行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.10.12-2025.10.19） 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 10 月 17 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 578、657、748 元/吨，较 10 月 11 日分别上涨 36、41、39 元/吨。供给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 149.14 万吨， ...

煤价急涨下，板块怎么看？20251019 摘要 国内动力煤价格倒挂现象依然存在，陕西、山西、鄂尔多斯等地折算含 税价高于港口价格，但进口煤价格优势明显，尤其考虑到海运费上涨因 素。 今年进口煤以现货为主，长协量少，进口量调节空间大，但受国内政策 指导，大量超预期进口概率不大，前 9 个月进口量同比减少接近 1 亿吨， 减量趋势有望维持。 北方港口煤炭库存大幅下降，已回落至 2023 年和 2024 年同期水平， 沿海电厂库存也出现下降，表明电厂补库需求增加，是近期煤价上涨原 因之一。 国内焦煤价格随动力煤上涨，金堂港山西产主焦达到年内次高水平，供 应端受山西减产影响较大，钢厂生产积极性高，对焦煤价格形成支撑。 煤炭板块普涨，弹性品种和焦煤端涨幅居前，反映基本面与风格共振， 电厂采购需求超预期，市场寻求低位防守板块。 动力煤价格短期内或在 750 元/吨左右震荡，但四季度供需缺口概率大， 叠加安全检查趋严，供应增量受限，有望带动煤价异动上行，甚至突破 800 元/吨。 进口煤炭市场情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）的进口与前几年有显著区别。今年年初签订的长协量非常少， 大部分以现货为主，这使得进口量具有调节空间。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 如何看待动力煤凌冽涨势？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近 5 年哪些时间段出现过比较普遍的单日动力煤价上涨超过 10 元/吨？和当前基本面有哪些相 似之处？通过复盘发现，动力煤单日煤价快速上涨的原因往往都和政策 or 突发事件让供应端 收紧有关，若需求端同时存在天气扰动 or 经济预期改善，则进一步推升煤价上涨弹性。我们认 为，考虑到超产核查持续推进+冷冬概率较大，基本面条件和过去煤价超预期上涨时间段较为 相似，因此 2025Q4 煤价同样存在超预期上涨可能。交易层面，考虑到低 PB+低筹码+红利， 多维度护航，建议重视煤炭底部反转机会&攻守兼备特征。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ...

Group 1 - Recent coal prices have shown a slight upward trend, leading to an improvement in the overall operating conditions of the company [1] - The company is making steady progress on its ongoing mining projects, with the Qiyuan mine entering the joint trial operation phase and expected to complete acceptance by the fourth quarter [1] - The Bolin coal mine is advancing according to the construction plan in an orderly manner [1]

Core Insights - In late September, coal prices across various types in China experienced a comprehensive increase, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Price Changes Summary - Anthracite coal (washed middle block, volatile matter ≤8%) price reached 917.0 CNY/ton, up by 47.9 CNY/ton, a rise of 5.5% [1] - Ordinary mixed coal (Shanxi mixed coal with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) price was 544.0 CNY/ton, increasing by 14.7 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.8% [1] - Shanxi big mixed coal (higher quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) price stood at 616.9 CNY/ton, up by 17.6 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.9% [1] - Shanxi premium mixed coal (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) price was 706.9 CNY/ton, increasing by 17.0 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.5% [1] - Datong mixed coal (Datong produced mixed coal with a calorific value of 5800 kcal) price reached 744.9 CNY/ton, up by 17.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.4% [1] - Coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content <1%) price was 1478.6 CNY/ton, increasing by 57.2 CNY/ton, a rise of 4.0% [1] - In summary, anthracite coal prices continued to rise, while the trend for thermal coal shifted from divergence to collective increase, and coking coal prices reversed from decline to increase [1] Coking Coal and Coke Price Summary - In late September, the price of coke (quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke, ash content between 12.01% and 13.50%) was 1346.4 CNY/ton, down by 14.3 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal market has entered a strong rebound since August 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints, demand recovery, and supportive policies, indicating a clear upward price trajectory for coal in the future [1][4]. Supply Side - Continuous tightening of supply has laid the foundation for rising coal prices, with significant declines in domestic production. In August 2025, the output of industrial raw coal was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with a daily average production of 12.6 million tons [1]. - Strict safety and environmental inspections in major production areas, such as Shanxi and Shaanxi, have led to reduced production and shutdowns of some coal mines, exacerbating supply tightness [1]. Import Market - The import market has also contracted, with August 2025 data showing that China imported 32.575 million tons of thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31% but a month-on-month increase of 25.35%. Cumulatively, imports from January to August 2025 were 227.492 million tons, down 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in international coal prices, domestic import willingness remains low, influenced by global market dynamics, including Colombia's coal export ban to Israel, which has raised transportation costs and indirectly pushed international coal prices up [2]. Demand Side - Multiple favorable factors are driving demand, with increased coal consumption due to insufficient hydropower output during summer. In August, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants reached 2.2 million tons, highlighting coal's role as a "safety net" energy source [2]. - The demand from non-electric sectors, such as steel and cement, is rapidly recovering, with the significant rise in coke prices reflecting strong demand from the steel industry [2][3]. Policy Support - The subtle shift in coal policy in 2025 has become a crucial support for prices, moving from "supply guarantee and price suppression" to "price stabilization and support." The defined "green range" for thermal coal prices is set between 570-770 yuan/ton, with no enforced price suppression [3]. - State-owned enterprises are implementing dynamic pricing mechanisms, with local state-owned enterprises anchoring prices at a 770 yuan ceiling, encouraging spot prices to align with long-term contract prices [3]. Price Outlook - The current coal market exhibits significant structural price increases, with spot prices for thermal coal surpassing state enterprise contract prices, and there is potential for prices to approach the 770 yuan/ton level set by local state enterprises [4]. - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to continue due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand effects, and increased infrastructure investment, with policies providing a safety net for prices [4][5].

