鸡蛋期货2512合约
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农产品日报:需求渐有起色,猪价震荡运行-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Cautiously bearish [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, the current secondary fattening sentiment is still strong, but it doesn't change the total market supply and will increase future supply. The short - term pig price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged with large future出栏 pressure [2] - For the egg industry, the overall demand is weak. Although egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 12,185 yuan/ton yesterday, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.76 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.33 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 29, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 124.30, up 0.48 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 126.16, up 0.57 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.03 yuan/kg (unchanged), beef was 66.29 yuan/kg (down 0.5%), mutton was 62.35 yuan/kg (down 0.2%), eggs were 7.37 yuan/kg (down 0.3%), and white - striped chickens were 17.41 yuan/kg (down 1.6%) [1] Market Analysis - Secondary fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract was 3,165 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, up 66 yuan (+2.13%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.89 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin (unchanged) [3] - Inventory: On October 29, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days (unchanged) [4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. Egg sales have accelerated briefly, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the market is mainly focused on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish, as the number of laying hens in production remains high and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [6]
鸡蛋劲升、红枣大跌
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 13:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]