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高频选股因子周报(20250929-20250930)-20251009
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-09 14:37
- The high-frequency skewness factor showed strong performance with long-short returns of 0.9%, 4.93%, and 22.69% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The intraday downside volatility proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.77%, 5.18%, and 18.23% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open buying intention proportion factor had long-short returns of 1.11%, 3.65%, and 19.98% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open buying intention intensity factor had long-short returns of 1.62%, 3.28%, and 25.81% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open large order net buying proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.34%, 1.51%, and 20.7% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open large order net buying intensity factor had long-short returns of 0.38%, 1.51%, and 12.86% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The intraday return factor had long-short returns of 0.98%, 1.26%, and 20.66% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The end-of-day trading proportion factor had long-short returns of 1.25%, 4.18%, and 17.74% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The average single outflow amount proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.29%, 0.26%, and -0.54% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The large order-driven price increase factor had long-short returns of 0.09%, 2.88%, and 8.88% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The GRU(10,2)+NN(10) deep learning factor had long-short returns of 1.33%, 8.73%, and 41.75% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.71%, 3.42%, and 8.08%[5][9] - The GRU(50,2)+NN(10) deep learning factor had long-short returns of 1%, 7.98%, and 42.75% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.63%, 2.99%, and 7.91%[5][9] - The multi-granularity model (5-day label) factor had long-short returns of 0.99%, 6.15%, and 53.09% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.5%, 2.56%, and 19.48%[5][9] - The multi-granularity model (10-day label) factor had long-short returns of 0.81%, 5.2%, and 49.1% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.37%, 2.97%, and 20.1%[5][9] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 500 AI enhanced wide constraint portfolio had excess returns of -0.99%, -4.8%, and -0.06% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 500 AI enhanced strict constraint portfolio had excess returns of -1%, -2.32%, and 2.66% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 1000 AI enhanced wide constraint portfolio had excess returns of -1.48%, -1.06%, and 7.53% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 1000 AI enhanced strict constraint portfolio had excess returns of -0.79%, -0.12%, and 13.11% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11]
高频选股因子周报:高频因子表现分化,深度学习因子依然强势。AI 增强组合分化,500 增强依然大幅回撤,1000 增强回撤收窄。-20250928
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 12:37
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to enhance the CSI 500 index performance by leveraging AI-based factors while applying wide constraints on portfolio construction [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses deep learning factors (e.g., multi-granularity model with 10-day labels) as the basis for stock selection [72] - Constraints include: - Stock weight: 1% - Industry weight: 1% - Market cap weight: 0.3 - Turnover rate constraint: 0.3 - The optimization objective is to maximize expected returns, represented by the formula: $$ max \sum \mu_{i}w_{i} $$ where \( w_{i} \) is the weight of stock \( i \) in the portfolio, and \( \mu_{i} \) is the expected excess return of stock \( i \) [73][74] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates moderate performance under wide constraints, with cumulative excess returns shown over time [75][77] 2. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the wide constraint model but applies stricter constraints to control risk and enhance robustness [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - Constraints include: - Stock weight: 1% - Industry weight: 1% - Market cap weight: 0.1 - Additional constraints: - Market cap squared: 0.1 - ROE: 0.3 - SUE: 0.3 - Volatility: 0.3 - Component stock constraint: 0.8 - Optimization objective remains the same as the wide constraint model [73][74] - **Model Evaluation**: The stricter constraints result in a more stable performance, with cumulative excess returns displayed over time [76][80] 3. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model targets the CSI 1000 index, applying wide constraints while leveraging AI-based factors for enhanced returns [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - Constraints are similar to the CSI 500 wide constraint model, with a focus on smaller-cap stocks [73] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows significant cumulative excess returns, particularly in recent years [79][86] 4. