炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月26日，碳酸锂市场再度迎来标志性突破，主力合约盘中涨超8%，强势站上13万/吨关口，创下2023 年11月以来的新高。 | 碳酸锂主连 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LCZL.GFE | | | | | | | | 129520 | 高 | 130800 | 振幅 | 5.33% | 量 15.51万 | | | 代 | | 124220 | 今結 | | 持仓 | 60.7万 | | 8800 7.29% | 开 | 124220 | | 昨结 120720 | 日增 | -186 | | 日K 圖K | 分时 | | 目K | 五日 | 車零。 | (0) | | 均价:12.86万 最新:12.95万 8800 7% | | | | | | | | 13-08-7 | | | | 8.35% 卖 1 129580 | | 5 | | | | | | 21 | 129520 | 10 | | | | | | 时间 | 价格 空换 | 现手 ...

记者丨 李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 12月26日，碳酸锂市场再度迎来标志性突破，主力合约盘中涨超8%，强势站上13万/吨关口， 创下2023年11月以来的新高。 | 碳酸锂主连 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LCZL.GFE | | | | | | | | | 129520 | | 調 | 130800 振幅 | | 5.33% | 量 15.51万 | | | 代 | | | 124220 | 今结 | | 持仓 | 60.7万 | | 8800 7.29% | | 井 | 124220 | | 昨结 120720 日增 | | -186 | | 分时 園K | 日K | | | 目K | 五日 | 更多, | (0) | | 均价:12.86万 最新:12.95万 8800 7% | | | | | | | | | 13-08-万 | | | | | | 8.35% 卖 129580 | 5 | | | | | | | 买1 | 129520 | 10 | | | | | | | 时间 | 价格 | 现手 ...

尽管传统消费旺季逐步收官，但碳酸锂市场的热度不减。 复产预期延后，碳酸锂期货大涨 在供应端扰动的刺激下，碳酸锂市场再度升温。 12月19日中午，市场传出江西枧下窝锂矿环评公示的最新进展消息，复产预期被认为再度延后。受此影响，碳 酸锂期货主力合约快速拉升，盘中一度大涨近4%，价格突破11万元/吨关口，创下一年半以来新高。 当晚，广州期货交易所迅速出手"降温"，宣布自12月23日起调整碳酸锂期货部分合约的交易限额，以防范市场 过度波动风险。 12月19日中午，江西省宜春招标网发布《江西省宜丰县圳口里－奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目环境影响评价第一 次环评信息公示》，对枧下窝锂矿进行第一次环评信息公示。 本次公示流程结束后，矿山需取得不同部门的许可，直至取得《安全生产许可证》，才会允许正常开采。这一 现实进度，显著弱化了此前市场对该矿短期复产的预期。 作为国内重要的锂资源供应来源之一，枧下窝锂矿的复产时间点，一直是影响碳酸锂市场情绪的关键变量。此 次环评信息披露后，市场认为复产仍需较长时间，供应端收缩预期再度强化。 受此刺激，碳酸锂期货主力合约午后大幅拉涨，涨幅一度超过5%，最高触及113500元/吨，收盘涨3.86%， ...

