产业提速，拐点明晰，商业航天后续投资机会展望 20251225 摘要 商业航天板块年底迎来主题投资机会，行业基本面拐点确定，长期想象 空间巨大，受益于海外卫星概念催化及 SpaceX 上市预期。 本轮商业航天行情由太空算力中心概念驱动，市场对短期业绩容忍度提 升，关注卫星侧高弹性及抗通缩标的，如载荷侧天线（臻雷、铖昌、灿 勤、通宇信科）、电源平台和星间链路等新基建。 第五卫星项目涉及多种化工材料，陶瓷管壳市场潜力巨大，单颗卫星价 值量约 100 万元，未来市场空间可达百亿元级别，国瓷材料在该领域发 展迅速，毛利率高。 商业航天为建筑行业带来转型机会，上海港湾、东珠生态和中衡设计等 公司已在卫星能源管理系统、卫星相关业务和火箭厂房项目上有所突破。 机械制造板块在商业航天中主要集中于发射场设备、耗材制造以及火箭 与卫星结构件制造，关注安徽合力（火箭导流板）、恒立液压（起竖油 缸）、中集安瑞科（低温液氧储罐）和海兰股份（制氧制氮设备）。 Q&A 2025 年商业航天行业的基本面情况如何？ 从产业基本面角度来看，预计整个商业航天产业链将在 2027 年左右迎来拐点。 然而，从 2025 年至 2026 年，发热量同比 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of clustering effects in regions such as Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing, with significant advancements in key technologies like reusable rockets, low-cost satellites, and inter-satellite links [1] - According to Blue Arrow Aerospace, the Chinese commercial space industry is expected to experience a peak in the next three years, with reusable rocket technology maturing and transportation costs dropping below 30,000 yuan per kilogram, approaching the capabilities of overseas competitors [1] - The supply side is projected to see a high growth trend in the number of launches, while the demand side benefits from Guangdong's new policies that include low-altitude economy and space tourism as initial demonstration scenarios, expanding the application landscape [1] Industry Developments - The low-altitude economy has made significant breakthroughs in urban air traffic, industrial applications, and agricultural production, indicating a growing market potential [1] - The anticipated growth in space tourism demand is expected to further enhance the industry's market space [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the successful development of inter-satellite link technology by the team from National University of Defense Technology, achieving a precision measurement of better than 1.6 nanometers, which is the highest level reported to date [1][8] - This technology is crucial for the next-generation BeiDou satellite navigation system, enabling ultra-precise measurements for inter-satellite communication [1][8] Group 1: Inter-Satellite Link Development - The inter-satellite link is likened to a "highway" connecting satellites, allowing them to communicate and share positions in real-time, thus enabling global service coverage with only domestic ground stations [1][2] - The BeiDou system's third phase aims to establish a global navigation system, overcoming challenges posed by the inability to deploy ground stations globally [1][2] Group 2: Technical Challenges and Solutions - The team faced significant challenges in developing the inter-satellite link, including extreme conditions in space and the need for high precision over vast distances [3][4] - A new approach was adopted to enhance measurement efficiency by extending preprocessing time, which improved sensitivity by 30 times and achieved centimeter-level distance measurement [3][6] Group 3: Precision Orbit Determination - The construction of the inter-satellite link requires precise orbit determination of all satellites, which is a novel challenge without prior successful experiences [4][5] - The team developed a spatial collaborative measurement theory that allows multiple satellites to measure each other simultaneously, enhancing the accuracy of satellite positioning [5][6] Group 4: Ground System Integration - The integration of a ground system with the inter-satellite link is essential for managing the entire satellite constellation, enabling precise orbit determination and time synchronization [7][8] - The team innovated a "direct capture" method to ensure efficient communication between the ground system and satellites, addressing the challenges posed by the dynamic space environment [7][8] Group 5: Future Developments - The breakthrough in inter-satellite link technology is just a small step towards upgrading the next-generation BeiDou system, with plans for continuous evolution and the creation of a new mixed-link mechanism [8] - Future goals include overcoming challenges in intelligent networking technology to enhance the overall capabilities of the navigation system [8]