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the wide constraint model but applies stricter constraints to manage risk and improve consistency [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - Constraints are similar to the CSI 500 strict constraint model, tailored for the CSI 1000 index [73] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance under strict constraints, with cumulative excess returns highlighted [85][87] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: -1.36% (last week), -3.85% (September), 0.94% (YTD 2025) [13][78] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 23/39 weeks [13] 2. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: -1.35% (last week), -1.33% (September), 3.70% (YTD 2025) [13][81] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 24/39 weeks [13] 3. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: 0.40% (last week), 0.42% (September), 9.15% (YTD 2025) [13][83] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 26/39 weeks [13] 4. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.19% (last week), 0.67% (September), 14.01% (YTD 2025) [13][90] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 25/39 weeks [13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Intraday Skewness Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the skewness of intraday stock returns to identify potential outperformers [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (19)" [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance with IC values of 0.027 (historical) and 0.042 (2025) [9][10] 2. Factor Name: Downside Volatility Proportion Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of downside volatility in realized volatility to assess risk-adjusted returns [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (25)" [18][20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows moderate performance with IC values of 0.025 (historical) and 0.036 (2025) [9][10] 3. Factor Name: Post-Open Buying Intensity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the intensity of buying activity after market open to identify short-term momentum [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (64)" [22][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: Displays stable performance with IC values of 0.035 (historical) and 0.030 (2025) [9][10] 4. Factor Name: Deep Learning Factor (Improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10)) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes a gated recurrent unit (GRU) and neural network (NN) architecture to predict stock returns [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Combines GRU with NN to capture temporal dependencies in high-frequency data [61][62] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong performance with IC values of 0.066 (historical) and 0.050 (2025) [12][61] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Intraday Skewness Factor - **IC**: 0.027 (historical), 0.042 (2025) [9][10] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 3.82% (September), 16.22% (YTD 2025) [9][10] 2. Downside Volatility Proportion Factor - **IC**: 0.025 (historical), 0.036 (2025) [9][10] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 2.86% (September), 13.58% (YTD 2025) [9][10] 3. Post-Open Buying Intensity Factor - **IC**: 0.035 (historical), 0.030 (2025) [9][10] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 0.65% (September), 11.29% (YTD 2025) [9][10] 4. Deep Learning Factor (Improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10)) - **IC**: 0.066 (historical), 0.050 (2025) [12][61] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 2.13% (September), 7.40% (YTD 2025) [12][61]
高频选股因子周报:高频因子上周有所分化,深度学习因子持续强势。 AI 增强组合均录得正超额。-20250810
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-10 07:58
Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Construction Process - **Factor Name**: Intraday Skewness Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor captures the skewness of intraday stock returns, reflecting the asymmetry in return distribution[13][16][18] **Construction Process**: The factor is calculated based on the third moment of intraday return distribution, normalized by the cube of standard deviation. The detailed methodology is referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (19) - High-Frequency Factors on Stock Return Distribution Characteristics"[13][16][18] - **Factor Name**: Downside Volatility Proportion Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the proportion of downside volatility in the total realized volatility of a stock[18][19][20] **Construction Process**: The factor is derived by decomposing realized volatility into upside and downside components. The methodology is detailed in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (25) - High-Frequency Factors on Realized Volatility Decomposition"[18][19][20] - **Factor Name**: Post-Open Buying Intention Proportion Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor quantifies the proportion of buying intention in the early trading period after market open[22][23][24] **Construction Process**: The factor is constructed using high-frequency data to identify and aggregate buying signals in the post-open period. The methodology is detailed in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (64) - Low-Frequency Applications of High-Frequency Data Based on Intuitive Logic and Machine Learning"[22][23][24] - **Factor Name**: Post-Open Buying Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the intensity of buying activity in the early trading period after market open[27][28][29] **Construction Process**: Similar to the proportion factor, this