11月27日晚间，一张"关于宜春时代枧下窝矿采矿权变更申请的受理通知书"被广泛传阅，从隔日的市场 表现看，该消息并未产生较大影响。11月28日，碳酸锂期货呈现低开高走态势，LC2605合约报收96420 元/吨，下跌0.62%。 对此，银河期货分析师陈婧表示，枧下窝锂矿复产已经是市场的一致预期，市场分歧更多在于复产的时 点。部分观点认为，枧下窝锂矿复产进度有加快的可能，但也有观点认为，后续流程还要等待较长时 间。更为重要的是，此前的两次消息，即"9月9日枧下窝锂矿复产动员会"和"11月6日采矿权出让费补缴 公示"消息传出后，对盘面均表现为利空。"前两次下跌已经计价了相关复产消息的影响，市场对枧下窝 锂矿的复产并没有悬念。即使枧下窝锂矿12月份复产，对明年的供需平衡表也没有较大影响。"陈婧解 释称，在需求主导的交易逻辑下，供应端的扰动效应减弱，因此，此次相关消息传出后，碳酸锂期货价 格呈现低开高走的态势。 创元期货余烁认为，枧下窝锂矿复产时间并未完全确定，且市场之前进行过多次预期交易，在复产时间 明确之前，市场倾向于等待复产时间明确后，再结合基本面的变化评估相关影响。 "预计今年11月碳酸锂去库在1.2万吨附近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price may form a short - term premium driven by market news. Although there is an expectation of new capacity release on the supply side, factors such as the increase in spodumene cost and the time required for the ramp - up of salt lake lithium production capacity, as well as the short - term impact of some lithium mines' supplementary payment of lithium, tantalum, and niobium resource taxes and the 414 safety accident rumors, will push up the lithium price. The impact of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" on the demand side may fade in the short term, and the digestion of 130,000 tons of inventory and 30,000 warrants still raises concerns about oversupply [3]. - In October, although the supply of lithium carbonate is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, and it is expected to form a stage of tight supply [6]. - Considering the dual factors of increased supply and growing demand, the decline in inventory may lead to a short - term tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the impact of new capacity release, and there may be a risk of a high - level correction [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes** - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract remained at 75,700 yuan/ton, with the weekly price center gradually rising from 72,680 yuan/ton to 75,700 yuan/ton, showing signs of phased stabilization. The basis strengthened from - 2,600 yuan/ton to - 2,400 yuan/ton, the spot market quotation rebounded slightly, and the futures discount narrowed [1]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 12.93% to 138,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 53.84% to 169,000 lots, indicating a significant decline in market trading activity [1]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain** - **Supply Side**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 71.31% to 74.39%, a month - on - month increase of 4.32%, mainly due to the commissioning of salt lake lithium extraction projects and the optimization of the spodumene lithium extraction process. The price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3% to 6,685 yuan/ton, strengthening the cost support; the price of lepidolite remained stable at 3,400 yuan/ton, and the supply side showed an overall trend of incremental release [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of cathode materials continued to rise. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.62% to 34,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials also increased. The prices of downstream battery cells increased significantly, with the price of 523 square ternary battery cells jumping by 24.49%. The inventory replenishment demand of battery enterprises recovered. In terms of the terminal demand for new energy vehicles, from October 1 - 12, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 53.5%, and the manufacturers' wholesale volume increased by 1% year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory and Warrants**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.59% to 133,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the decrease in warrant registration volume, the market may enter a phased period of tight supply [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract remained unchanged at 75,700 yuan/ton from October 17 to October 20. The basis strengthened by 7.69% from - 2,600 yuan/ton to - 2,400 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 12.93%, and the trading volume decreased by 53.84%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.27%. The market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3% to 6,685 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 4.64%. The prices of power - type ternary materials and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.75% and 0.62% respectively. The prices of various types of battery cells also showed different degrees of increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On October 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,991 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 642 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 yuan/ton, both increasing by 650 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate, with the center of the main contract rising to the range of 75,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories' operating rates continued to rise, and demand supported spot transactions. On the supply side, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and it is expected that the total lithium carbonate production in October still has growth potential. On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand. Overall, in October, although the supply is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, and it is expected to form a stage of tight supply [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 12, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide was 367,000, a year - on - year decrease of 1% compared with the same period last October but a 1% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 9.236 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The manufacturers' wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 328,000, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period last October but an 11% decrease compared with the same period last month. The manufacturers' wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 60.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 10.775 million, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: - On September 28, it was reported that on September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered the site, marking that the civil engineering project of the project has entered a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant [9]. - On September 26, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan, was completed and put into production. This is the first project implemented and completed in Tianqi Lithium's "five - year strategic plan" and the second fully automated battery - grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) factory of Tianqi Lithium in Zhangjiagang [9]. - On September 26, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been in the works for four years, was officially put into production. The project's capacity release is expected to significantly improve the self - sufficiency rate of domestic lithium resources [10].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, primarily due to the news of the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL, leading to increased supply expectations and a shift in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 4.87% after initially dropping over 7% [1]. - The Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which had been offline since August 10, produced approximately 10,000 tons/month, accounting for 12.5% of China's total lithium carbonate output [1][2]. - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to impact the supply-demand balance, with analysts noting that the market is currently in a phase of "expectations of resumption" versus "real demand" [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of September 4, lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous growth in supply [3]. - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, particularly driven by high orders for energy storage and power batteries, with expectations for demand growth to continue until November [3]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by approximately 1,044 tons as of September 4, with smelter inventories dropping over 3,800 tons, reflecting a high willingness to replenish stocks among downstream enterprises [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a sensitive phase with mixed signals, as the exact timeline for the resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine remains uncertain [4]. - Despite the potential for supply increases, the current strong demand for lithium carbonate may provide some price support in the short term [4].

