港口动力煤突破830元/吨，再次刷新年内新高。 尽管港口动力煤价格在创新高，但是涨幅却在收窄。由于短期内煤价涨幅过快，贸易商恐高心理增强，市场情 绪明显降温，分歧开始加大。 业内人士认为，"反内卷"等供给侧调整政策，仍将是推动行业供需再平衡的关键变量。 动力煤价格突破830元/吨 中国煤炭市场网数据显示，截至11月14日，"CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价"5500K、5000K、4500K三个规格 品分别收于831元/吨、736元/吨、641元/吨，比年初上涨62元/吨、65元/吨、69元/吨，再次刷新年内新高。 值得注意的是，尽管港口动力煤价格在创新高，但是涨幅却在收窄。由于短期内煤价涨幅过快，下游抵触心 理、中间贸易商恐高心理增强，市场情绪明显降温，港口海运费已经出现回调。有统计显示，11月13日，秦皇 岛到广州6万—7万吨船运费为52.8元/吨，环比前一日下降1.9元/吨；秦皇岛到上海4万—5万吨船运费为46.1元/ 吨，环比前一日下降2.7元/吨。 目前贸易商对后市看法存在分歧，部分贸易商对后市预期保持乐观，认为这次止涨同10月底那次一样，歇几天 后还会继续上涨；也有贸易商认为，港口上获利盘已经开始松 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight increase in prices while facing a decline in both supply and demand, indicating potential short-term pressure on inventory levels and a fluctuating price trend [2][3]. Industry Overview - During the week of September 8 to September 12, the spot price of port thermal coal increased by 1 yuan/ton, reaching 680 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The average daily inflow of coal to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.6136 million tons, a decrease of 207,900 tons from the previous week, representing an 11.41% decline [2][3]. - The average daily outflow of coal from the same ports was 1.5834 million tons, down by 255,900 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.91% decrease [2][3]. - The number of anchored vessels decreased to 71, down by 7 vessels or 8.82% from the previous week [2][3]. - The inventory level at the Bohai Rim ports was 22.687 million tons, a slight decrease of 23,000 tons or 0.10% from the previous week [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply from production areas remains stable, but port supply has decreased [2][3]. - As the coal industry enters the off-season with declining temperatures, residential electricity demand is expected to weaken, leading to potential short-term pressure on inventory depletion [2][3]. Valuation and Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and the positive growth of premium income, particularly towards leading insurance firms [3]. - There is an ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, and resource stocks are expected to be favored in equity allocations [3]. - Core recommendations include focusing on elastic thermal coal stocks, particularly those with low valuations such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the spot price of port thermal coal increased by 16 yuan/ton week-on-week, closing at 698 yuan/ton during the week of August 18 to August 22 [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The spot price of port thermal coal rose by 16 yuan/ton, reaching 698 yuan/ton [1] - The increase in price is attributed to sustained high temperatures, leading to increased consumption of electricity by both residential and industrial sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal outflow from ports increased week-on-week, while overall inventory levels significantly decreased [1] - The ongoing high temperatures have resulted in a peak season for the coal industry, maintaining high levels of electricity consumption [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The coal price is expected to have strong support in the short term due to continuous inventory depletion [1]