丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨嘉友国际（603871.SH） [Table_Title] Q2 中蒙业务触底，非洲陆港毛利高增 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025H1，公司营业收入为 40.8 亿元，同比下降 12.0%；归母净利为 5.6 亿元，同比下降 26.1%； 2025Q2，公司营业收入为 17.9 亿元，同比下降 32.4%；归母净利为 3.0 亿元，同比下降 33.9%。 2025Q2，受国内焦煤需求影响，蒙煤量、价双双走弱，Q2 焦煤均价下降约 40%，25Q2 蒙煤 单季度贸易利差基本见底，利润主要来源于跨境物流服务。公司非洲卡萨公路通车量稳步爬坡， 盈利持续释放，赞比亚道路 6 月落地，预计下半年增厚盈利，新项目稳步推进。7 月以来，煤 炭"反内卷"驱动焦煤价格反弹，三季度贸易价差有望见底回升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...

证券代码：000422 证券简称：湖北宜化 湖北宜化化工股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-007 | | | | □特定对象调研 | | □分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投 资 | 者 | 关 | □媒体采访 | | □业绩说明会 | | | 系 活 | 动 | 类 | □新闻发布会 | | □路演活动 | | | 别 | | | □现场参观 | | | | | | | ☑ | 其他（2025 | | 年中报解读电话会） | | | | | | | | | 南方基金、上海明河投资、国联民生证券、汇丰晋信、中金公司、 | | | | | | | | 拾贝投资、国新证券、天戈投资、信银理财、申万宏源、国金证券、 | | | | | | | 太平基金、上海途灵资产、中欧基金、华夏基金、山西证券、千合 | | | | | | | | | 资本、上海茂典资产、平安养老、国泰基金、西部证券、前海红筹、 | | | | | | | 东方证券、上海环懿、华安证券、南方东英资管、勤辰基金、太平 | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The divergence between domestic power generation and industrial added value growth since 2025 is primarily due to a significant slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry, particularly in the mid-to-lower reaches of the equipment manufacturing and downstream consumer goods sectors [2][40] - The current power generation growth slowdown is linked to reduced energy consumption and low operating rates in certain sub-sectors, while industrial added value continues to grow rapidly, supported by the relative high prosperity of large enterprises [2][3] - Historical comparisons indicate that the divergence between power generation and industrial added value growth has occurred multiple times in the past, with the need for capacity clearance and profit improvement to narrow the gap [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Generation and Industrial Added Value Divergence - Since 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of domestic power generation is +0.8%, compared to +5.2% in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant decline in growth [27] - The divergence has been observed in four distinct periods over the past 20 years, with the most recent being influenced by external shocks such as financial crises and pandemics [28][30] Section 2: Factors Influencing Power Generation and Industrial Added Value - The slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry is a major factor contributing to the divergence, with a year-on-year growth of only +2.4% in the first half of 2025 [36][55] - The contribution rate of electricity consumption growth from the secondary industry has significantly decreased, indicating its role as a drag on overall electricity consumption growth [36] Section 3: Coal Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coal supply-demand balance has been relatively loose since 2025, with power coal prices rebounding due to supply reductions from safety and environmental checks, as well as increased demand from high temperatures [4][13] - The report anticipates that the target price for power coal at ports may reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year, depending on the effectiveness of policy measures [4] Section 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels between the current situation and the period from 2012 to 2016, suggesting that a similar recovery in industrial profits and capacity utilization may be necessary to improve the current divergence [3][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sub-sectors within the secondary industry, particularly those with low energy consumption and operating rates, as they significantly impact overall electricity demand [47][52]

