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太空光伏与“轨道数据中心”:为什么下一代能源与算力的战场,会在800km的高空?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-01-11 04:46
Core Viewpoint - Space photovoltaic technology is evolving from a supporting system for spacecraft to a core energy solution for next-generation space infrastructure, driven by the acceleration of global satellite deployment and the rising demand for space computing power [1] Group 1: Satellite Deployment and Market Dynamics - China applied for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites by December 2025, with 190,000 from the newly established "national team" [1] - The U.S. FCC approved SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the total approved to 15,000 [1] - The global spacecraft launch volume has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% over the past decade, with an expected launch number exceeding 4,300 by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 50% [3][1] Group 2: Space Computing Centers and Energy Requirements - The rise of space computing centers is opening new possibilities, with projects like China's "Trisolaris Computing Constellation" and SpaceX's Starcloud targeting space data center construction [2] - A potential 10GW space computing system could lead to a solar wing market size of several trillion yuan [2] - The evolution of satellite functions is reshaping energy system requirements, with significant increases in single-satellite power demands [10][12] Group 3: Energy Supply and Technological Developments - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" scenario, driven by the surge in satellite numbers and the rising power density of individual satellites [14] - Photovoltaic technology is the only efficient and stable energy form for satellites in space, with the need for larger solar wings leading to concerns about weight and cost [12] - The technology route for space photovoltaics is diversifying, with gallium arsenide (GaAs) batteries dominating the high-end market due to their efficiency, while silicon-based heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite technologies are gaining traction for large-scale applications [19][22] Group 4: Economic Considerations and Future Outlook - The explosion of space photovoltaics is reshaping the value logic of the photovoltaic industry, transitioning from a closed military aerospace system to commercial photovoltaic enterprises with large-scale manufacturing capabilities [25] - SpaceX's low launch costs encourage the use of lower-cost silicon-based batteries, while China's higher launch costs still favor the use of expensive GaAs batteries, although a shift towards silicon-based technologies is anticipated [26] - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite market could generate nearly 200 billion yuan in solar wing market space with the launch of 10,000 satellites, and the construction of a future 10GW space computing system could expand the market size to several trillion yuan [30]
东吴证券:太空算力中心具备颠覆性优势 HJT或为能源系统最优解
智通财经网· 2026-01-08 08:19
智通财经APP获悉,东吴证券发布研报称,相比传统地面数据中心,太空算力具备部署效率高、能源效 率佳、冷却成本低等颠覆性优势。硅基HJT电池凭借低温工艺、柔性兼容性和减重优势,最适配新一代 卷展式光伏系统,海外厂商已加速布局。同时,HJT亦为钙钛矿叠层的最优底电池,具备长期演进潜 力。重点推荐迈为股份(300751.SZ)、高测股份(688556.SH)。 东吴证券主要观点如下: 太空算力:AI时代算力供需失衡催生"轨道数据中心"新范式 在全球AI大模型推动下,数据中心电力缺口日益凸显,催生将高算力卫星部署于低/中轨的"太空算 力"新形态。相比传统地面数据中心,太空算力具备部署效率高、能源效率佳、冷却成本低等颠覆性优 势。以"之江实验室+国星宇航"推出的"三体计算星座"为例,首批已入轨12星,远期规划1000POPS算力 规模;海外SpaceX、谷歌、英伟达投资的初创企业Starcloud加速推进百GW级太空算力集群建设。 行业受政策波动影响风险,新技术研发不及预期风险,太空算力发展不及预期风险。 能源系统重量决定卫星综合成本,卷展式光伏阵列搭配柔性电池成发展关键 太空算力系统能源系统成本占比高达22%,决定卫 ...
