Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that natural rubber prices are expected to rise initially and then fall in the fourth quarter, with supply being a critical factor in determining rubber prices [1] - Supply-side conditions will significantly influence the annual production volume, and there is a high possibility of preemptive trading in the market [1] - If supply disruptions continue, the expectation for weaker prices will enhance the elasticity of rubber prices [1] Group 2 - Demand is expected to maintain moderate growth, with third-quarter data showing overall performance better than anticipated [1] - There is little change expected in overseas demand for the fourth quarter, while domestic demand is steadily increasing, awaiting favorable policy drivers [1] - Macro news this year has significantly impacted rubber prices, amplifying volatility, necessitating ongoing attention to the recovery situation post-U.S. interest rate cuts and the stimulating effects of domestic policies on the fundamentals [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - The rubber price shows a volatile and bearish trend. Sino-US trade friction has escalated, which may suppress the rubber price. The supply-side pressure is not fully released in the short term, and the demand-side has limited guidance for the rubber price. Technically, the rubber price will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the stabilization opportunity [3][85][86] Group 2: Market Review - Analyzed the weekly trends of Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, synthetic rubber main contract, futures active contract RU - NR spread, synthetic rubber BR spot - futures basis, and futures RU - BR spread, with data sources including Boyiyun and WIND [11][14][17] Group 3: Rubber Fundamental Analysis Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In August 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 1% to 1.256 million tons. In 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and the consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [33][37][38] - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase from the same period in 2024 [42] - As of the week of October 3, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area was 454,400 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous period [50] Demand - Side - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase from the previous year [53] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase [56] - As of the week of October 9, the operating load of Shandong's all - steel tire enterprises was 43.96%, a 21.76% decrease from the previous week; the operating load of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 46.51%, a 27.07% decrease from the previous week [60] - In August 2025, the heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to August, the heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 14%, and the annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [70] - At the end of August 2025, China's all - steel tire total inventory was 10.19 million pieces, and the semi - steel tire total inventory was 18.53 million pieces, both showing a slight month - on - month decrease [73] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of October 11, the intended transaction price of SCRWF mainstream goods in the Shanghai market was 14,300 - 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 15,050 - 15,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [85] - Sino - US trade friction has escalated, which may suppress the rubber price. The supply - side pressure is not fully released in the short term, and the demand - side has limited guidance for the rubber price. Technically, the rubber price will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the stabilization opportunity [85][86]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for rubber has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract for No. 20 rubber futures closing at 12,100.00 yuan/ton, down 2.18% [1] Market Data Summary - As of September 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 42,034 tons of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 403 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The Osaka Exchange indicated that as of September 20, 2025, the rubber (RSS) inventory in designated warehouses was 3,015 tons, down 202 tons from 3,217 tons as of September 10 [2] - LMC Automotive's latest report shows that the seasonally adjusted annualized sales of global light vehicles in August 2025 were slightly above 94 million units, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported a 5.3% increase in EU passenger car market sales in August 2025, totaling 677,786 units [2] Institutional Perspectives - Ningzheng Futures anticipates strong expectations for future production increases, while downstream tire manufacturers have completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to weak market trading. The overall situation indicates low inventory and weak demand for rubber [3] - Hualian Futures notes that expectations for increased volume during peak season and weak oil prices are pressuring the market, alongside increasing macro trade frictions. The impact of typhoons was less than expected, leading to a depletion of positive effects. The current price level has not significantly affected rubber tapping enthusiasm, and the premium of rubber glue over cup rubber is at a very low level, indicating no major supply issues [3] - From January to August this year, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by approximately 19%, but the growth rate slowed to 7.8% in August. Qingdao dry rubber inventory continues to show a slight decline, while the difficulty of inventory reduction remains high. The inventory of styrene-butadiene traders is recovering significantly, while factory inventory has decreased substantially [3] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate sector continues to drag down rubber demand, with July data remaining weak. However, the commencement of large-scale infrastructure projects is expected to benefit heavy truck demand in the long term, with heavy truck sales improving by approximately 35% year-on-year in August [3] - The operating rate of all-steel tires remained stable week-on-week, while the inventory is balanced and below levels of previous years. The operating rate of semi-steel tires rebounded after a decline, with inventory at high levels [3] - The current recommendation is to remain cautious and observe market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Asian rubber futures have experienced a comprehensive increase, influenced by multiple factors including heavy rainfall in Thailand, adjustments in tariffs by the US and Japan, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The increase in rubber prices is attributed to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, which is a major rubber-producing country [1] - Tariff adjustments between the US and Japan are impacting the rubber market dynamics, contributing to price fluctuations [1] - The anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is creating a favorable environment for commodity prices, including rubber [1]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of April 28, cup rubber is priced at 52.05 THB/kg (+0.85), latex at 58.00 THB/kg (+0.30), Yunnan rubber water acquisition price at 13,800 CNY/ton (+100), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (-100), full latex in Shanghai market at 14,550 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,720 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed at 14,300 CNY/ton (-100) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 74.20%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month and down 6.67 percentage points year-on-year. The overall sales have not improved significantly, leading to increased finished product inventory [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 67.44%, up 0.23 percentage points month-on-month and down 3.62 percentage points year-on-year. Some enterprises have slightly increased production to address shortages, resulting in a minor increase in capacity utilization [1] Inventory Turnover - As of April 17, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.40 days, up 1.08 days month-on-month and up 16.46 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 42.36 days, up 0.40 days month-on-month and up 1.21 days year-on-year [2] Export Data - According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in Q1 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with an export value of 40 billion CNY, up 7%. The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 2.15 million tons, up 5.9%, and the export value was 38.4 billion CNY, up 6.8% [2] Market Conditions - Supply-side conditions are favorable for seasonal tapping, leading to expectations of strong new rubber supply, which may suppress rubber prices. Demand remains weak, with no significant improvement in sales for semi-steel tire enterprises, leading to increased inventory pressure and a decline in capacity utilization [3] - The domestic market for all-steel tires is also weak, with no noticeable increase in end-user demand and sufficient inventory among distributors, resulting in slow inventory digestion [3] - Overall, with the release of raw materials and the impact of U.S. tariff policies, demand expectations are weak, which may limit the upward potential of rubber prices, with an expected trading range of 14,000 to 15,000 CNY [3]