—— 从债务螺旋到全球金融震荡的深度解析 一、37 万亿美元的悬崖：数据背后的生死时速 当地时间 8 月 12 日，美国国债总额首次突破 37 万亿美元，较美国国会预算办公室 2020 年预测的时间 线整整提前了 5 年。这一数字相当于美国 2024 年 GDP 的 1.27 倍，若以 3.42 亿总人口计算，平均每个 美国人背负 10.8 万美元债务，折合人民币近 80 万元。更致命的是，美债正以每 5 个月增加 1 万亿美元 的速度膨胀，远超过去 25 年平均增速的两倍。 1. 利息吞噬财政的恶性循环 2024 财年，美国国债利息支出达 1.133 万亿美元，首次超过国防预算（8735 亿美元）和老年医疗保险 支出（8741 亿美元），占财政收入的 18.7%，远超 15% 的国际警戒线。桥水基金创始人瑞・达利欧警 告，这种 "发新债还旧息" 的模式已形成 "死亡螺旋"—— 更高的利息支出迫使美国财政部发行更多债 券，而投资者因风险激增要求更高收益率，进一步推高融资成本。 2. 债务上限的政治游戏 尽管美债规模已突破 36.1 万亿美元的法定上限，但两党仍在 "提高上限" 问题上僵持不下。财政部现金 储备 ...

Group 1: U.S. National Debt Crisis - The U.S. national debt reached an alarming $36.7 trillion by July 2025, equating to $110,000 per American, with a debt increase of $47 billion daily [1] - The U.S. Treasury faces immense repayment pressure, with $10 trillion in debt maturing this year against a federal tax revenue of only $4.9 trillion from the previous year [1] Group 2: Tariff Policies and Economic Impact - The Trump administration imposed a 15% tariff on goods from 150 countries, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, as part of a debt reduction strategy [1] - The tariffs led to significant losses for U.S. companies, with General Motors reporting a $1.1 billion loss in a single quarter due to a 125% tariff on U.S. goods from China [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon raised prices across various products, resulting in an average additional expenditure of $2,800 for American households, disproportionately affecting low-income families [3] Group 3: International Relations and Debt Restructuring - The Trump administration attempted to negotiate a "debt swap" with creditor nations like Japan and Germany, proposing to exchange U.S. debt for 100-year zero-coupon bonds [4] - Germany's firm stance against U.S. tariffs indicated escalating tensions, with plans to retaliate against iconic U.S. industries [4] Group 4: Alternative Debt Solutions - The U.S. Treasury considered issuing "Bitcoin-enhanced bonds," investing 10% of the principal in Bitcoin, betting on its volatility to cover interest payments [5] - The plan faced skepticism due to Bitcoin's price fluctuations, which could lead to significant losses for bondholders [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates from 4.75% to 1%, claiming it would save $400 billion in interest payments for the government [7] - The Fed's internal opposition highlighted concerns over inflation and potential economic stagnation, complicating the interest rate decision [7] Group 6: Broader Economic Consequences - The tariffs and economic policies led to a decline in consumer spending and increased unemployment, with companies like Stellantis planning to lay off 12,000 workers [8] - The Nasdaq index experienced a significant drop of 2.64%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 4.4%, indicating rising borrowing costs [8]