煤炭反内卷行情展望 20250814 摘要 动力煤和焦煤今年下半年（2025 年）仍有一定上行空间。动力煤目前价格约 690 元/吨，与去年年底 760 元/吨相比仍有差距；而主焦煤已经接近年初水平。 在反内卷及查超产政策影响下，加之供需紧张局面持续，今年年底动力煤和焦 煤价格大概率能回到去年年底水平或更高。 短期内对哪些因素需要关注？ 国家调控煤价旨在推动物价合理回升，查超产政策旨在减少无序竞争， 调控供给量，政策调整会根据煤价变化进行，以避免价格暴涨对经济造 成损害。 2025 年上半年焦煤供需偏紧，库存减少，年中市场预期扭转，钢铁需 求旺盛，国内产量和进口量下降，反内卷政策加剧供需紧张，预计焦煤 和动力煤价格回升至年初水平或更高。 2025 年下半年动力煤和焦煤仍有上行空间，动力煤价格与去年底相比 仍有差距，主焦煤接近年初水平，在反内卷及查超产政策影响下，年底 价格大概率回到去年年底水平或更高。 短期内需关注煤炭公司中报情况及国家政策调整对市场预期的影响，上 半年盈利状况较差可能影响股市表现，需及时应对市场变化。 当前煤炭股市场预期未充分反映，股价高于 2020 年水平，表明市场悲 观预期不如当时严重， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report highlights that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is positioned to benefit from the recent stabilization of coal prices and the potential for price increases, driven by supply constraints in the coal market. The company exhibits both defensive and offensive characteristics, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Current Market Conditions - The report notes that the coal price has rebounded, with the port price for thermal coal reaching 688 RMB/ton as of August 12, an increase of 67 RMB/ton (+11%) since early July. This price recovery is attributed to ongoing supply tightening in the coal market [6]. Investment Logic - The investment logic for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is based on several factors: 1. High proportion of spot sales allows the company to benefit significantly from price increases. 2. The company has a unique growth profile characterized by both organic growth and external acquisitions. 3. The significant discount of H-shares compared to A-shares enhances the investment value, particularly with a high dividend yield [2]. Sales and Profitability - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has a high proportion of spot sales, with 52% of its self-produced coal sales being thermal coal, most of which is not under long-term contracts. This results in a higher earnings elasticity compared to other major coal producers. A 100 RMB/ton increase in thermal coal prices could potentially increase the company's earnings by approximately 5.3 billion RMB, representing a 56% increase in expected earnings for 2025 [12][14]. Growth Strategy - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year within 5-10 years. In 2024, the company produced 142 million tons of commodity coal, with plans for significant capacity expansions through both internal projects and acquisitions. The expected increase in coal production capacity is projected to be around 49.8 million tons per year [12][14]. Dividend Policy - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% from 2023 to 2025, with a projected dividend yield of 5.7% for H-shares in 2025. This high dividend yield is a key attraction for investors [12][17]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.5 billion RMB in 2025, translating to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14.2x based on the closing price on August 12. The estimated dividend yield based on the 2024 payout ratio is 3.8% [12][25].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing increased regulatory scrutiny from the National Energy Administration aimed at stabilizing coal prices to support electricity prices and the overall economic environment [1][2][10] - The coal production in China is expected to see fluctuations due to regulatory measures and market dynamics, with a projected total annual output of 4.8 billion tons for 2025, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The National Energy Administration's intervention in the coal industry is a response to low coal prices and excessive production, indicating a shift towards stricter regulations to ensure price recovery [2][10] - The average long-term electricity price has been reduced by 0.02 yuan, while coal prices have dropped significantly by approximately 250 yuan, which could lead to further reductions in electricity prices in 2026 if the trend continues [2] - The coal production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is expected to decline in the latter half of 2025 due to the cancellation of freight subsidies and stricter regulatory oversight [1][5][6] - A specific case of Shanxi Coking Coal reducing working days from 320 to 276 days is noted, but this is not expected to become a widespread industry trend [3][4] Production and Demand Dynamics - National coal production reached a historical high of 440 million tons in late 2024 and early 2025, but has since seen a decline due to falling prices and regulatory measures [4][10] - The coal demand fluctuations are attributed to changes in electricity consumption patterns, with a notable increase in