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【2025三季报点评/中集车辆】业绩承压,北美市场持续磨底
Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, indicating pressure on profit margins and overall financial performance [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.26 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 219 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.2% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 15.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Business Segments - The company produced 82,000 semi-trailers from Q1 to Q3 2025, generating total revenue of 10.69 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.8% [3]. - In China, the sales of semi-trailers and liquid tankers reached 49,800 units, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and revenue growth of 16.3% [3]. - The southern market saw sales of 15,800 units, with a year-on-year increase of 21.4% and revenue growth of 15.8% [4]. New Energy Vehicles - The company's new energy vehicle segment, particularly the EV-DTB series, showed strong growth, with sales of 3,900 dump trucks, 1,500 mixer trucks, and 1,900 refrigerated trucks, reflecting increases of 87.7%, 84.7%, and 84.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 925 million yuan and 1.339 billion yuan, respectively, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.878 billion yuan [6]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield in 2025, with a current valuation at a low level, and is rated as a "buy" [6].
中集车辆(301039):业绩承压,北美市场持续磨底
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 08:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, particularly in the North American market, which continues to struggle [1] - The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to the unstable recovery of the North American semi-trailer market [1] - Despite current challenges, the company is expected to maintain high dividends in 2025 and is positioned for a potential recovery in 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 25,087 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.21% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,455.67 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 119.66% - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.31 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.28 [1] Quarterly Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.26 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 219 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market and Regional Insights - The company produced 82,000 semi-trailers in the first three quarters of 2025, generating revenue of 10.69 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.8% - In China, the company saw a 16.5% year-on-year increase in semi-trailer and liquid tank truck sales, with a market share of 23.07% [8] - The North American market remains weak, with a 20.1% year-on-year decline in semi-trailer production [8] Future Earnings Forecast - The company's earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 925.12 million RMB and 1,339.20 million RMB, respectively - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.49 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 19.33 [1]