Core Insights - Global semiconductor capital expenditure (CapEx) is projected to decrease by 7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025 but increase by 27% year-on-year, driven by investments in advanced logic, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and advanced packaging technologies supporting AI applications [1] - Memory-related capital expenditure has surged by 57% year-on-year, while non-memory spending has grown by 15% during the same period [1] - Wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a further 12% increase anticipated in Q2, fueled by significant investments in advanced logic and memory production to meet growing AI demands [1] - Test equipment spending has increased by 56% year-on-year in Q1, with a forecasted growth of 53% in Q2, driven by demand for AI and HBM chips [1] - Global wafer fab capacity is expected to exceed 42.5 million 300mm equivalent wafers per quarter in Q1 2025, reflecting a 2% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year growth [1] China Wafer Capacity Growth - China remains the leading region for wafer capacity expansion, although growth momentum is expected to slow in the coming quarters [2] - Japan and Taiwan are experiencing the fastest quarterly capacity growth, driven by significant investments in power semiconductors and the expansion of advanced foundries [2] Major Chip Manufacturers Increasing CapEx - TSMC has reaffirmed its annual capital expenditure target for 2025 at $38 billion to $42 billion, which aligns with market expectations and represents a historical high, with a midpoint of $40 billion [3] - TSMC's Q1 2025 capital expenditure was $10.06 billion, slightly lower than the previous quarter's $11.23 billion [3] - Approximately 70% of TSMC's 2025 capital expenditure will be allocated to advanced process technologies, with 10% to 20% for special technologies, and another 10% to 20% for advanced packaging, testing, and photomask production [3] - SMIC plans to invest $7 billion in capital expenditure in 2025, reflecting domestic demand growth and efforts to advance chip manufacturing technology following U.S. sanctions against TSMC supplying chips to Huawei [3]