港口煤价突破 700 元/吨,神华复牌龙头价值不改 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 08 月 16 日 分析师: 杜冲 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 Email: duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 17.844.03 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 17.446.59 | 行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 1、《"276工作日"生产自律再现, 煤炭供给收缩预期强化》2025-08-12 《供给收紧预期加深,煤价短期 2. 震荡偏强》2025-08-10 《短期基本面偏强,煤价升势料 3. 延续》 2025-08-03 | 重占公司甚本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | | (元) | 2023A | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to supply constraints caused by safety inspections and adverse weather conditions, alongside rising demand during peak consumption seasons [1][2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From June 23 to August 7, the price of CCI5500 thermal coal rose from 615 RMB/ton to 679 RMB/ton, an increase of 64 RMB/ton, with lower calorific value coal experiencing even greater price hikes [1] - The domestic coal market is currently tight, with coal inventories at user enterprises dropping by over 50% since the end of June, while supply is limited due to weather, production policies, and safety inspections [1][2] - Heavy rainfall has led to the suspension of production in several coal mines, with 12 out of 21 surveyed mines in Inner Mongolia affected, totaling a capacity of 67.5 million tons [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, dropping to 609 RMB/ton by mid-June, before gradually rising again [4] - Analysts predict that thermal coal prices in northern ports may exceed 700 RMB/ton in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and seasonal demand peaks [5][6] - Despite the potential for prices to reach 700 RMB/ton, surpassing 800 RMB/ton remains challenging due to the need for improved industrial demand and the risk of transferring losses to downstream coal-consuming enterprises [5][6] Market Sentiment and Purchasing Behavior - The purchasing behavior of large power generation companies has shifted towards less transparent procurement methods, reducing market activity and impacting price dynamics [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with many stakeholders still wary of price increases due to previous downward trends in coal prices [3]

整体来看，现阶段物流环节对煤炭向港口及下游转移形成制约，造成沿海煤炭市场呈现供给偏弱、需求 释放缓慢的局面，待时段性影响消退，整体煤炭运输环节恢复周转秩序，需求端增量大概率强于供给端 增量，沿海煤炭价格仍存一定的上行空间。 新华财经太原8月6日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网6日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于668元／吨， 环比上行3元／吨。该网分析认为，多因素交织作用于沿海煤炭市场，买卖双方博弈升级，基于集港货 源不足、终端采购需求陆续释放等因素，部分贸易商捂盘惜售、看涨情绪高涨，接连抬高报价，对沿海 煤价形成较强支撑。在长协、现货价格双双上涨带动下，环渤海动力煤价格指数连续4周上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 供应方面，频繁降雨制约主产地煤炭生产及运输作业，部分路段封闭维修施工影响煤炭运输，再加上发 运港口价格倒挂矛盾加剧，整体煤炭外运积极性较差，大秦铁路日运量已连续12日运行在100万吨及以 下水平，当周日均运量92万吨。集港货源严重不足，致使港口煤种结构性失衡情况加重，进而支撑部分 贸易商挺价心理，助推港口煤价上行。 需求方面，台风对沿海地区影响减弱，周度后期高温势力快速发展，居民用电负荷再次提升，用电需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will rebound to the "8" range due to dual support from supply and demand, with a price center expected to maintain around 700 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity demand, with total power generation growth reaching 8.57% year-on-year, and thermal power growth at 5.48% [2][7]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to production checks and adverse weather conditions, leading to a structural shortage of coal [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are on an upward trend, driven by supply constraints and increased electricity demand [2][7]. - It mentions that the daily coal consumption of power plants has risen to over 6 million tons, with further upward potential [2][7]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 4.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report details the performance of various coal companies, with Jin Control Coal Industry experiencing the largest decline of 11.94% [17][20]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the tightening supply in the coal market, with significant drops in railway shipments and port inventories [2][9]. - It highlights the expected recovery in production capacity in mid-August, which may influence price dynamics [2][7]. 4. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, stable performance, and growth potential, such as Lu'an Huanneng, Jin Control Coal Industry, and others [3][11].

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a significant rebound on July 29, with coal ETFs turning from decline to an increase of nearly 1%, and major coal companies like Lu'an Huanneng seeing a surge of nearly 6% [1][3] - The primary driver for this rebound is the rise in Asian coal prices, which have reached a five-month high due to increased electricity demand from air conditioning amid high temperatures and reduced inventory levels [1][3] - Newcastle thermal coal futures in Australia rose to $115.50 per ton, marking the highest level since February of this year, despite still being approximately 75% lower than the peak prices seen after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [3] Group 2 - Domestic coal prices are showing signs of increase, with Qinhuangdao port thermal coal prices rising to 645 yuan per ton, an increase of 11 yuan per ton week-on-week as of July 26 [5] - The price of thermal coal from Shanxi reached 580 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton week-on-week, while Inner Mongolia's coal prices also saw increases [5] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), a rebound in thermal coal prices is expected in the second half of the year, particularly as the heating season begins in October, suggesting that the low point for thermal coal prices may have occurred in June [6] Group 3 - The outlook for coking coal prices is also positive, with expectations of a rebound; however, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on whether production cuts are realized [6] - Open-source securities indicate that the coal sector fundamentals remain favorable, with the current low holdings in coal stocks suggesting it may be an opportune time for investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Asian coal prices have reached their highest level since February, driven by increased electricity demand due to high temperatures and reduced inventories [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The benchmark price for Asian coal has risen to a five-month high, with Australian Newcastle thermal coal futures increasing to $115.50 per ton, the highest level for near-month contracts since February [1] - Current coal prices are approximately 75% lower than the recent peak reached after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - High temperatures have led to a surge in coal-fired power generation in Tokyo, reaching a ten-month high [1] - Japan, a major importer of Australian coal, is experiencing increased demand for coal due to the ongoing heatwave [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs indicate that East Asia may experience temperatures above normal levels in the future, which could pose further upside risks to coal demand [1]

Core Insights - The price of thermal coal has seen an increase this week, driven by a warmer macro policy environment and improved market confidence [1] - Rainy weather in major production areas has hindered coal production recovery, supporting a slight rebound in prices at production sites [1] - Market sentiment remains optimistic at ports, with traders continuing to raise prices slightly [1] Price Trends - As of July 18, the reference prices for "CCTD Bohai Rim thermal coal spot" for three specifications (5500K, 5000K, 4500K) are 639, 575, and 509 RMB/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 12, 13, and 13 RMB/ton [1] - The overall trend indicates a positive shift in coal prices across various grades due to market dynamics [1] Market Activity - Power plants are showing moderate purchasing enthusiasm, primarily fulfilling long-term contracts with limited stockpiling needs being released [1] - The combination of production challenges and steady demand from power plants is influencing the coal market's pricing structure [1]