不仅如此，从更长远的角度来看，股市的上涨正变得近乎抛物线般。对于任何在加密货币时代之前就经 验丰富的投资者来说，那个时代的所谓"HODL"一族（意指坚定持币不动的人）对近乎垂直的市场走势 几乎毫无畏惧，而这种走势通常是一个警示信号。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美股看似势不可挡，但投资者不应沾沾自喜，因为有多个迹象表明，这轮涨势比表面看起来更为脆弱。 对市场而言，今年是如坐过山车般的一年，市场经历了关税战、局部冲突、对美元武器化的担忧、人工 智能领域的支出热潮，以及一些备受瞩目的破产案——用摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙令人印象深刻 的措辞来说，就是"蟑螂"。 然而，尽管市场动荡不安，但美股仍非常接近历史最高点。 而且，下跌可能会非常剧烈。估值虽然不能告诉你市场何时会下跌，但可以很好地预示它最终会跌多 深。目前，美国股市的多项估值指标综合平均值达到了百年来有记录的最高水平。如果市场可能像在其 他估值异常高企时期那样下跌30%至50%，这并不能给今天投资股票的人带来太大信心。 从一个非常现实的层面来看，估值也正在变得高昂。以平均收入计算，购买一份标普500指数合约所需 的工作时长已飙 ...

Group 1 - The current rally in the U.S. stock market appears fragile, with multiple indicators suggesting underlying vulnerabilities that exceed surface appearances [1] - The market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, influenced by trade wars, real conflicts, concerns over the weaponization of the dollar, and a surge in AI investments, alongside notable bankruptcy cases [1] - Despite ongoing turbulence, stock indices remain near historical highs, which may signal a warning for seasoned investors who have weathered previous market cycles [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis reveals a concerning trend: while the S&P 500 index reaches new highs, the number of constituent stocks hitting new lows is increasing, indicating a "negative divergence" [4] - Historical patterns suggest that high valuation levels can lead to substantial market corrections, with past instances showing declines of 30% to 50% when valuations peaked [4] - The current valuation metrics for U.S. stocks have surpassed a century-old record, raising alarms about potential future declines [4] Group 3 - From a purchasing power perspective, the time required to earn enough to buy a contract of the S&P 500 index has exceeded 200 hours, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels and the peak in 2000 [7] - The high proportion of stock ownership among U.S. households indicates a potential for significant selling pressure, as retail investors often drive valuations to unsustainable levels [10] - Despite prevailing optimism in the market, numerous warning signs suggest a possible trend reversal, emphasizing the importance of protective investment strategies [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the changes in net long and short positions of stock fund managers in the S&P 500 index as reported by the CFTC [1] Group 2 - As of the week ending July 29, stock fund managers increased their net long positions by 18,743 contracts, bringing the total to 869,641 contracts [1] - Concurrently, net short positions rose by 32,269 contracts, resulting in a total of 363,032 contracts [1]