Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning market in Northern China is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising temperatures and increased demand, with Haier solidifying its market position in the region [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - From July 7 to July 13, air conditioning sales in Northeast China surged, with sales revenue in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces increasing by 10, 25, and 6 times year-on-year respectively [2]. - In the first half of 2025, Haier's air conditioning products (including brands like Leader and Casarte) achieved a 16% market share in offline retail, ranking third overall, with market shares in Northeast, North China, and Northwest regions at 37%, 24%, and 21% respectively [3]. Group 2: Environmental Factors - The ownership of air conditioners per hundred households in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Hebei is 24, 34, 80, and 160 units, showing increases of 75%, 86%, 64%, and 27% since 2018. In contrast, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang have ownership rates of 232, 257, and 239 units, with growth rates of 15%, 23%, and 8% respectively [4]. - The summer of 2025 has seen unprecedented high temperatures in Northeast China, which, combined with global warming trends, is expected to lead to more frequent high-temperature events in the North, thereby accelerating the demand for air conditioning [4]. Group 3: Company Strategy - Haier's air conditioning division has strengthened its market position in Northern China, with a year-on-year increase in offline retail market share of 1.6% in Northeast and 2.7% in North China, while Midea's market share decreased by 6.0% and 3.8% respectively [5]. - Haier is focusing on high-efficiency, AI-controlled products and has adopted interactive live-streaming for marketing, directly engaging with end-users [7]. - The company is optimizing its supply chain with a new compressor factory in Zhengzhou, designed for an annual capacity of 15 million units, with the first phase expected to produce 3 million units by April 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) with a current price of 25.04 CNY and a target price of 35.54 CNY [1] Core Views - The air conditioning business is significantly improving, and digital transformation is accelerating [1] - The company is expected to see a notable increase in air conditioning operations in 2025, with retail growth outpacing the industry [5] - The company continues to implement a high dividend policy, with a cash dividend ratio of 48.0% for 2024, expected to remain above 50% for 2025-2026 [7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haier Smart Home has appointed a new board and executive team, with key positions filled to enhance operational efficiency [5][11] - The company is focusing on digital marketing and inventory reforms to improve efficiency and brand recognition [6] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 21.5 billion CNY for 2025, with a projected growth rate of 14.82% [10] - Revenue is expected to reach 307.31 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.46% [10] Market Position - Haier's air conditioning retail volume has increased significantly, with online and offline sales growing by 76% and 25% respectively in early 2025 [5] - The company's market share in air conditioning has strengthened, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in online sales [5] Digital Transformation - The launch of Haier Smart Home AI Data Cloud has improved customer interaction and product offerings [6] - The company is replicating its successful digital strategies from the Chinese market to its overseas operations [6] Dividend and Share Buyback - The company plans to repurchase up to 10% of its H shares and 30% of its D shares, with a total buyback amount between 1 billion and 2 billion CNY [7] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 4.8% based on a projected net profit of 21.5 billion CNY [7]