产业提速,拐点明晰,商业航天后续投资机会展望
2025-12-26 02:12
产业提速,拐点明晰,商业航天后续投资机会展望 20251225 摘要 商业航天板块年底迎来主题投资机会,行业基本面拐点确定,长期想象 空间巨大,受益于海外卫星概念催化及 SpaceX 上市预期。 本轮商业航天行情由太空算力中心概念驱动,市场对短期业绩容忍度提 升,关注卫星侧高弹性及抗通缩标的,如载荷侧天线(臻雷、铖昌、灿 勤、通宇信科)、电源平台和星间链路等新基建。 第五卫星项目涉及多种化工材料,陶瓷管壳市场潜力巨大,单颗卫星价 值量约 100 万元,未来市场空间可达百亿元级别,国瓷材料在该领域发 展迅速,毛利率高。 商业航天为建筑行业带来转型机会,上海港湾、东珠生态和中衡设计等 公司已在卫星能源管理系统、卫星相关业务和火箭厂房项目上有所突破。 机械制造板块在商业航天中主要集中于发射场设备、耗材制造以及火箭 与卫星结构件制造,关注安徽合力(火箭导流板)、恒立液压(起竖油 缸)、中集安瑞科(低温液氧储罐)和海兰股份(制氧制氮设备)。 Q&A 2025 年商业航天行业的基本面情况如何? 从产业基本面角度来看,预计整个商业航天产业链将在 2027 年左右迎来拐点。 然而,从 2025 年至 2026 年,发热量同比 ...
“商业航天,不托关系连尽调资料都拿不到”
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-18 08:02
12月3日中午12点,在酒泉东风商业航天创新试验区,朱雀三号遥一火箭准时点火起飞。随即,乳白色 的4.5 m直径箭体在阳光与戈壁冷风中迅速拔起,虽然一级回收验证未成功,但资本市场中商业航天的 热度可没有被浇灭。 同花顺的商业航天板块,自12月5日以来创下历史新高,成交量也不断放大,一周成交量突 破万亿。朱雀三号发布以来截至12月15日,商业航天指数从1899.50点升至2111.59点,350只 成分股中大多数公司实现上涨,近百家公司涨幅超50%。 毫无意外,在AI之外,商业航天正在成为A股上的又一吸金赛道。 海外同此凉热,不断刷新估值的Space X最近被曝出要以1.5万亿美元冲刺上市的消息,几乎同一时间, OpenAI要把算力中心搬到太空,马斯克甚至要在太空建"戴森环"的计划也浮出了水面。 中美市场的同频,一二级市场的共振,顺着这些线索,我们去跟了几个身处商业航天赛道的投资人聊了 聊,他们虽背景不同,入局时间不同,但都给了我一个相同的答案,商业航天这次真的火了。 商业航天成了必选项 刚刚登陆资本市场的GPU新贵——摩尔线程和沐曦,以一种强大的势能影响着整个市场,而聪明的资本 总是在闻风而动:下一个GPU赛 ...
“商业航天,不托关系连尽调资料都拿不到”
投中网· 2025-12-18 06:45
同花顺的商业航天板块,自 12 月 5 日以来创下历史新高,成交量也不断放大,一周成交量突破万亿。朱雀三号发布以来截 至 12 月 15 日,商业航天指数从 1899.50 点升至 2111.59 点, 350 只成分股中大多数公司实现上涨,近百家公司涨幅超 50% 。 将投中网设为"星标⭐",第一时间收获最新推送 市场就突然"热起来了"。 作者丨 张雪 来源丨 投中网 毫无意外,在 AI 之外,商业航天正在成为 A 股上的又一吸金赛道。 海外同此凉热,不断刷新估值的 Space X 最近被曝出要以 1.5 万亿美元冲刺上市的消息,几乎同一时间, OpenAI 要把算 力中心搬到太空,马斯克甚至要在太空建"戴森环"的计划也浮出了水面。 中美市场的同频,一二级市场的共振,顺着这些线索,我们去跟了几个身处商业航天赛道的投资人聊了聊,他们虽背景不同, 入局时间不同,但都给了我一个相同的答案,商业航天这次真的火了。 12 月 3 日中午 12 点,在酒泉东风商业航天创新试验区,朱雀三号遥一火箭准时点火起飞。随即,乳白色的 4.5 m 直径箭 体在阳光与戈壁冷风中迅速拔起,虽然一级回收验证未成功,但资本市场中商业航天的 ...