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源 ：鑫椤锂电 宜春枧下窝矿终于正式宣布停产，周一碳酸锂期货、期权均出现涨停。 从7月反内卷到8月初末日轮期权， 再到上周末的官宣，江西锂矿采矿权事件的靴子终于落地，无人机满载而归。 从对供应的影响看， 宁德时代下属三个时代的碳酸锂产能近10万吨，实际产量约在7-8万吨水平，但是， 上述锂盐厂并非所有的锂云母都来自枧下窝矿。枧下窝矿区的原矿平均品位只有0.27%左右，一直是江西 高成本矿的代表，为了降低生产成本，下游炼厂也采取了混配其它高品矿的方式。 以目前枧下窝矿的实际生产水平来看，实际影响也就在4500-5000吨/月（LCE当量）。在去年四季度枧下 窝矿停产期间，下游的龙蟠时代也一直通过外购锂矿来维持碳酸锂生产。 虽然以推涨为主的反内卷逐渐淡化，但并不意味着反内卷政策就此结束，查超产、采矿权审查收紧等工作 仍在稳步推进中。 目前，做多逻辑是认为枧下窝矿短期不会马上复产，并有可能影响到江西其它7个锂矿 （宜春市此前要求8座涉锂资源矿权在9月30日前完成资源储量报告的更新工作）。虽然最终全停的可能性 较小，但枧 ...

"我们真切地希望'小作文'能少一些，碳酸锂价格在合理区间平稳运行。"李欢说。 期货日报记者留意到，过去几周，江西大厂矿区(宁德时代（300750）枧下窝矿区)停产的消息备受关 注，该消息也成为碳酸锂价格波动的核心原因之一。 "一会儿传言说停，一会儿又说没停，这些'小作文'太让人揪心了。我们干采购的，不关注行情肯定不 行，要是没及时察觉价格变动，错过了低价采购的机会，会被领导狠狠地批评一顿。"一家头部材料厂 的采购负责人李欢(化名)无奈地告诉期货日报记者，当市场行情随着"小作文"波动时，产业企业很"受 伤"。 作为下游材料厂的采购人员，李欢的工作是依据原材料价格变化制定相关采购策略。此前，他踩准节奏 选择了合适的价格进行套保，但几天后市场情绪又因"小作文"出现变化，价格朝着反方向走。 "作为产业企业，我们必须严格遵循套保规则，如果频繁地调整买卖策略，就有投机交易的嫌疑，可能 被财务和审计问责。"李欢说。 当下，大多数产业企业也面临和李欢一样的困境。碳酸锂价格被"小作文"牵着鼻子走，确实让整个行业 都陷入进退两难的境地。 从库存来看，当前碳酸锂市场仍处于累库状态。数据显示，截至8月7日当周，碳酸锂社会库存为14. ...