事情的起因，是特朗普政府和中国签的一年期出口管制暂停协议。这协议一出来，美国国会直接炸了锅，本周四专门开听证会，主题就是"堵 芯片漏洞"，议员们唾沫横飞喊着要加码管制，生怕中国趁机追上。 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊芯片圈的年度大瓜！ 美国对华芯片管制喊了这么久，本以为是"天罗地网"，结果越堵越慌、漏洞百出，反而被中国反手走出一条硬核破局路。 自相矛盾藏不住短板 结果呢？前脚刚喊完"收紧"，后脚美国商务部就给大家整了个活——批准向沙特和阿联酋卖英伟达Blackwell芯片！ 两家中东公司，各能拿到相当于3.5万颗GB300服务器的货，这操作直接给人看懵了。 咱先说说这暂停协议到底是啥买卖。根据美国财政部长贝森特说的，美国给中国两个好处：中国商品关税降10个百分点，9月29号该生效的 50%附属公司规则，暂停一年。 作为交换，中国放松稀土出口限制，还让恩智浦的子公司Nexperia恢复给美国卖芯片。 加州有个议员直接骂街了，说这暂停规则一年，等于给中国留足时间找路子绕开管制，纯纯给对手送buff啊！咱就是说，这话没毛病，毕竟这 规则本来是要管黑名单实体持股50%以上的关联公司，现在一暂停，可不就给了可乘之机。 ...

在工业与商用领域，亿道信息通过将加固终端与AI算法深度融合，实现了多场景技术突破。仓储场景 中的手持终端可实现货物信息的毫秒级识别与离线处理，配合本地部署的AIGC软件助手，大幅提升分 拣效率。在智能制造领域，公司的工业平板通过边缘计算节点实现设备数据的实时分析，助力企业打造 智能化产线。此外，公司AI技术应用已延伸至智慧教育、智能办公、智慧零售等多个领域，形成了从 端侧硬件到边缘计算、从算法框架到行业解决方案的全场景覆盖能力。 亿道信息表示，亿封智芯先进封装项目的落地，是公司AI生态建设的重要战略布局。通过三方联合发 力，公司将进一步整合资源、实现优势互补，推动封装技术与AI终端、应用场景的深度融合，持续完 善"端-边-云"协同生态。 资料显示，亿道信息是一家以研发设计为核心的智能终端产品及解决方案提供商，公司产品矩阵覆盖消 费级电脑与平板、加固智能行业终端、XR/AI穿戴及AIoT产品等，广泛用于生活娱乐、智能办公、智慧 教育、智能制造、智慧零售等多元场景。2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入同比增长24.23%，经营 质量稳步提升。 依托深厚技术积累，亿道信息成功构建了覆盖端侧与边缘侧的算力产品矩阵，从 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 集成电路ETF（159546）跟踪的是集成电路指数（932087），该指数从市场中选取涉及半导体设计、晶 圆制造、封装测试以及相关材料设备等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以全面反映中国集成电路产 业链核心企业的整体表现。该指数具有突出的技术引领性和产业成长性特征，能够有效表征集成电路行 业的发展态势。 国泰海通指出，半导体产业链正加速向封装技术领域倾斜，先进封装与键合技术成为突破"卡脖子"环节 的关键突破口，被视为产业下一阶段增长引擎。混合键合、无助焊剂键合等技术成熟推动3D封装、异 构集成向高密度、高可靠性方向突破，纳米银烧结等新型材料加速落地解决传统键合材料热膨胀系数匹 配难题。5G、AI、汽车电子等领域对芯片散热效率、信号传输速度提出更高要求，在摩尔定律趋缓背 景下，先进封装成为提升算力性价比的重要路径。国内企业正从中低端市场切入HBM、功率半导体等 高端赛道，但关键设备与材料仍依赖ASM Pacific等国际厂商。预计到2027年全球先进封装市场规模将 达650亿美元，混合键合技术增速最快，2026年先进封装有望超越传统封装成为主流技术。 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of AI chips is driving the demand for high-performance computing (HPC) components such as GPUs, AI ASICs, and HBM, with advanced packaging technologies like 2.5D/3D becoming crucial in the semiconductor industry [1][3] - Intel's advanced packaging technology EMIB is being evaluated by major tech companies like Apple and Qualcomm, indicating a potential shift in the competitive landscape as these companies consider alternatives to TSMC [1][11] - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to exceed $12 billion by Q2 2025 and reach approximately $45 billion by 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% to around $80 billion by 2030 [3] Advanced Packaging Landscape - TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have established a competitive "three-horse race" in the advanced packaging sector, each playing different roles in the supply chain [3][20] - TSMC's CoWoS technology has become the de facto standard for high-bandwidth packaging, but it faces capacity constraints primarily due to Nvidia's significant demand [7][8] - Intel's EMIB technology offers flexibility and cost advantages, making it suitable for custom ASICs and AI inference chips, positioning it as a viable alternative to TSMC's offerings [11][15] Market Dynamics - The demand for advanced packaging is driven by the strong growth in AI and HPC sectors, with TSMC planning to expand its CoWoS capacity by over 20% by the end of 2026 [8][24] - Samsung's advanced packaging technologies, I-Cube and X-Cube, are designed to leverage its HBM supply chain, aiming to enhance its influence in the AI chip market [20][23] - The competition in AI chip manufacturing is no longer limited to packaging technologies but encompasses computational architecture, supply chain security, capital expenditure, and ecosystem integration [24]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's EMIB advanced packaging technology is gaining attention from Apple and Qualcomm, being considered a viable alternative to TSMC's products [1] Group 1: Company Interest - Apple has recently posted job openings for DRAM packaging engineers, specifically seeking experience in advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, EMIB, SoIC, and PoP [1] - Qualcomm is also looking for a product management director for its data center business, with a requirement for familiarity with Intel's EMIB technology [1] Group 2: Technology and Market Position - Intel's CEO and executives have emphasized that their Foveros and EMIB technologies have attracted interest from multiple customers and are capable of large-scale production [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intel is lagging in chip business but has competitive