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棉花期货2601合约
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鸡蛋劲升、红枣大跌
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 13:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]
农产品日报:上行驱动不足,板块依旧承压-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:25
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has changed from loose to tight according to USDA, but the realization of the production cut in some countries is uncertain. In China, the low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term, yet the new cotton's concentrated listing may bring pressure [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production forecast is revised down, and the high import volume in China suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. The sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may have a tail - end rise in the fourth quarter [4][6]. - Regarding pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,342 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. In July, Bangladesh imported about 139,000 tons of cotton, a 13.0% increase from June and a 1.2% increase from the same period last year [1]. Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's adjustment of cotton production needs verification, but the US cotton balance sheet may improve, supporting international cotton prices. Domestically, the low commercial inventory supports cotton prices, but the new cotton's concentrated listing may bring pressure [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure [2]. Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast was revised down by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons [2][3]. Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, restricting the decline. For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume suppresses prices [4]. Strategy - Be neutral. The sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,010 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-1.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,735 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: The pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: The consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8].