送放心 1 - 7 - 7 - 1 - 2 - 2025 年 09 月 22 日 寿研究报 严天鹏 A0230524090004 vantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 vanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 版 行业 给偏紧，节前补库需求旺 煤价将持续上涨 煤炭行业周报（2025.9.12-2025.9.19） 相关研究 联系人 施侍瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示 动力煤方面，截至 9 月 19 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 545、612、704 元/吨，环比分别上涨 23、27、24 元/吨。供 给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 177.74 万吨，环比上周熠加 16.56 万吨、上升 10.27%、同比上升 6.57%。受产 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，近期，主产区超产核查影响料持续，且国庆节前煤矿存主动 减产预期，长短期供给收缩预期均强化。库存端，据铁路部门消息，大秦线秋季集中检修将于10月7日 展开，为期20天。一旦检修开始，随着运量的下降，预计秦皇岛港煤炭库存也将跟随减少，使得港口场 存中的优质、可流通的市场煤资源更为紧张。本周港口煤价明显反弹，重新站上700元/吨，展望9月下 旬与10月上旬，预计在"弱平衡"格局下港口资源结构性紧缺情况将主导煤价稳中有升。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 主产区严查煤矿超产，或对后续煤矿产能释放产生持续影响。近期，内蒙古自治区能源局对全区299处 生产煤矿进行核查，发现2024年-2025年6月共有93处煤矿存在超公告产能生产问题，超产比例达31%， 其中鄂尔多斯市问题尤为突出，共有82处煤矿超产。2025年1—6月单月超产10%以上的15处煤矿(均位 于鄂尔多斯市)已被责令停产整改，并将由专家核查后续生产安排，全面整改合格后方可恢复生产。屡 次超产的煤矿将面临从严处罚，自治区内相关盟市需建立动态监管机制，严格落实产能公告制度，从源 头防范超能力生产行为，确保煤矿安全生产秩序。 国庆节 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Energy, and China Shenhua [5][7]. Core Insights - The coal price has surpassed 700 RMB/ton, with expectations for continued upward momentum due to tight supply and resilient demand [7]. - Supply constraints are driven by three factors: ongoing "super production checks," adverse weather affecting coal production, and increased safety inspections due to significant events [7]. - Demand remains strong, particularly for electricity generation, supported by high temperatures and robust non-electric coal demand [7]. - China Shenhua is highlighted for its asset acquisition plans and mid-term dividend announcements, indicating strong growth potential and value retention [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain high dividend payouts [12][13]. - The operational tracking of major coal companies shows varied production and sales performance, with China Shenhua's coal production at 81.3 million tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [15]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the port coal price has risen, with the price of Q5500 grade coal at 703 RMB/ton, a 2.33% increase week-on-week [8]. - The report tracks various coal prices, including thermal and coking coal, indicating stable pricing trends despite fluctuations in demand and supply [8]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The report provides insights into coal production levels and inventory, indicating a slight increase in daily production rates across sample mines [8][15]. - The inventory levels are monitored closely, with specific attention to the coal supply chain and logistics [8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report highlights the daily coal consumption by power plants, which remains robust, supporting the overall demand for coal [8]. - It also tracks the performance of downstream industries, such as steel production, which is crucial for coking coal demand [8]. 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector's performance is analyzed, showing a slight decline of 0.9% week-on-week, with individual stock performances varying significantly [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to supply constraints caused by safety inspections and adverse weather conditions, alongside rising demand during peak consumption seasons [1][2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From June 23 to August 7, the price of CCI5500 thermal coal rose from 615 RMB/ton to 679 RMB/ton, an increase of 64 RMB/ton, with lower calorific value coal experiencing even greater price hikes [1] - The domestic coal market is currently tight, with coal inventories at user enterprises dropping by over 50% since the end of June, while supply is limited due to weather, production policies, and safety inspections [1][2] - Heavy rainfall has led to the suspension of production in several coal mines, with 12 out of 21 surveyed mines in Inner Mongolia affected, totaling a capacity of 67.5 million tons [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, dropping to 609 RMB/ton by mid-June, before gradually rising again [4] - Analysts predict that thermal coal prices in northern ports may exceed 700 RMB/ton in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and seasonal demand peaks [5][6] - Despite the potential for prices to reach 700 RMB/ton, surpassing 800 RMB/ton remains challenging due to the need for improved industrial demand and the risk of transferring losses to downstream coal-consuming enterprises [5][6] Market Sentiment and Purchasing Behavior - The purchasing behavior of large power generation companies has shifted towards less transparent procurement methods, reducing market activity and impacting price dynamics [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with many stakeholders still wary of price increases due to previous downward trends in coal prices [3]