【太平洋科技-每日观点&资讯】(2025-12-01)
远峰电子· 2025-11-30 12:26
Market Highlights - The main board saw significant gains with stocks like Igor (+10.01%), Putian Technology (+10.00%), and China Film (+9.99%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board experienced a surge with Qianzhao Optoelectronics (+20.01%) and Dongtian Micro (+20.00%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was led by Yongxin Zhicheng (+20.00%) and Xidi Micro (+14.62%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW LED (+2.82%) and SW Communication Engineering and Services (+2.53%) [1] Domestic News - Zhejiang Haiji Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. celebrated the completion of the world's first G4.5 generation TGV full-process production line, marking a significant milestone in MicroLED large-size display panels [1] - National Semiconductor announced the termination of the acquisition of 94.366% of Zhongxin Ningbo due to failure to reach an agreement within the expected timeframe [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the user base for generative AI products in China reached 515 million by mid-year, with applications expanding continuously [1] - Beijing's Space Data Center construction plan was released, with the first computational satellite "Chenguang No. 1" expected to be completed in about five years [1] Company Announcements - Century Huatong announced a share repurchase plan with a total fund of no less than 500 million yuan and no more than 1 billion yuan, with all repurchased shares to be canceled [3] - Focus Media increased its expected related party transactions for 2025 with Alibaba from 2.2 billion yuan to 2.7 billion yuan [3] - Xidi Micro reported the completion of a share reduction plan by a senior executive, reducing their holding from 3.18% to 2.44% after selling 3 million shares for approximately 50.67 million yuan [3] - Victory Nano announced a project investment of about 500 million yuan for a new laboratory focusing on integrated circuit failure analysis and reliability analysis services [3] Overseas News - The EU's RoHS directive has officially terminated the exemption for certain harmful substances in electronic equipment, affecting quantum dot cadmium regulations [2] - Toray Industries announced the successful development of a high-heat-resistant resin for semiconductor back-end processing, with plans for mass production by 2028 [2] - Samsung's advanced technology research institute discovered a mechanism that could reduce power consumption in NAND flash memory by up to 96% compared to existing technologies [2] - HP indicated that higher memory costs would begin to squeeze profit margins starting in May, prompting the company to seek cheaper suppliers and redesign some products [2]
太空算力,用电需求几何?
2025-11-10 03:34
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the space computing industry, focusing on the advancements in space power systems and the potential of space-based data processing, particularly in remote sensing applications [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Space Computing Advantages**: Space computing leverages near-infinite energy and efficient heat dissipation in space, significantly enhancing data processing efficiency and real-time capabilities, especially in remote sensing [1]. - **Solar Power Systems**: Current space power systems consist of solar panels, energy storage devices, and power management systems. The industry is transitioning from gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells to cost-effective and radiation-resistant perovskite solar cells [1][4]. - **Power Requirements**: Traditional satellites require hundreds to thousands of watts, while future computing satellites, such as Musk's 100G plan, will demand over 20,000 watts per satellite, posing challenges for solar panel area and cost [1][5]. - **Perovskite Solar Cells**: As a third-generation photovoltaic technology, perovskite cells exhibit natural radiation resistance and cost advantages, with laboratory efficiencies reaching 28%-29% and potential for 36%-37% when layered with silicon [1][7][8]. - **Challenges in Development**: The development of space computing centers faces challenges in energy systems, launch costs, and communication technologies. Key factors include reusable rocket technology, new laser communication systems, and reducing solar panel costs [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Current State of Space Power Industry**: The space power industry has made significant technological and application advancements, with solar power in space being eight times more efficient than on Earth, allowing for continuous power supply unaffected by weather [2]. - **Commercial Space Opportunities**: Five key areas in commercial space to watch include space power, launch vehicles, computing and payload integration, inter-satellite and new communication technologies, and operational services, all of which present substantial investment opportunities [2][15][16]. - **Future of Flexible Solar Wings**: Progress has been made in developing flexible solar wings, transitioning from semi-rigid to fully flexible designs, although cost and manufacturing challenges remain [10]. - **Space Environment Utilization**: Space computing centers can optimize computational capabilities by utilizing the natural conditions of space, such as lower temperatures for heat management and higher energy acquisition rates [11]. - **Differences in Power Demand**: Space computing requires significantly higher power than traditional satellite internet, necessitating advanced solar wing designs and integrated systems to manage the increased energy needs [12]. Conclusion - The space computing industry is poised for rapid growth, driven by advancements in solar technology and the increasing demand for computational power in space. The successful implementation of new technologies and materials will be crucial in overcoming existing challenges and capitalizing on investment opportunities in this emerging sector [13][14].