中航证券研报指出，中国中免2025年前三季度归母净利润30.52亿元，同比-22.13%；Q3归母净利润4.52 亿元，同比-28.94%。消费需求放缓，公司经营业绩持续承压，但Q3业绩拐点基本确立。海南离岛免税 是公司核心基本盘，已呈现明显的复苏态势。除离岛市场外，公司在口岸与市内店业务上布局领先。消 费场景创新方面，公司深化"免税+文旅"融合，打造"购物+娱乐+体验"新业态，引入迪士尼、泡泡玛特 等IP展和快闪店，成功吸引年轻客群。公司Q3业绩拐点明确，核心海南业务企稳回升，市内免税政策 落地为第二成长曲线打开新空间。随着离岛政策优化、口岸渠道复苏及数字化运营深化，公司有望重回 业绩增长轨道。当前股价对应PE分别为45/38/31倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant strategic decision by the Chinese government to respond to global trade changes and enhance domestic consumption, especially in light of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" [2][35] - The year 2025 marks a critical milestone for Hainan Free Trade Port as it aims to achieve "closure," allowing for a unique operational model where goods can flow freely between Hainan and international markets while being regulated for entry into mainland China [2][14] - Hainan is expected to become a "tax haven" due to four key policies: 1) Exemption from tariffs for products with over 30% value-added processing; 2) Zero tariffs on non-negative list goods post-closure; 3) A reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for qualifying businesses; 4) A progressive personal income tax structure capped at 15% [2][28][30] Group 2 - Hainan is positioned as a dual circulation hub, leveraging its geographical advantages to attract global capital, particularly from foreign enterprises seeking access to the Chinese market [12][31] - The tourism sector is being developed to attract international visitors and promote high-end consumption, with initiatives like duty-free shopping and international medical tourism [41][46] - The report highlights the rapid growth of new enterprises in Hainan, with over 150,000 new companies established annually from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust investment environment [33]