智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2023-2035年，预计针叶浆、阔叶浆产能合计增长3600万 吨，带动木材需求扩张1.36亿吨，其中超过90%增量需求来自中国和南美。分国内外市场看，全球桉木 看巴西，亩产仍有提升空间；中国桉木看广西，营林方式有待升级。供给方面，随着国内制浆产能扩 张，2015-2022年中国阔叶木片进口量从971万吨快速增长至1758万吨，进口均价高点也在22年来到212 美元/吨，其后随着下游需求及浆价回落，以及国内制浆用木片供给增加，进口量及价格均有所回落。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 阔叶木材需求预计快速增长，桉木成本优势显著 2023-2035年预计针叶浆、阔叶浆产能合计增长3600万吨，带动木材需求扩张1.36亿吨，其中超过90%增 量需求来自中国和南美。南美巴西桉木、智利亮果桉生长效率明显优于马占相思等其他阔叶木，从分布 来看，巴西、中国、印度、澳大利亚、乌拉圭、智利等国是主要桉树种植国。 全球桉木看巴西，亩产仍有提升空间 2004-2023年，巴西桉木人工林种植面积从320万公顷增长至755万公顷，其中04-14年CAGR约8.1%，15 年后增长明显放缓，14-23年C ...

Macro - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift from "catching up" to "leading" in technology innovation, indicating a strategic focus on achieving technological advancements [4] - The construction of a modern industrial system highlights a dual-driven approach of advanced manufacturing and high-quality service industries [5] - The importance of domestic demand is prioritized over supply-side measures, reflecting a shift in policy focus [6] - The reform of the system includes accelerating the improvement of market-oriented allocation mechanisms for factors of production [6] - The emphasis on institutional openness has been significantly elevated, indicating a commitment to deepening reforms [7] - The focus on social welfare has been enhanced, with a more precise emphasis on ensuring basic living standards and equity [8] - The current economic pressures observed since the third quarter have been acknowledged, with expectations for new policies to be implemented in the fourth quarter [9] Overseas Strategy - The financial standards for listing are most flexible in the US, followed by Hong Kong, while A-shares have the strictest requirements [13] - The US market is the most inclusive regarding company structures, accepting various frameworks like WVR and VIE, while A-shares maintain a more cautious stance [14] - Listing efficiency is higher in the US and Hong Kong, with A-shares having a longer application process due to stringent regulatory scrutiny [15] Light Industry and Paper - Short-term supply of imported wood chips remains stable, but long-term supply of wood for pulping is limited due to the scarcity of forest resources [19] - Demand for broadleaf wood is expected to grow rapidly, with significant increases in production capacity projected from 2023 to 2035 [19] - Brazil is identified as a key player in eucalyptus production, with potential for yield improvements through modern cultivation techniques [19] - In China, Guangxi leads in eucalyptus production, but there are concerns about declining yields and the need for improved forestry practices [20] - The demand for imported eucalyptus has decreased, but short-term supply remains assured, particularly from Vietnam and Australia [21]