由于政府对供应和价格控制方面，很大程度上抵消需求疲软的影响，故该行在2026年初对中国煤炭的看 法转为中性。然而，过去数周內局势变得更加紧张，导致供应风险加剧。即使该行早前已下调对中国煤 炭进口的预期，但由于政策执行仍不明朗，供应中断的潜在危机仍为市场带来额外挑战，这可能会提振 市场情绪，推进囤货速度，最终推高煤炭价格。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，将兖矿能源(01171)今明年盈利预测分别上调29%及34%，其 目标价由11.5港元上调至17港元，其评级由"中性"升至"买入"；将中国神华(01088)2026年至2027年盈利 预测上调10%至12%，其目标价由43港元上调至50港元，其评级由"中性"升至"买入"。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2026 年 03 月 02 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 进口扰动，助推煤价持续上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.2.21-2026.2.28） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 2 月 28 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 584、670、751 元/吨，环比上涨 24、28、29 元/吨。供 给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 172.97 万吨，环比上周增加 27.7 万吨，增幅 19.07%，但同比下降 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张益 S0350124100016 zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 徐萌 S0350125070001 xum02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/02/27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 11.2% | 11.3% | 24.5% | | 沪深 300 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 18.7% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：进口煤性价比已不在，节后 煤价预期向上（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-02-24 《煤炭开采行业周报：本周煤价继续上涨，印尼煤 炭减产信息扰动（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-02-08 《能源开采行业深度报告：解构国内用电结构，探 寻电力需求增长引擎（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2026-02-03 《煤炭开采行业周报：煤价本周开启 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and a reduction in imports, which is expected to support coal prices in the near future [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42%, indicating strong demand [1]. - The report suggests that the current coal prices are under less pressure for significant declines due to lower port inventories compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines to improve the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [5]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, particularly in Henan province, focusing on intelligent mining and accident prevention [5]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting no significant changes [6][8]. - The report indicates that international thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [7]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel as of February 20, 2026, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [12]. 4. Bohai Rim Port Inventory - Coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.96% week-on-week, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026 [17]. - The report notes a significant increase in both coal inflow and outflow at these ports, indicating a robust market activity [17]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, averaging 26.78 RMB/ton as of February 13, 2026 [24]. - International freight rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others decreased [24]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and expected earnings per share (EPS) [29].

海运动煤进口现状及节后展望 20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 印尼煤炭减产计划（RKB）设定为 6 亿吨，较去年预估产量减少约 1.75 亿吨，对中国煤炭进口产生重大影响，引发市场对供应紧张的担忧。 受印尼减产影响，中国沿海电厂招标价格大幅上涨，3,800 卡印尼煤中 标价一周内上涨 34 元至 499 元，部分电厂甚至出现无人投标现象，反 映市场对高价煤的谨慎态度。 印尼煤供应紧张促使贸易商转向俄罗斯、澳洲等地寻求替代货源，导致 澳洲煤价格暴涨，一周内指数上涨超过 4 美元，整体替代来源价格呈现 快速上涨趋势。 国内动力煤价格受进口煤带动出现上涨迹象，环渤海市场供应偏紧，价 格迅速攀升，从 2 月 6 日的 698 元/吨涨至 2 月 9 日的 711 元/吨，预计 节前或将继续上涨。 当前国内煤炭市场供需紧张，港口库存同比去年减少近 400 万吨，部分 保供产能退出市场，两会期间安监力度加大，短期内国内供应端难以显 著改善。 Q&A 其他国家如俄罗斯、澳洲等地煤炭供应情况如何？ 由于印尼煤炭供应紧张，一些贸易商将目光转向俄罗斯、澳洲等地。澳洲煤最 明显，上周指数暴涨 4 美元，从 75 美元多 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal sector as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2]. - The report anticipates a new upward cycle for coal and downstream thermal power demand starting in 2026, driven by significant production cuts in Indonesia, which are expected to accelerate global coal prices [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [4]. Market Tracking - As of February 5, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 702 RMB/ton, up 2 RMB/ton (0.3%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations of a slight recovery in demand during the off-season [4][6]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the average domestic price is expected to end a four-year decline and begin to rise in 2026, with a projected average price of 683 RMB/ton for Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao [4][26]. - The report highlights that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton (-4.5%) from the previous week [34]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao decreased by 20,000 tons (-3.5%), with total inventories at northern ports down by 184,500 tons (-5.5%) [21]. - The report indicates an increase in railway inflow to Qinhuangdao Port, with a total of 479,000 tons, up 76,000 tons (18.9%) from the previous week [25]. International Coal Prices - The report mentions that the Newcastle coal price has increased by 2 USD/ton (2.3%) as of February 5, 2026, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal [16][41]. - Indonesian coal prices have also seen an increase, with Q4200 coal priced at 48 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton (1.2%) [19].

市场数据：2026 年 2 月 5 日 收盘价（元/股）： 15.44 年内最高/最低（元/ 股）： 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： 914.65 总市值（亿元）： 1,549.79 资料来源：常闻 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 动力煤 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 买入-A(维持) 印尼煤出口暂停催化海外煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2026 年 2 月 6 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业官员表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减 产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告 称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 事件点评 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 14.24 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 7.80 | | 资 ...

市场数据：2026 年 2 月 5 日 收盘价（元/股）： 15.44 年内最高/最低（元/ 股）： 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： 914.65 总市值（亿元）： 1,549.79 资料来源：常闻 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 14.24 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 7.80 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 动力煤 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 买入-A(维持) 印尼煤出口暂停催化海外煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2026 年 2 月 6 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业官员表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减 产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告 称可能 ...

浙商证券（601878）指出，展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上， 价格有望抬升，叠加成本下行，预计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较 大。年初至今，焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨，焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位，预计一季度 业绩显著改善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司，未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。 煤炭股午后走强，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展(01277)涨8.18%，报 1.72港元；兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨3.62%， 报43.54港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 华源证券发布研报称，2023年以来，煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势，2025Q3是除2023Q4之外，少 有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4 板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上，2026年1 ...

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a comprehensive increase in coal prices across various types, with anthracite coal showing the most significant rise [1] Price Changes Summary - Anthracite coal (washed middle block) price reached 904.2 CNY/ton, an increase of 41.2 CNY/ton, representing a 4.8% rise [1] - Shanxi premium mixed coal (5500 kcal) price was 702.7 CNY/ton, up by 8.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.2% increase [1] - Coking coal (main coking coal) price stood at 1482.1 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.1 CNY/ton, indicating a 0.5% increase [1] - Additionally, the price of coking coal (quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke, with ash content between 12.01% and 13.50%) remained stable at 1346.4 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous period [1]