options in advanced packaging technology, which is becoming essential in the supply chain as demand for powerful computing solutions grows rapidly [2][7]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Technology - Advanced packaging solutions have become indispensable in the supply chain, with companies like AMD and NVIDIA integrating multiple chips into single packages to enhance chip density and platform performance [2]. - Intel's EMIB (Embedded Multi-Die Interconnect Bridge) technology connects multiple chipsets within a single package without the need for large intermediary layers, making it a viable alternative to TSMC's CoWoS [4]. - Intel also offers Foveros Direct 3D packaging technology, which utilizes TSV (Through-Silicon Via) for stacking on substrates, recognized as one of the industry's most esteemed solutions [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Competition - Companies like Qualcomm and Apple are actively seeking talent skilled in Intel's EMIB technology, indicating a strong demand for advanced packaging expertise in the industry [2]. - Intel's advanced packaging solutions are seen as a strategic move for companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, especially as TSMC faces capacity bottlenecks due to high order volumes from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO has praised Intel's Foveros technology, suggesting a promising market outlook for Intel's advanced packaging solutions, despite recruitment listings not guaranteeing adoption [9].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry chain is experiencing significant activity in the capital market, with multiple companies in various segments, including chip design, wafer processing, and packaging and testing, moving towards IPOs. Jiangsu Xinde Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating its intent to go public [1]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Xinde Semiconductor, established in September 2020 and headquartered in Nanjing, specializes in semiconductor packaging and testing [2][3]. - The company is controlled by a group of major shareholders, holding a combined voting power of 24.95% prior to the IPO [3]. - The management team includes experienced professionals with over 20 years in the semiconductor industry [3]. Financial Performance - Xinde Semiconductor has reported losses totaling 1.315 billion RMB over the past three and a half years, with significant cash flow pressures [8]. - Revenue figures for the years 2022 to 2025 show a growth trend, with revenues of 269 million RMB in 2022, 509 million RMB in 2023, and projected 827 million RMB in 2024 [9][10]. - The company has faced negative gross margins, with gross profit margins of -79.8% in 2022 and improving to -16.3% in the first half of 2025 [9]. Product and Service Offering - Xinde Semiconductor provides a diverse range of packaging technologies, including 2.5D/3D integration, flip chip, and wire bonding, catering to various semiconductor product needs [4][5]. - The product mix includes QFN, BGA, LGA, WLP, and 2.5D/3D products, with QFN and BGA contributing significantly to revenue [11]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of 0.6% in the Chinese semiconductor packaging and testing market, ranking seventh among general-purpose OSAT companies [16][29]. - The global semiconductor packaging and testing market is projected to reach 649.4 billion RMB in 2024, with the Chinese market expected to be 248.1 billion RMB [21][27]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry is driven by the demand for high integration and low-power chips, particularly in communications, consumer electronics, and AI sectors [27]. - Advanced packaging technologies are becoming crucial for enhancing chip performance and efficiency, with the market for advanced packaging expected to grow significantly [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Xinde Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for expanding production capacity and enhancing advanced packaging technology research [1][2]. Company Overview - Xinde Semiconductor specializes in semiconductor packaging technology solutions, offering customized packaging products and testing services, with a product portfolio that includes QFN, BGA, LGA, WLP, and 2.5D/3D products [2]. - The company has completed over 2 billion RMB in financing over the past five years, attracting notable investors