Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On November 4, the price of the soybean meal futures 2601 contract declined, mainly due to the obvious pattern of loose domestic supply - demand and the resonance effect of market expectation adjustment. The contract price will remain under pressure in the short - term, and short - selling opportunities should be grasped [3][6]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold shows signs of stabilization after more than a week of adjustment and low - buying for long positions is recommended. Iron ore is expected to decline in the short - term and should be regarded as oscillating bearishly. Glass will likely maintain an oscillating trend in the short - term. Paper pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level oscillations [9][14][16][20][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - The decline of the soybean meal futures 2601 contract price on November 4 was due to the loose domestic supply - demand pattern and market expectation adjustment. Supply - side pressure is the primary suppressing factor, with high expected soybean imports from September to December, high arrivals in November, and increasing oil mill operating rates leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The unimplemented soybean meal import agreement with Argentina has formed an expected supply increase. On the demand side, the planned reduction of the breeding sow inventory and restrictions on the slaughter scale of leading enterprises have led to weak demand. In the short - term, the contract price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic de - stocking progress and South American soybean sowing. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume has remained high recently, with light downstream transactions. It is expected that the oil mill operating rate will still be high in November, with a monthly soybean crushing volume of about 9 million tons and soybean meal output of about 7 million tons, higher than the average November consumption in the past three years. The oil mill soybean meal inventory is expected to rise above 1.2 million tons by the end of November, and short - selling opportunities should be grasped [3][4][5][6][23]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had an overall intraday pattern of rising and then falling, with a small decline at the end. The Fed's statement on a possible December interest - rate cut is still uncertain. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [9]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and low - buying for long positions is recommended [14]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron output may decline periodically. Technically, it has fallen near the previous high and should be regarded as oscillating bearishly. In the short - term, supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [16][17]. Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent driving factors mainly lie in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short - term [20]. Paper Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. Although downstream paper mills' price increases have boosted the pulp price, the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing side is cautious. It is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level oscillations [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall view for bean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating weakly". The core logics for these commodities are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, inventories, and cost support [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Bean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the US Treasury Secretary's statement that it is not certain to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, market sentiment has fluctuated. The expectation of tightened domestic long - term soybean supply has cooled, weakening the support for the futures price of the 2601 contract of domestic bean meal. Also, factors like Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure affect it [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market continues. Also, the weakening of the palm oil market industrial chain exerts obvious pressure. Macro - sentiment's influence on the oil market has significantly increased. Before the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will continue to be under pressure following the external market. Additionally, factors like biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventories, and substitution demand play a role [6][7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the core logic section like the above two, but listed in the summary table) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Core Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which is expected to tighten supply and potentially increase domestic soybean meal prices [1][4] - The USDA reported that the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, lower than both the intended planting area of 83.50 million acres and market expectations of 83.65 million acres, marking a five-year low [1] - The ending stocks for U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season are projected to be only 8.03 million tons, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 6.68%, indicating a low inventory situation compared to previous years [1] Group 2 - Weather conditions during the soybean planting period in May and June were favorable for planting but require sufficient rainfall in July and August for crop growth, increasing sensitivity to weather-related speculation [2] - As of July 6, the soybean good-to-excellent rating was 66%, matching the previous week but lower than the 68% from the same time last year, indicating a need for attention to rainfall in August [2] - The EPA's proposed blending rules for 2026-2027 significantly exceed market expectations, which is expected to increase demand for soybean oil and indirectly support soybean prices [3] Group 3 - Domestic soybean meal market is currently characterized by a "weak reality strong expectation" state, with a supply surplus in the third quarter suppressing prices [4] - A potential supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter could lead to increased domestic soybean meal prices [4] - The forecast for domestic soybean imports is high, with June imports reaching 10.56 million tons and expected to rise to 11 million tons in July, indicating a supply surplus in the near term [3]