factor aggregates the magnitude of buying signals during the post-open period, normalized by trading volume[27][28][29] - **Factor Name**: Post-Open Large Order Net Buying Proportion Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor captures the proportion of large order net buying in the early trading period after market open[32][34][35] **Construction Process**: The factor is calculated by summing the net buying of large orders during the post-open period and dividing by total trading volume[32][34][35] - **Factor Name**: Post-Open Large Order Net Buying Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the intensity of large order net buying in the early trading period after market open[37][39][40] **Construction Process**: The factor aggregates the net buying of large orders during the post-open period, normalized by the total number of large orders[37][39][40] - **Factor Name**: Improved Reversal Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor captures the reversal effect in stock returns, adjusted for high-frequency data characteristics[40][43][44] **Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by identifying stocks with extreme short-term returns and measuring their subsequent reversal performance[40][43][44] - **Factor Name**: Deep Learning Factor (Improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10)) **Construction Idea**: This factor leverages a deep learning model combining GRU and neural networks to predict stock returns[63][65][66] **Construction Process**: The model uses 50 GRU units and 10 neural network layers, trained on historical high-frequency data to predict short-term stock returns[63][65][66] - **Factor Name**: Deep Learning Factor (Residual Attention LSTM(48,2)+NN(10)) **Construction Idea**: This factor employs an LSTM model with residual attention mechanisms to enhance prediction accuracy[65][66][68] **Construction Process**: The model uses 48 LSTM units and 10 neural network layers, incorporating residual connections to capture long-term dependencies in high-frequency data[65][66][68] - **Factor Name**: Multi-Granularity Model Factor (5-Day Label) **Construction Idea**: This factor predicts stock returns over a 5-day horizon using a multi-granularity deep learning model[68][69][70] **Construction Process**: The model is trained using bidirectional AGRU (Attention-Gated Recurrent Unit) to capture multi-scale temporal patterns in stock data[68][69][70] - **Factor Name**: Multi-Granularity Model Factor (10-Day Label) **Construction Idea**: Similar to the 5-day label factor, this factor predicts stock returns over a 10-day horizon[69][70][71] **Construction Process**: The model uses the same AGRU architecture as the 5-day label factor but is trained with a 10-day prediction horizon[69][70][71] Factor Backtesting Results - **Intraday Skewness Factor**: - IC: 0.024 (2025), 0.019 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.327 (2025), 0.324 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 16.90% (2025 YTD), -0.66% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 1.84% (2025 YTD), -0.79% (last week)[9][10][13] - **Downside Volatility Proportion Factor**: - IC: 0.020 (2025), 0.016 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.325 (2025), 0.323 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 12.93% (2025 YTD), -1.19% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: -0.12% (2025 YTD), -1.07% (last week)[9][10][18] - **Post-Open Buying Intention Proportion Factor**: - IC: 0.026 (2025), 0.026 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.322 (2025), 0.321 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 13.98% (2025 YTD), 0.27% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 7.20% (2025 YTD), 0.28% (last week)[9][10][22] - **Post-Open Buying Intensity Factor**: - IC: 0.029 (2025), 0.030 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.327 (2025), 0.326 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 18.53% (2025 YTD), 0.05% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 7.09% (2025 YTD), 0.43% (last week)[9][10][27] - **Post-Open Large Order Net Buying Proportion Factor**: - IC: 0.027 (2025), 0.036 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.319 (2025), 0.322 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 18.25% (2025 YTD), 0.31% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 9.48% (2025 YTD), 0.43% (last week)[9][10][32] - **Post-Open Large Order Net Buying Intensity Factor**: - IC: 0.019 (2025), 0.025 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.318 (2025), 0.321 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 10.50% (2025 YTD), 0.31% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 7.08% (2025 YTD), 0.24% (last week)[9][10][37] - **Improved Reversal Factor**: - IC: 0.025 (2025), 0.031 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.331 (2025), 0.330 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 17.44% (2025 YTD), 0.12% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 6.14% (2025 YTD), 0.33% (last week)[9][10][40] - **Deep Learning Factor (Improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10))**: - IC: 0.045 (2025), 0.066 (historical) - e^(-RankMAE): 0.335 (2025), 0.336 (historical) - Long-Short Return: 28.86% (2025 YTD), 1.36% (last week) - Long-Only Excess Return: 2.19% (2025 YTD), 0.06% (last week)[9][10][63] - **Deep Learning Factor (Residual