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2019-2025年9月中旬普通混煤(4500大卡)市场价格变动统计分析
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-29 02:15
Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031, highlighting significant price fluctuations in the market for ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) is 529.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.51% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years occurred in mid-September 2022, reaching 1016.7 yuan per ton [1]
煤价还要涨!多重逻辑共振下的“黑金”行情
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 10:36
Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal market has entered a strong rebound since August 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints, demand recovery, and supportive policies, indicating a clear upward price trajectory for coal in the future [1][4]. Supply Side - Continuous tightening of supply has laid the foundation for rising coal prices, with significant declines in domestic production. In August 2025, the output of industrial raw coal was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with a daily average production of 12.6 million tons [1]. - Strict safety and environmental inspections in major production areas, such as Shanxi and Shaanxi, have led to reduced production and shutdowns of some coal mines, exacerbating supply tightness [1]. Import Market - The import market has also contracted, with August 2025 data showing that China imported 32.575 million tons of thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31% but a month-on-month increase of 25.35%. Cumulatively, imports from January to August 2025 were 227.492 million tons, down 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in international coal prices, domestic import willingness remains low, influenced by global market dynamics, including Colombia's coal export ban to Israel, which has raised transportation costs and indirectly pushed international coal prices up [2]. Demand Side - Multiple favorable factors are driving demand, with increased coal consumption due to insufficient hydropower output during summer. In August, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants reached 2.2 million tons, highlighting coal's role as a "safety net" energy source [2]. - The demand from non-electric sectors, such as steel and cement, is rapidly recovering, with the significant rise in coke prices reflecting strong demand from the steel industry [2][3]. Policy Support - The subtle shift in coal policy in 2025 has become a crucial support for prices, moving from "supply guarantee and price suppression" to "price stabilization and support." The defined "green range" for thermal coal prices is set between 570-770 yuan/ton, with no enforced price suppression [3]. - State-owned enterprises are implementing dynamic pricing mechanisms, with local state-owned enterprises anchoring prices at a 770 yuan ceiling, encouraging spot prices to align with long-term contract prices [3]. Price Outlook - The current coal market exhibits significant structural price increases, with spot prices for thermal coal surpassing state enterprise contract prices, and there is potential for prices to approach the 770 yuan/ton level set by local state enterprises [4]. - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to continue due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand effects, and increased infrastructure investment, with policies providing a safety net for prices [4][5].
2019-2025年8月下旬普通混煤(4500大卡)市场价格变动统计分析
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-20 02:33
Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031, highlighting market trends and potential [1] Price Trends - As of late August 2025, the market price for ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) is 557.4 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.26% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same period was in August 2022, reaching 943.8 yuan per ton [1]
2019-2025年8月中旬普通混煤(4500大卡)市场价格变动统计分析
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-06 01:27
Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031, highlighting market price trends and historical data [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) is 564.5 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.47% and a month-on-month increase of 4.34% [1] - The highest recorded price in the last five years for ordinary mixed coal was 908.3 yuan per ton in mid-August 2022 [1]
2019-2025年7月下旬普通混煤(4500大卡)市场价格变动统计分析
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-08-10 01:14
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the market price of ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) in late July 2025 is 518.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.01% and a month-on-month increase of 3.33% [1] - The price of ordinary mixed coal reached its peak in late July 2022 at 927.5 yuan/ton, indicating significant price fluctuations over the past five years [1]