证券研究报告·公司深度研究·其他电源设备Ⅱ 东方电气（600875） 东方巨擎，筑能源之基 2026 年 02 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 60,677 | 69,695 | 80,756 | 90,713 | 99,988 | | 同比（%） | 9.60 | 14.86 | 15.87 | 12.33 | 10.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,550 | 2,922 | 3,501 | 4,524 | 5,440 | | 同比（%） | 24.23 | (17.70) | 19.80 | 29.23 | 20.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.03 | 0.84 | 1.01 | 1.31 | 1.57 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 32.96 | 40.05 | 33.43 | 25.87 | 21.51 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

2025年，我国实施了新一轮机械、汽车行业稳增长工作方案，通过供需两端协同发力， 深化科技创新和产业创新深度融合，增强优质装备供给能力，装备工业对工业经济支撑作用 更加突出。 2025年，我国装备制造业基础领域创新成果持续涌现：4000吨级轮式起重机在山地大型 风电机组吊装工程中投入应用，世界最大直径24米竖井掘进机成功下线。一系列关键核心技 术突破，让装备制造业"压舱石"作用更加凸显。2025年，我国规模以上装备制造业增加值占 全部规模以上工业比重为36.8%，较2024年提高2.2个百分点。 同时，新兴产业正加快培育壮大。截至目前，我国已累计培育汽车行业国家级专精特 新"小巨人"企业数百家；人形机器人整机生产企业已超140家。 2025年，我国汽车、电子行业增加值同比增长分别为11.5%、10.6%，位居工业所有大 类行业的前两位；风力发电机组、水轮发电机组等绿色产品产量显著增长。 下一步，我国将推动人工智能应用进一步深入产品研发、质量检测、客户服务等各个环 节，为产业高质量发展奠定坚实基础。 来源： 央视新闻（记者：王世玉、罗宏进） 此外，智能制造水平显著提升。截至2025年底，装备制造业已累计建成卓越 ...

