Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift towards high-quality development, focusing on effective demand and technological self-reliance, contrasting with the previous plan's broader economic growth goals [1][2][3] Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" acknowledges complex changes in the development environment, highlighting issues such as unilateralism and insufficient effective demand, indicating a stronger focus on total demand during this period [1][13][14] Development Goals - The plan sets seven specific goals, including significant achievements in high-quality development and a marked increase in technological self-reliance, with a clear target for improving the resident consumption rate [2][16][17] Industrial Development - Key changes in industrial development include a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries, with specific mention of sectors like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][18][19] Technological Innovation - The plan aims for decisive breakthroughs in critical core technologies through a new national system, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [4][19][21] Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy shifts to a dual approach of using new demand to drive new supply, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment, indicating a more proactive stance on domestic market dynamics [5][22][23] Institutional Reforms - The framework for institutional reforms is more focused, aiming to enhance the vitality of various business entities and improve macroeconomic governance, with specific measures for state-owned and private enterprises [6][24][25] Opening Up - The plan emphasizes the need for steady expansion of institutional openness, aligning with international high-standard trade rules and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [7][26][27] Rural Revitalization - The rural revitalization strategy remains consistent, with new measures to enhance rural infrastructure and public services, drawing on successful past initiatives [8][27] Regional Development - The plan highlights the importance of regional coordination and the role of key growth areas, promoting a more integrated approach to regional economic development [9][29][30] Green Development - The focus on green development is intensified, with a systematic approach to building a new energy system and achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals [9][31][32] Social Welfare - The plan prioritizes high-quality employment and income growth, with specific measures to enhance social security and address housing as a fundamental issue of public welfare [10][34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key changes and focuses in the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025), highlighting shifts in development goals, industry focus, and policy priorities. Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the complexity of the development environment, including unilateralism and hegemonism, while also recognizing favorable long-term trends. It highlights issues such as insufficient effective demand and pressures on employment and income growth, indicating a greater focus on total demand during this period [1][14][16]. Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets seven goals, with a clear emphasis on "significant achievements in high-quality development," which includes maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving total factor productivity, and increasing the resident consumption rate. The plan also introduces a new goal of significantly enhancing self-reliance in technology [2][17][18]. Industry Development - The plan includes a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries. It highlights the importance of traditional sectors like mining and manufacturing while also emphasizing new industries such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][19][20]. Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies through a new national system and extraordinary measures, particularly in areas like integrated circuits and advanced materials. It also proposes increased R&D tax deductions and greater government procurement of innovative products [4][20][21]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The plan shifts from a supply-driven approach to one that emphasizes demand, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment. It includes measures to enhance consumer spending and streamline government investment processes [5][22][23]. Systemic Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on enhancing the vitality of various business entities and improving the market-oriented allocation of resources. It emphasizes the need for stronger protection of property rights and the optimization of asset structures [7][24][25]. Opening Up - The plan advocates for a steady expansion of institutional openness, aiming to align with international high-standard trade rules and enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi, reflecting a proactive approach in the context of global economic changes [8][26]. Rural Revitalization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" continues to prioritize rural revitalization, incorporating lessons from previous initiatives to improve rural infrastructure and public services, thereby promoting agricultural modernization [9][27][28]. Regional Development - The plan emphasizes the role of key regions in driving economic growth and proposes measures to enhance public services based on residency registration, reflecting a focus on urbanization and regional advantages [10][29]. Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the establishment of a new energy system, focusing on increasing the share of renewable energy and implementing dual control over carbon emissions, indicating a commitment to sustainable development [11][30]. Social Welfare - The plan places a strong emphasis on high-quality employment and income distribution, introducing measures to enhance social security and housing supply, reflecting a shift in the perception of housing as a social issue [12][31][32].

【宏观 】 "十五五"新图景：科技领先、内需提振 二十届四中全会于2025年10月20至23日在北京召开，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。会议公报主要阐 述了"十五五"规划时期的发展环境判断、指导思想和原则、主要定性目标以及13个重点领域的定位和工作抓手，并讨论了当前经济形势。 总的来看，本次会议公报围绕十五五规划作出战略部署，对外部形势判断更严峻，但经济韧性强、信心足；重点领域政策上，科技目标由"追赶"转向"领 先"，产业体系注重"先进"制造和"优质"服务，政策重心向需求侧与民生倾斜，体制层面强调以深化改革和制度型开放畅通循环。 从重点领域的排序和相关表述来看，有以下几点增量信息： 1）外部形势判断更加严峻，但国内经济韧性仍强、信心很足，2035年远景目标要求有所提高。 2）科技创新强调"抢占科技发展制高点"，表明近年来我国科技进步推动目标由"赶超"到"领先"。 3）现代产业体系的构建强调先进制造业与优质服务业的双轮驱动。 4）关于建设强大国内市场、构建新发展格局，本次需求侧的重要性大于供给侧。 5）体制改革方面，较十九届五中全会新增"加快完善要素市场化配置体制机 ...

黄汝南 S0880523080001 邵睿思 S0880125070011 梁中华 S0880525040019 ·投资要点 · 本次会议对"十五五"时期作出战略部署，外部形势判断更严峻，经济韧性强、信心足，科技目标由"追赶"转向"领先"，产业体系注重"先 进"制造和"优质"服务，政策重心向需求侧与民生倾斜，强调以深化改革和制度型开放畅通循环，并预示四季度将落实增量政策以实现全年目 标。 二十届四中全会于2025年10月20至23日在北京召开，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 会议公报主要阐述了"十五五"规划时期的发展环境判断、指导思想和原则、主要定性目标以及13个重点领域的定位和工作抓手，并讨论了当前 经济形势。 总的来看，本次会议公报围绕十五五规划作出战略部署，对外部形势判断更严峻，但经济韧性强、信心足；重点领域政策上，科技目标由"追 赶"转向"领先"，产业体系注重"先进"制造和"优质"服务，政策重心向需求侧与民生倾斜，体制层面强调以深化改革和制度型开放畅通循环。 从重点领域的排序和相关表述来看，有以下几点增量信息： 5）体制改革方面，较十九届五中全会新增"加快 ...