Core Viewpoint - Asian rubber futures have experienced a comprehensive increase, influenced by multiple factors including heavy rainfall in Thailand, adjustments in tariffs by the US and Japan, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The increase in rubber prices is attributed to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, which is a major rubber-producing country [1] - Tariff adjustments between the US and Japan are impacting the rubber market dynamics, contributing to price fluctuations [1] - The anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is creating a favorable environment for commodity prices, including rubber [1]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of April 28, cup rubber is priced at 52.05 THB/kg (+0.85), latex at 58.00 THB/kg (+0.30), Yunnan rubber water acquisition price at 13,800 CNY/ton (+100), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (-100), full latex in Shanghai market at 14,550 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,720 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed at 14,300 CNY/ton (-100) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 74.20%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month and down 6.67 percentage points year-on-year. The overall sales have not improved significantly, leading to increased finished product inventory [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 67.44%, up 0.23 percentage points month-on-month and down 3.62 percentage points year-on-year. Some enterprises have slightly increased production to address shortages, resulting in a minor increase in capacity utilization [1] Inventory Turnover - As of April 17, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.40 days, up 1.08 days month-on-month and up 16.46 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 42.36 days, up 0.40 days month-on-month and up 1.21 days year-on-year [2] Export Data - According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in Q1 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with an export value of 40 billion CNY, up 7%. The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 2.15 million tons, up 5.9%, and the export value was 38.4 billion CNY, up 6.8% [2] Market Conditions - Supply-side conditions are favorable for seasonal tapping, leading to expectations of strong new rubber supply, which may suppress rubber prices. Demand remains weak, with no significant improvement in sales for semi-steel tire enterprises, leading to increased inventory pressure and a decline in capacity utilization [3] - The domestic market for all-steel tires is also weak, with no noticeable increase in end-user demand and sufficient inventory among distributors, resulting in slow inventory digestion [3] - Overall, with the release of raw materials and the impact of U.S. tariff policies, demand expectations are weak, which may limit the upward potential of rubber prices, with an expected trading range of 14,000 to 15,000 CNY [3]