2025年，我国实施了新一轮机械、汽车行业稳增长工作方案，通过供需两端协同发力，深化科技创新和 产业创新深度融合，增强优质装备供给能力，装备工业对工业经济支撑作用更加突出。 同时，新兴产业正加快培育壮大。截至目前，我国已累计培育汽车行业国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业数 百家；人形机器人整机生产企业已超140家。 此外，智能制造水平显著提升。截至2025年底，装备制造业已累计建成卓越级智能工厂197家，占全国 总量的比重为39%。在首批公布的15家领航级智能工厂中，有6家来自装备制造业，占比40%。 下一步，我国将推动人工智能应用进一步深入产品研发、质量检测、客户服务等各个环节，为产业高质 量发展奠定坚实基础。 2025年，我国装备制造业基础领域创新成果持续涌现：4000吨级轮式起重机在山地大型风电机组吊装工 程中投入应用，世界最大直径24米竖井掘进机成功下线。一系列关键核心技术突破，让装备制造业"压 舱石"作用更加凸显。2025年，我国规模以上装备制造业增加值占全部规模以上工业比重为36.8%，较 2024年提高2.2个百分点。 记者：王世玉、罗宏进 2025年，我国汽车、电子行业增加值同比增长分别为11.5% ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：2025年，我国实施了新一轮机械、汽车行业稳增长工作方案，通过供需两端 协同发力，深化科技创新和产业创新深度融合，增强优质装备供给能力，装备工业对工业经济支撑作用 更加突出。 2025年，我国装备制造业基础领域创新成果持续涌现：4000吨级轮式起重机在山地大型风电机组吊装工 程中投入应用，世界最大直径24米竖井掘进机成功下线。一系列关键核心技术突破，让装备制造业"压 舱石"作用更加凸显。2025年，我国规模以上装备制造业增加值占全部规模以上工业比重为36.8%，较 2024年提高2.2个百分点。 同时，新兴产业正加快培育壮大。截至目前，我国已累计培育汽车行业国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业数 百家；人形机器人整机生产企业已超140家。 2025年，我国汽车、电子行业增加值同比增长分别为11.5%、10.6%，位居工业所有大类行业的前两 位；风力发电机组、水轮发电机组等绿色产品产量显著增长。 此外，智能制造水平显著提升。截至2025年底，装备制造业已累计建成卓越级智能工厂197家，占全国 总量的比重为39%。在首批公布的15家领航级智能工厂中，有6家来自装备制造业，占比40%。 下一步，我国 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's industrial economy demonstrates strong resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in industrial added value for large-scale enterprises, an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - In December, the industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, showing a positive momentum in industrial production recovery at the end of the year [1] - The manufacturing sector continues to play a key supporting role, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in added value, and 36 out of 41 major industrial categories achieved growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 87.8% [1] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing industry shows significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% in added value, accounting for 36.8% of the total industrial output, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The automotive industry grew by 11.5%, and the electronics industry by 10.6%, contributing 12.4% and 18.1% respectively to the overall industrial growth [2] - Traditional industries are advancing green transformation, with the petroleum processing industry growing by 6.7%, and the biomass fuel processing sector growing by 16.8% [2] Group 3 - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead industrial high-quality development, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% in added value, contributing 26.1% to the overall industrial growth [3] - Key sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing and aircraft manufacturing saw growth rates of 26.7% and 24.8% respectively [3] - The digital product manufacturing sector also shows strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in added value, contributing 20.3% to overall industrial growth [3] Group 4 - From January to November 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises continued to grow, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 7.7%, driving an overall profit growth of 2.8 percentage points for all large-scale industrial enterprises [4] - The industrial economy in China is achieving structural optimization and quality improvement under pressure, with new growth drivers accelerating formation [4] - The need for continued adherence to new development concepts and the strengthening of the real economy is emphasized for high-quality industrial development [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's industrial value-added is expected to grow by 5.9% in 2025, with a faster growth rate compared to the previous year, and December's growth rate is 5.2%, accelerating by 0.4% from November [1] - Traditional manufacturing industries are showing significant transformation, with the petroleum processing industry expected to grow by 6.7% in 2025, and the biomass fuel processing sector experiencing a remarkable growth of 16.8%, contributing 1.7 percentage points more to the petroleum processing industry's growth compared to last year [1] - The chemical fiber industry is projected to grow by 8.2%, with the bio-based materials manufacturing sector growing by 27.9%, contributing 23.1% to the chemical fiber industry's growth, an increase of 16.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The production of green low-carbon products is increasing rapidly, with the output of new energy vehicles expected to grow by 25.1% in 2025, driving significant increases in the production of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles and charging piles by 41.7% and 11.0% respectively [1] - Wind turbine and hydroelectric generator production are expected to grow by 48.9% and 29.3% respectively, supported by the development of green energy [1] - The output of lithium carbonate, carbon fiber, and bio-based chemical fibers is projected to increase by 57.1%, 47.7%, and 19.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales are expected to reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, achieving a historical high and maintaining the world's largest market for 17 consecutive years [2] - New energy vehicles are projected to exceed 16 million units in production and sales, with domestic new car sales accounting for over 50%, becoming the dominant force in China's automotive market [2] - The automotive export market shows strong resilience, with over 7 million vehicles exported, and the export scale reaching new heights, including 2.615 million new energy vehicles exported, which is a 100% year-on-year increase [2]

