1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price may form a short - term premium driven by market news. Although there is an expectation of new capacity release on the supply side, factors such as the increase in spodumene cost and the time required for the ramp - up of salt lake lithium production capacity, as well as the short - term impact of some lithium mines' supplementary payment of lithium, tantalum, and niobium resource taxes and the 414 safety accident rumors, will push up the lithium price. The impact of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" on the demand side may fade in the short term, and the digestion of 130,000 tons of inventory and 30,000 warrants still raises concerns about oversupply [3]. - In October, although the supply of lithium carbonate is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, and it is expected to form a stage of tight supply [6]. - Considering the dual factors of increased supply and growing demand, the decline in inventory may lead to a short - term tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the impact of new capacity release, and there may be a risk of a high - level correction [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes** - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract remained at 75,700 yuan/ton, with the weekly price center gradually rising from 72,680 yuan/ton to 75,700 yuan/ton, showing signs of phased stabilization. The basis strengthened from - 2,600 yuan/ton to - 2,400 yuan/ton, the spot market quotation rebounded slightly, and the futures discount narrowed [1]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 12.93% to 138,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 53.84% to 169,000 lots, indicating a significant decline in market trading activity [1]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain** - **Supply Side**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 71.31% to 74.39%, a month - on - month increase of 4.32%, mainly due to the commissioning of salt lake lithium extraction projects and the optimization of the spodumene lithium extraction process. The price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3% to 6,685 yuan/ton, strengthening the cost support; the price of lepidolite remained stable at 3,400 yuan/ton, and the supply side showed an overall trend of incremental release [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of cathode materials continued to rise. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.62% to 34,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials also increased. The prices of downstream battery cells increased significantly, with the price of 523 square ternary battery cells jumping by 24.49%. The inventory replenishment demand of battery enterprises recovered. In terms of the terminal demand for new energy vehicles, from October 1 - 12, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 53.5%, and the manufacturers' wholesale volume increased by 1% year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory and Warrants**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.59% to 133,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the decrease in warrant registration volume, the market may enter a phased period of tight supply [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract remained unchanged at 75,700 yuan/ton from October 17 to October 20. The basis strengthened by 7.69% from - 2,600 yuan/ton to - 2,400 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 12.93%, and the trading volume decreased by 53.84%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.27%. The market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3% to 6,685 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 4.64%. The prices of power - type ternary materials and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.75% and 0.62% respectively. The prices of various types of battery cells also showed different degrees of increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On October 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,991 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 642 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 yuan/ton, both increasing by 650 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate, with the center of the main contract rising to the range of 75,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories' operating rates continued to rise, and demand supported spot transactions. On the supply side, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and it is expected that the total lithium carbonate production in October still has growth potential. On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand. Overall, in October, although the supply is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, and it is expected to form a stage of tight supply [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 12, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide was 367,000, a year - on - year decrease of 1% compared with the same period last October but a 1% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 9.236 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The manufacturers' wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 328,000, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period last October but an 11% decrease compared with the same period last month. The manufacturers' wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 60.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 10.775 million, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: - On September 28, it was reported that on September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered the site, marking that the civil engineering project of the project has entered a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant [9]. - On September 26, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan, was completed and put into production. This is the first project implemented and completed in Tianqi Lithium's "five - year strategic plan" and the second fully automated battery - grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) factory of Tianqi Lithium in Zhangjiagang [9]. - On September 26, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been in the works for four years, was officially put into production. The project's capacity release is expected to significantly improve the self - sufficiency rate of domestic lithium resources [10].