2025 年 12 月 22 日 范丽军 期货投资咨询证号：Z0018336 白银期权 01 合约平值期权隐波在 38%附近，02 合约隐波在 46%附近。一方面， 前期买入看涨期权出现大量的止盈平仓，压低隐波；另一方面， 01 合约 12 月 25 日 到期，临近到期期权价值每日流逝加快，卖期权仓位主动增加降低隐波。基于 01、 02 合约期权隐波近月低远月高的情况和近期贵金属的偏强行情，可以考虑买入白银期 权 01 合约的虚值看涨期权，交易 "末日轮行情"。如果 25 日，白银未大涨则损失全部 权利金；如果发生大涨则可能获得几倍收益。 近期欧洲白银租赁利率只有 2%左右，但 1 个月至 3 个月的租赁利率上升至 7%附 近。全球有 1000 亿美元被动管理资金跟踪彭博商品指数（BCOM）、有约 350 亿美 元跟踪标普高盛商品指数（S&P GSCI），二者将于 1 月 8 日降低金银权重。根据小 摩测算，大概在 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日之间，全球约有 50 亿美元的黄金卖盘和近 40 亿美元的白银卖盘。这两点与白银期权隐波近低远高也形成了呼应。指数调整期间继 续关注白银看涨期权建仓机会。 - 1 ...

22日，沪金2505期权合约上演了一场"末日轮"行情，行权价888元/克的认购合约单日最高暴涨9800%， 收盘涨幅达到4200%。此外，多张深度虚值认购合约价格暴涨。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，要警 惕"末日轮"狂欢背后的炒作之风。以沪金2505购888合约为例，截至4月22日下午收盘，期货价格距行权 价尚有超过50元的鸿沟。历史数据显示，"末日轮"胜率不足5%，超过97%的虚值期权最终价值归零。 当前黄金期权隐含波动率飙升至37%，较历史均值溢价62%。参照2024年科创50期权暴跌案例，一旦地 缘风险缓和，波动率单日回落20%即可引发价格腰斩。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown strong performance, recently breaking through the $3400 and $3500 thresholds, with COMEX gold futures reaching $3476.1 per ounce and spot gold hitting a historical high of $3500.120 per ounce [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of April 22, COMEX gold futures reported a price of $3476.1 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.48% and a peak of $3509.9 per ounce [1]. - Spot gold in London was priced at $3457.960 per ounce, rising 1.00% during the day and reaching a high of $3500.120 per ounce [1]. - The "doomsday wheel" phenomenon in the options market has emerged, characterized by significant price fluctuations leading to extraordinary returns on options contracts [1]. Group 2: Options Market Activity - Several deep out-of-the-money call options for Shanghai gold surged dramatically, with the maximum increase for the Shanghai gold 2505 call option 888 reaching 9800%, closing up 4200% [1]. - Other notable increases included the Shanghai gold 2505 call option 896, which rose 7000% to close up 2700%, and the 2505 call option 904, which increased 5500% to close up 2400% [1]. Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - On April 22, gold-related stocks experienced significant gains, with companies such as Baoding Technology (002552.SZ) and Dongjiang Environmental (002672.SZ) hitting the daily limit, while Mingpai Jewelry (603179.SH) and Sichuan Gold (001337.SZ) rose over 5% [3][4]. - The stock prices and percentage increases for notable gold-related companies included Baoding Technology at 15.02 yuan (+10.04%), Dongjiang Environmental at 4.28 yuan (+10.03%), and Sichuan Gold at 28.56 yuan (+6.09%) [4]. Group 4: Futures Market Highlights - The Shanghai gold futures market saw the main contract 2506 reach a maximum price of 836.3 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 4.13%, making it the most watched futures product of the day [5][6]. - The 2506 contract attracted a capital inflow of 2.775 billion yuan on the same day [5].