Core Insights - China's electricity development reflects the modernization and industrial upgrading of the nation, evolving from a mere 1.85 million kilowatts of installed capacity at the founding of the People's Republic of China to a projected 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, making it the largest in the world [2][31]. Historical Development - The first electric light in China was lit in 1879 in Shanghai, but it was largely symbolic and did not impact the general populace [4]. - At the founding of New China, the annual electricity generation was 4.3 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to the consumption of a medium-sized city today [5]. - Prior to the reform and opening-up in 1978, China's electricity construction faced multiple challenges, including funding shortages and outdated technology, leading to frequent power outages and limited industrial production [7]. Reform and Growth - Post-1978 reforms marked a significant shift, with electricity being prioritized for economic development, leading to rapid expansion in thermal power and rural electrification [8]. - By 1987, installed capacity surpassed 100 million kilowatts, alleviating power shortages [8]. - The 1990s saw systematic and large-scale electricity construction, with major projects like the Three Gorges Dam laying the groundwork for future energy stability [10]. Structural Changes - The 2002 electricity system reform separated generation and grid operations, introducing market competition and significantly improving operational efficiency [12]. - Installed capacity grew from approximately 300 million kilowatts in 2000 to over 1 billion kilowatts in 2010, and is expected to reach 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024 [12]. New Energy Revolution - China is transitioning from coal dependency to a diversified energy structure, with non-fossil energy sources projected to account for 58.2% of total installed capacity by the end of 2024, aiming for around 60% by 2025 [21]. - Major hydropower projects like the Three Gorges and Baihetan have significantly reduced coal consumption and carbon emissions [15]. - Wind and solar power have evolved from supplementary sources to primary energy sources, with costs dropping over 80% compared to a decade ago [19]. Technological Advancements - China has developed strong cross-regional transmission capabilities through self-developed ultra-high voltage technology, enabling efficient long-distance power transmission with low line loss [22]. - The national unified electricity dispatch system enhances grid resilience and stability, effectively managing extreme weather and equipment failures [24]. Economic Impact - Reliable and low-cost electricity supports the growth of energy-intensive industries, providing a competitive edge for sectors like manufacturing and AI data centers [26][27]. - Stable electricity pricing reduces uncertainty for businesses, fostering expansion and innovation [27]. Global Influence - China's electricity industry is increasingly exporting technology and capabilities globally, with core products like solar panels and wind turbines being widely adopted in international projects [29]. - This export includes comprehensive capabilities in planning, design, construction, and management, reshaping the global energy market [29].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between State Power Investment Corporation, Sichuan Tieneng Power Development Co., and CATL marks a significant entry of private capital into the hydropower sector, indicating a shift in the energy landscape towards more diverse investment sources [1][11]. Group 1: Project Overview - The newly established company, Guoneng Dadu River (Danba) Hydropower Development Co., will focus on the investment, construction, and operation of the Danba Hydropower Station, which has a total installed capacity of 1.15 million kilowatts and a total dynamic investment of 15.273 billion yuan [1]. - The Danba Hydropower Station is the ninth of 28 hydropower stations on the Dadu River, equipped with four 275,000-kilowatt mixed-flow turbine generator sets and one 50,000-kilowatt ecological generator set [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - CATL's investment of 458 million yuan represents a financial opportunity, with the project's internal rate of return on capital estimated at 5.95% [2]. - The hydropower sector is characterized by low operational costs after initial high investments, with a typical large hydropower station requiring only a small workforce for maintenance [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average annual power generation of the Danba Hydropower Station is projected to be 4.718 billion kilowatt-hours, generating approximately 1.403 billion yuan in annual revenue at a tax-inclusive electricity price of 0.2974 yuan per kilowatt-hour [5]. - The average cost of hydropower is significantly lower than that of other energy sources, with a gross profit margin of 66.6% for companies like Yangtze Power, indicating the high profitability potential of hydropower projects [5]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Trends - Small hydropower stations face several challenges, including management difficulties due to their scattered nature, aging equipment, and low automation levels [7]. - The number of small hydropower stations in China has decreased from over 47,000 in 2017 to about 41,000 by the end of 2022 due to regulatory clean-up efforts [9]. - The upcoming IEC 61116:2025 standard for small hydropower stations will raise industry standards, potentially leading to the exit of non-compliant stations and providing a competitive edge to technically advanced companies [10]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The partnership between State Power Investment Corporation and CATL reflects a broader trend of integrating hydropower with energy storage solutions, enhancing grid stability and efficiency [10]. - This collaboration may serve as a benchmark for larger energy and solar companies, highlighting the growing role of private capital in the energy transition [11].

Consumption - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption continued to decline, with automotive consumption down 8.3% and home appliances down 19.4% year-on-year[12] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a gradual release of service consumption potential[14] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[23] - Real estate development investment fell by 31.4% year-on-year in November, a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous month's 23.2%[23] - Equipment purchase investment showed a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding from a previous decline of 1.1%[32] - Exports to the EU saw a significant recovery with a growth rate of 14.8%, while exports to the US decreased by 28.6%[32] - Imports rose slightly by 1.9% year-on-year, with notable increases in the import of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment[34]

Core Viewpoint - The successful installation of the core components for the first hydropower generator unit at the Qingyukou Reservoir project marks a significant milestone in the construction of this major water conservancy project in Sichuan Province [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Qingyukou Reservoir project, undertaken by China Railway 11th Bureau, involves the installation of three hydropower generator units, each with a capacity of 6.67 megawatts, leading to a total installed capacity of 20 megawatts [1] - The project serves multiple functions, including flood control, water supply, and power generation [1] - The Qingyukou Reservoir is part of the national plan, being one of the 150 major water conservancy projects and one of the 102 major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]