such as Xiaomi and OPPO [2]. Financial Performance - The company has reported negative gross and net profit margins for the past three years, with a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 100% [2][7]. - In terms of operating performance, Xinde Semiconductor has experienced continuous losses from 2022 to 2025, with net losses of approximately 3.60 billion RMB, 3.59 billion RMB, 3.77 billion RMB, and 2.19 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The gross margins for the years 2022 to 2025 are reported as -79.82%, -38.43%, -20.13%, and -16.3% [5][6]. Market Potential - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with global and Chinese market sizes expected to reach 43,710 billion RMB and 16,022 billion RMB in 2024, respectively, and further increase to 65,480 billion RMB and 28,133 billion RMB by 2029 [3]. Use of IPO Proceeds - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used for building a production base, establishing new production lines, procuring production-related equipment, enhancing advanced packaging technology research, and improving the company's commercialization capabilities [1][2]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges related to high production costs, including depreciation of production equipment and financing expenses, which contribute to its ongoing losses [4][5]. - The high asset-to-debt ratio reflects the capital-intensive nature of the advanced packaging sector, necessitating continuous investment in production capacity and technology upgrades [7]. Future Outlook - Xinde Semiconductor plans to attract a broader range of industry clients by continuously launching advanced packaging solutions and deepening cooperation with existing clients [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue from mid-to-high-end products. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 860 million yuan, up 55.74% year-on-year, driven by revenue growth and improved management and cost control [4][8] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and customer base, particularly focusing on AI, high-performance computing products, and automotive smart driving chips. The overall packaging and testing market is expected to improve due to a new technological upcycle and a gradual recovery in application markets [4] - The company plans to invest a total of 6 billion yuan in facilities, production equipment, IT, and R&D from 2025, with specific allocations for new factory construction and upgrades to meet the growing demand for large-size multi-chip servers and AI PCs [5][10] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.342 billion yuan, 31.563 billion yuan, and 36.459 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit is expected to be 1.347 billion yuan, 1.650 billion yuan, and 2.067 billion yuan for the same years [8][10] - The report indicates a significant growth rate in net profit, with expected increases of 299.9% in 2025, 98.9% in 2026, and 25.3% in 2027 [10][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 1.36 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance reversal is basically confirmed, with over 100 million yuan in orders for glass substrates [1] - The company has seen significant improvements in the shipment of nano-microcrystalline glass, driven by the demand for advanced packaging technology [8] - The market for glass substrates is expected to reach a scale of 460 million USD by 2030, with optimistic forecasts suggesting widespread adoption starting in 2027-2028 [8] - The company has received multiple customized orders in the high-end glass sector, providing stable support for overall operations [8] - Due to recent developments in the semiconductor sector and fluctuations in expenses, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards [8] Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 808.34 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 88.26% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 104.21 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 127.37% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.37 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 108.12 [1] - The company anticipates total revenue of 606.38 million yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 54.07 million yuan [1] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 1,393 million yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.89% [6][9]