宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 11 月 24 日 橡胶甲醇原油 多空强弱出现 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心略微下跌至 15320 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微下跌 0.33%至 15320 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛至 75 元/吨。随着宏观驱动减弱以后，国内胶市重回由供需基本面所主导的 行情中。 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡企稳， 大幅反弹的走势，期价最高上涨至 2077 元/吨一线，最 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Tuesday. Driven by macro - sentiment and industrial factors, it is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6]. - The methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly falling on Tuesday. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, it is expected to continue to operate weakly in the future [6]. - The crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. After the previous rebound of oil prices, differences between bulls and bears emerged. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the future [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%, and the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18%. In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 53.3%, a rebound of 1 percentage point month - on - month. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9435 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 73,600 tons. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.97%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.02%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The acetic acid operating rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2%. The MTBE operating rate was 56.50%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.42%. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week rebound of 111 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 22 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 24, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2698 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 308,100 tons. As of the week of October 23, the inland methanol inventory was 360,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 76,500 tons [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 418, with no week - on - week change and a decrease of 64 from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 129,000 barrels per day. As of the week of October 17, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 961,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.231 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 770,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 408.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 819,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points. As of September 23, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% from the August average. As of October 21, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 51,791 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 58,520 contracts and a decrease of 164,564 contracts or 76.06% from the September average [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,350 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 600 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,254 yuan/ton | - 14 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | +14 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 438.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 465.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.3 yuan/barrel | - 27.1 yuan/barrel | +3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded - area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][22][25] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]