oriental Beauty Valley" achieving an output value of 50.85 billion yuan in 2024, becoming a major hub for the cosmetics industry in Shanghai [3] Group 4 - The "Action Plan" outlines six major initiatives to enhance consumption, including increasing income for urban and rural residents, improving service quality, and promoting new consumption types [4] - The plan emphasizes the development of "self-indulgent consumption" and the cultivation of new consumption patterns, such as digital entertainment and health-related services [4][5] - The focus on service consumption is seen as a new growth point, with a need to align services more closely with consumer demands [5] Group 5 - Shanghai plans to allocate 500 million yuan in fiscal funds to stimulate service consumption, with 360 million yuan specifically for the restaurant sector, aiming to enhance the quality of dining experiences [5][6] - The city aims to leverage its cultural and creative industry advantages to attract more consumers and stimulate both service and physical consumption [6] - Strategies include promoting high-end cultural IP resources and integrating cultural events with consumer activities to create sustainable consumption patterns [6]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival in China has been extended to 39 days, starting from May 13 and ending on June 20, which is 7 days earlier than last year, aiming to boost consumer spending amid global economic uncertainties [1] - Major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com have simplified their promotional rules this year, eliminating complex discount calculations and focusing on straightforward discount methods to enhance consumer experience [2] - The sales of agricultural products, particularly lychees, have surged during the "618" festival, with JD.com reporting a significant increase in sales due to direct sourcing from Guangdong [3][4] Group 2 - The "618" festival has attracted international attention, with foreign companies increasing their stock for the event, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [5][6] - China's retail market is showing signs of vitality, with the retail sales growth rate reaching 6.4% in May, the highest since December 2023, supported by strong consumer spending during the Labor Day holiday and government subsidies [6][7] - Despite external challenges such as trade conflicts, the demand in the Chinese market remains stable, with experts suggesting that the retail sector has significant growth potential [7]

上 市 公 司 房地产 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,740 | 122,649 | 135,786 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,201 | 7,544 | 9,121 | | 同比增长率（%） | -524 | -31 | 53 | 22 | 21 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 2.15 | 2.60 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 8.16 | 5.70 | 8.68 | 10.70 | 13.17 | | 市盈率 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Beike (BEKE.US) reported strong Q1 2025 financial results, exceeding market expectations, with significant growth in both existing and new home transactions, as well as rapid expansion in non-property services [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Beike achieved a total transaction volume of 843.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and total revenue of 23.3 billion RMB, up 42.4% year-on-year [1]. - The existing home business generated a transaction volume of 580.3 billion RMB, a 28.1% increase year-on-year, with net income of 6.9 billion RMB, up 20.0% [2]. - The new home business saw a transaction volume of 232.2 billion RMB, a 53.0% increase year-on-year, with net income of 8.1 billion RMB, up 64.2% [2]. - Non-property services reported a net income growth of 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for 35.9% of total net income, with rental services net income reaching 5.1 billion RMB, a 93.8% increase [3]. Profitability - Beike's net profit for Q1 2025 was 0.855 billion RMB, a 97.9% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 1.393 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin decreased from 25.2% in the previous year to 20.7%, attributed to a lower contribution from the higher-margin existing home business and increased fixed salary costs [3]. Market Context - The positive performance is linked to a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which have led to favorable conditions in both new and second-hand home markets [3]. - Beike's CEO expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth strategy and ongoing investments in AI applications [3]. Investor Reaction - Despite the strong performance, Beike's stock fell by 5.29% to $19.16 per share on May 15, 2025, with H-shares also showing a slight decline [4]. - This negative reaction may be related to conservative guidance for Q2 2025, with expected revenue of 26 billion RMB, which is 10% lower than UBS's forecast [5]. Future Outlook - Beike anticipates a conservative growth outlook for Q2 2025, with second-hand home transaction volume expected to remain flat year-on-year and new home transaction volume projected to grow by 10% [5]. - The company expects home decoration and rental income to grow by double digits and 70% year-on-year, respectively [5].