2026 年 01 月 04 日 茅台调整线上渠道 落实市场化转 食品饮料 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 行 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 告 相关研究 《茅台经销商会定调务实转型 临近旺季密 切关注动销——食品饮料行业周报 20251222-20251226》 2025/12/28 《政策重视扩内需提消费 26 年重申看好顺 周期方向——食品饮料行业周报 20251215-20251219》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 型 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251229-20260102 ⚫ 投资分析意见：25 年 12 月中旬以来，权威媒体和高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International initiates a "Buy" rating for Haitian Flavor Industry (603288) with a target price of HKD 39, driven by recovery in the restaurant channel, product innovation, and overseas expansion, projecting an approximately 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2027 [1] Revenue and Growth Projections - Revenue is expected to achieve about 8% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [1] - Net profit is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of around 10% [1] Profitability and Efficiency - Improvement in gross margin and operating profit margin is expected due to declining raw material costs and enhanced efficiency [1] Market Position and Distribution - By the end of 2024, the company is projected to have over 6,700 distributors, ensuring comprehensive coverage across major regions in China [1] - Strong distribution capabilities are expected to support stable nationwide sales [1] Product Innovation and Health Trends - The ongoing health trend is driving product structure upgrades, with the company leveraging its leading R&D capabilities to continuously innovate [1] Overseas Expansion Potential - The company primarily serves overseas markets through a trade model, with short-term overseas expansion likely benefiting from the trend of domestic restaurant brands going global [1] - The overseas business is still in its early stages, with expectations of double-digit CAGR in overseas revenue over the next three years, increasing the proportion of overseas revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International initiates a "Buy" rating for Haitian Flavor Industry (03288) with a target price of HKD 39, driven by the recovery in the catering channel, product innovation, and overseas expansion, projecting an approximate 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2027 [1] Revenue and Growth Projections - Revenue is expected to achieve about 8% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 due to multiple drivers including catering channel recovery, product innovation, and overseas expansion [1] - The company is projected to maintain a net profit growth rate of around 10% [1] Profitability and Efficiency - There is potential for improvement in gross margin and operating profit margin, driven by declining raw material costs and efficiency enhancements [1] Market Position and Distribution - As of the end of 2024, the company will have over 6,700 distributors, ensuring comprehensive coverage of major regions in the country, which supports stable national sales [1] Product Innovation and Health Trends - The ongoing health trend is driving product structure upgrades, with the company leveraging its leading R&D capabilities to continuously innovate products, thereby consolidating its competitive advantage [1] Overseas Expansion Strategy - The company primarily serves overseas markets through a trade model, and short-term overseas expansion is expected to benefit from the trend of domestic catering brands going abroad [1] - The overseas business is still in its early stages, with expectations of double-digit CAGR in overseas revenue over the next three years, which will increase the proportion of overseas revenue [1]

Group 1 - Haitan Flavor Industry plans to launch an IPO from June 11 to June 16, 2025, offering 263 million H-shares with a price range of HKD 35 to 36.3 per share, aiming to raise over HKD 9.27 billion [1] - The IPO has attracted cornerstone investors such as Yuanfeng Fund and Foshan Development, with total cornerstone investment amounting to USD 595 million [1] - The company's strong brand and market share position it well for international expansion, enhancing its competitiveness and driving business innovation [1] Group 2 - Jetstar Asia will cease operations on July 31, 2025, with a gradual reduction of flights, as part of the Australian airline group's strategy to optimize resources in response to competitive pressures in the low-cost airline market [2] - The closure will affect 16 internal Asian routes, while Jetstar's other international routes remain unchanged, indicating a strategic shift rather than a complete withdrawal from the market [2] - Investors should monitor the impact of this closure on the performance of the Australian airline group and the competitive landscape in the low-cost airline sector [2] Group 3 - Yunnan Tourism has reported four consecutive years of losses, with cumulative losses exceeding CNY 1 billion from 2021 to 2024 [3] - A board member plans to sell up to 9.8 million shares, representing 0.9676% of the company's total equity, raising concerns about corporate governance and future development [3] - The ongoing financial struggles and the board member's share reduction may lead to increased stock price volatility in the short term [3] Group 4 - Pop Mart has expanded its production capacity in response to surging demand for its IP products, indicating strong market appeal and brand power [4] - The company faces challenges in meeting demand, highlighting the pressure on its supply chain and operational capabilities [4] - The stock performance reflects investor optimism regarding future growth, with price trends dependent on the alignment of production capacity and market demand [4]

Group 1: McDonald's Expansion in China - McDonald's plans to open nearly half of its new restaurants in China this year, with over 90% of its raw materials sourced locally [2][4] - The company has over 7,000 restaurants in China and aims to continue its expansion in the market [2] Group 2: Mousse Cake Brand Mùsānshān Controversy - The brand Mùsānshān, which has opened 800 stores in one year, faces controversy over selling pre-made frozen cakes as freshly made, infringing on consumer rights [4][5] - Mùsānshān's products are priced between 98 to 398 yuan, with most stores being partnerships rather than direct ownership [5] Group 3: Huǒshànghuǒ's Store Expansion Goals - Huǒshànghuǒ aims to increase the proportion of high-potential stores in its expansion strategy, focusing on both deepening existing markets and exploring new ones [6] - The company targets a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 145 million yuan for the year 2025 [6] Group 4: Haitian Flavor Industry's IPO Plans - Haitian Flavor Industry is evaluating investor demand for a potential IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately $1 billion [7] Group 5: Tims Coffee and Sinopec Partnership - Tims Coffee has ceased operations at all five cooperative stores with Sinopec in Shandong, transitioning to "Yijie Coffee" branding [8] Group 6: Cha Baidao's New Store Concept - Cha Baidao has launched its first handmade store "Cha Baidao·Tàn Chuān Mì Yǐn" in Chengdu, featuring a unique day-to-night concept with a focus on tea and alcohol [9]