Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce, leading to significant volatility in the market and raising concerns about speculative trading in options [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Shanghai gold market has experienced a "doomsday wheel" effect, with the Shanghai Gold 2505 options contract seeing a dramatic increase in prices, including a 9,800% surge in a single day for a call option with a strike price of 888 yuan per gram [1][2]. - The implied volatility of gold options has surged to 37%, which is a 62% premium over historical averages, indicating heightened market speculation [2]. Regulatory Response - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice urging members to enhance risk management and maintain market stability amid the recent price fluctuations [3]. Retail Market Impact - The rise in gold prices has led to adjustments in minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products by several banks, including the Bank of China [3]. - Retail prices for gold jewelry have also increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook seeing prices exceed 1,080 yuan per gram [3]. Investment Sentiment - Despite the strong performance of gold, market participants have become accustomed to the rising prices, with many expressing optimism about future trends [3]. - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by over 30%, driven by ongoing global economic and political uncertainties [4].

22日，沪金2505期权合约上演了一场"末日轮"行情，行权价888元/克的认购合约单日最高暴涨9800%， 收盘涨幅达到4200%。此外，多张深度虚值认购合约价格暴涨。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，要警 惕"末日轮"狂欢背后的炒作之风。以沪金2505购888合约为例，截至4月22日下午收盘，期货价格距行权 价尚有超过50元的鸿沟。历史数据显示，"末日轮"胜率不足5%，超过97%的虚值期权最终价值归零。 当前黄金期权隐含波动率飙升至37%，较历史均值溢价62%。参照2024年科创50期权暴跌案例，一旦地 缘风险缓和，波动率单日回落20%即可引发价格腰斩。 ...