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唯品会(VIPS):25Q2前瞻:收入及利润趋势符合预期,用户趋势稳步改善
CMS· 2025-07-01 08:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue and GMV trends are expected to align with guidance, with a projected revenue decline of 4% year-on-year, while GMV growth is anticipated to turn positive. Profitability is expected to remain stable, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin projected at around 8%. The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth in the second half of the year due to improved demand in wearable categories and enhanced subsidy efficiency in standard products [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for the company remains positive, supported by its brand reputation for authentic discount sales and supply chain advantages, which help maintain platform value and core customer base. The company’s ongoing dividend payments and share buybacks reflect management's confidence in operations [1][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for 2023 is 112.856 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 3.9%, followed by a slight decrease of 1.0% in 2025. Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 9.510 billion yuan for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39.1% [2][9]. - The target valuation for the company is set at $19.10, with the current stock price at $15.12. The report indicates a total market capitalization of $7.8 billion and a PE ratio of 5.9 for 2023 [3][4]. User and Market Trends - User trends are showing steady improvement, with total user numbers expected to be close to flat year-on-year, and SVIP users projected to maintain double-digit growth. The company’s performance during the 618 shopping festival was robust, with significant sales in summer items and 3C digital products [1][4].