周二公布的美国9月标普全球服务业PMI初值录得53.9，低于市场预期54，前值位54.5；美国9月标普全球制造业PMI初值 录得52，符合市场预期，前值位53。 标普全球首席经济学家威廉姆森表示，9月份产出进一步强劲增长，为美国企业今年迄今表现最好的一个季度画上了圆 满的句号。PMI调查数据与美国经济第三季度2.2%的年化增长率一致。然而，月度数据显示，经济增长已从7月份的近 期峰值放缓，9月份企业也缩减了招聘，未来生产面临一些下行风险。需求疲软的情况限制了企业定价权。尽管关税再 次被认为是制造业和服务业投入成本上升的一个驱动因素，但能够提高销售价格并将这些成本转嫁给客户的公司数量有 所下降，这暗示利润率受到挤压，但对通胀放缓是个好兆头。制造业方面也有迹象表明，令人失望的销售增长已导致库 存以前所未有的速度积累，这也可能在未来几个月进一步帮助缓解通胀。尽管如此，调查数据仍表明，未来几个月消费 者通胀仍将高于央行2%的目标。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，关税对消费者通胀的影响"并非主要因素"，我们预计关税将是一次性传导效应，到明年年底就 会结束。我们从不考虑政治因素。很多人不相信我们，很多人说我们是出于政治动机，这纯 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index strengthened, reaching an intraday high of 98.67 before closing up 0.43% at 98.62 [1][2] - Spot gold opened with a jump but fell throughout the day, hitting an intraday low of $3325.19 before closing down 0.29% at $3338.55 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver rose by 0.56%, closing at $38.10 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding expectations of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8 [3] - The US August S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.4, a two-month low, below expectations of 54.2 and the previous value of 55.7 [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 were 235,000, marking the largest increase in three months, above the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 224,000 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75% [4] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 13.3%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 51.5% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 35.3% [4] Trading Sentiment - Recent strong S&P data indicates potential continued price increases, leading to a stronger dollar and slight pressure on gold, while silver shows resilience due to its industrial properties [5] - Market participants are awaiting comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank conference to assess the validity of September rate cut expectations [5] - The baseline scenario suggests that the US may face "stagflation" due to tariff impacts, providing some support for precious metals, which are expected to continue high-level fluctuations [5]