Core Viewpoint - The price of port thermal coal has surpassed 830 yuan/ton, reaching a new high for the year, but the rate of increase is slowing down due to heightened market caution among traders [1][4]. Price Trends - As of November 14, the "CCTD Bohai Rim thermal coal spot reference price" for different specifications is reported as follows: 5500K at 831 yuan/ton, 5000K at 736 yuan/ton, and 4500K at 641 yuan/ton, marking increases of 62 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and 69 yuan/ton respectively since the beginning of the year [4]. - Despite the new high, the price increase is tapering off, with traders exhibiting fear of high prices and a noticeable cooling in market sentiment [2][4]. Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in traders' outlooks for the future; some remain optimistic, believing that the price will rise again after a brief pause, while others anticipate a potential price correction due to profit-taking and expectations of a warmer winter reducing demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The China Electricity Council's report predicts a balanced national power supply and demand during the winter peak, but highlights tight supply in certain regions, particularly in North and East China [5]. - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of ensuring coal supply in key areas and has urged coal-producing regions to enhance communication and coal procurement channels [5]. Policy Impact - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the coal industry are expected to play a crucial role in rebalancing supply and demand, countering previous expectations of long-term oversupply [6]. - In October, China's raw coal production was 40.675 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, indicating a tightening supply due to policy constraints [6]. Demand Insights - In October, the industrial electricity generation reached 800.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, driven by high temperatures in southern regions, which kept electricity demand elevated [7]. - The daily coal consumption by terminal users in eight coastal provinces increased by 9% year-on-year in October, contributing to a notable rise in coal prices during the month [7].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight increase in prices while facing a decline in both supply and demand, indicating potential short-term pressure on inventory levels and a fluctuating price trend [2][3]. Industry Overview - During the week of September 8 to September 12, the spot price of port thermal coal increased by 1 yuan/ton, reaching 680 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The average daily inflow of coal to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.6136 million tons, a decrease of 207,900 tons from the previous week, representing an 11.41% decline [2][3]. - The average daily outflow of coal from the same ports was 1.5834 million tons, down by 255,900 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.91% decrease [2][3]. - The number of anchored vessels decreased to 71, down by 7 vessels or 8.82% from the previous week [2][3]. - The inventory level at the Bohai Rim ports was 22.687 million tons, a slight decrease of 23,000 tons or 0.10% from the previous week [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply from production areas remains stable, but port supply has decreased [2][3]. - As the coal industry enters the off-season with declining temperatures, residential electricity demand is expected to weaken, leading to potential short-term pressure on inventory depletion [2][3]. Valuation and Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and the positive growth of premium income, particularly towards leading insurance firms [3]. - There is an ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, and resource stocks are expected to be favored in equity allocations [3]. - Core recommendations include focusing on elastic thermal coal stocks, particularly those with low valuations such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the spot price of port thermal coal increased by 16 yuan/ton week-on-week, closing at 698 yuan/ton during the week of August 18 to August 22 [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The spot price of port thermal coal rose by 16 yuan/ton, reaching 698 yuan/ton [1] - The increase in price is attributed to sustained high temperatures, leading to increased consumption of electricity by both residential and industrial sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal outflow from ports increased week-on-week, while overall inventory levels significantly decreased [1] - The ongoing high temperatures have resulted in a peak season for the coal industry, maintaining high levels of electricity consumption [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The coal price is expected to have strong support in the short term due to continuous inventory depletion [1]