Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for rubber has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract for No. 20 rubber futures closing at 12,100.00 yuan/ton, down 2.18% [1] Market Data Summary - As of September 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 42,034 tons of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 403 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The Osaka Exchange indicated that as of September 20, 2025, the rubber (RSS) inventory in designated warehouses was 3,015 tons, down 202 tons from 3,217 tons as of September 10 [2] - LMC Automotive's latest report shows that the seasonally adjusted annualized sales of global light vehicles in August 2025 were slightly above 94 million units, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported a 5.3% increase in EU passenger car market sales in August 2025, totaling 677,786 units [2] Institutional Perspectives - Ningzheng Futures anticipates strong expectations for future production increases, while downstream tire manufacturers have completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to weak market trading. The overall situation indicates low inventory and weak demand for rubber [3] - Hualian Futures notes that expectations for increased volume during peak season and weak oil prices are pressuring the market, alongside increasing macro trade frictions. The impact of typhoons was less than expected, leading to a depletion of positive effects. The current price level has not significantly affected rubber tapping enthusiasm, and the premium of rubber glue over cup rubber is at a very low level, indicating no major supply issues [3] - From January to August this year, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by approximately 19%, but the growth rate slowed to 7.8% in August. Qingdao dry rubber inventory continues to show a slight decline, while the difficulty of inventory reduction remains high. The inventory of styrene-butadiene traders is recovering significantly, while factory inventory has decreased substantially [3] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate sector continues to drag down rubber demand, with July data remaining weak. However, the commencement of large-scale infrastructure projects is expected to benefit heavy truck demand in the long term, with heavy truck sales improving by approximately 35% year-on-year in August [3] - The operating rate of all-steel tires remained stable week-on-week, while the inventory is balanced and below levels of previous years. The operating rate of semi-steel tires rebounded after a decline, with inventory at high levels [3] - The current recommendation is to remain cautious and observe market conditions [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 据大阪交易所（OSE）官网7月20日数据，截至2025年7月20日，交易所指定仓库的橡胶（RSS）库存为 4604吨，较截至7月10日的4770吨减少166吨。 ...

5月30日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，20号胶期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 12040.00元/吨，大幅下挫3.25%。 【消息面汇总】 据大阪交易所（OSE）官网公布，截至2025年5月20日交易所指定仓库的橡胶（RSS）库存为5903吨， 较截至5月10日的5409吨增加494吨。 5月29日，上期20号胶期货仓单16733吨，环比上个交易日减少3528吨。 国内全钢胎1—5月平均开工负荷为57.81%，同比增加0.94个百分点，半钢胎1—5月平均开工负荷为 72.80%，同比增加0.45个百分点。 机构观点 国都期货：基本面来看，近期，泰国正在与中国商讨对橡胶进口执行零关税，若协议落地，将进一步降 低橡胶成本，促进进口增加。虽然全球天胶已经开割，但受低价影响，各国橡胶供给量较小，泰国橡胶 管理局宣布将开割季延后一个月，原定于5月份的割胶工作推迟至6月份进行，预计将减产20万吨。但今 年整体天气较好，我国胶水供应较为充裕，市场预期供求局面将逐渐恶化。轮胎企业开工小幅回升，但 较节前仍差。目前轮胎出口情况暂稳，汽车产销稳定，但受关税影响，下游信心较差。预计短期胶价将 逐步寻得底部支撑，观望 ...