residential and tertiary sector electricity usage [11] - The impact of renewable energy development on thermal power demand is significant, with a negative growth rate observed in thermal power demand in early 2025 due to increased renewable installations [12][13] Future Outlook - The coal industry is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, with a projected monthly production decrease of about 20 million tons compared to June 2025, leading to a total of 240 million tons for the second half of the year [7][8] - The exit of the production guarantee policy is anticipated to have limited actual impact on coal production, as most unlicensed production capacity has already been phased out [8][9] - The market sentiment is shifting, with a recognition of the cyclical nature of the coal industry and potential for recovery as supply stabilizes and demand increases [10][13] Investment Opportunities - China Shenhua's recent acquisition plan reflects positive market sentiment towards state-owned enterprise reforms and is expected to enhance profitability as the industry recovers [2][16] - Recommended coal companies include Jinko, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal, Shenhua, and Yanzhou Coal, with specific recommendations for coking coal companies like Pingmei, Huaiyin, Lu'an, and Shanxi Coking Coal [17]

近期国家能源局综合司发布《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查，促进煤炭供应平稳有序 的通知》，对8个重点省（区）（山西、内蒙古、安徽、河南、贵州、陕西、宁夏、新疆） 煤矿生产情况进行核查，已经进入联合试运转的煤矿参照生产煤矿进行核查。1）核查内容 包括：一是煤矿2024年全年原煤产量是否超过公告产能（其中已进入联合试运转的煤矿以公 告的建设规模为准，下同），2025年1-6月单月原煤产量是否超过公告产能的10%；二是企 业集团公司在安排2025年计划时，是否向所属煤矿下达超过公告产能的生产计划及相关经济 指标；三是煤矿在安排2025年季度、月度生产计划时，是否存在不均衡、不合理的情况。 2）时间表：8月15日之前，有关省（区）煤炭管理部门核查汇总报送国家能源局，国家能源 局将对部分产煤省（区）核查工作进行【适时抽查】。 天风证券近日发布煤炭开采行业专题研究：煤炭反内卷或意在"破除通缩螺旋"，电煤长 协基准价675元/吨，或仍然是值得重视的关键点位。政策工具箱已经亮出，用不用、什么时 候用、用到什么力度，应该取决于上述目标是否良好达成。在政策工具箱作用下，年底前动 力煤港口5500大卡目标价区间有望至700-750元 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The target price range for thermal coal at ports is expected to reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year [4][24] - The report emphasizes the need to break the coal-electricity deflation spiral, with a focus on controlling production rates to avoid excessive competition [13][16][25] - The coal supply situation is being closely monitored, with a national coal production target of approximately 4.8 billion tons for 2025 [4][21] Summary by Sections Coal Mine Overproduction Inspection - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal production in eight key provinces to ensure that production does not exceed announced capacities [2][11] - The inspections will assess whether the coal mines' production plans for 2025 exceed the announced capacities by more than 10% [11][12] Inventory Changes - In 2024, the inventory of thermal coal is projected to increase by approximately 28.34 million tons based on major port, pit, and power plant inventories [3][22] - An alternative calculation method suggests that the total inventory increase could be around 92.69 million tons, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [3][21] Policy Toolbox and Adjustability - The report discusses the potential for policy adjustments to manage coal production and supply, highlighting the importance of maintaining a balance between production and market prices [4][25] - The report notes that while there may not be nationwide overproduction, certain regions may still face issues due to high capacity utilization [21][23] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market has begun to self-correct, with thermal coal prices rebounding after hitting a low in mid-June 2025 [21] - The coal industry's current dynamics suggest that controlling production rates is crucial to avoid a deflationary spiral in coal prices [16][25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal prices has led to regulatory intervention by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, implementing trading limits to curb speculation, resulting in a significant price correction for both coking coal and coke futures [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures experienced a dramatic increase, rising by 333 points or 36% in a week, with trading limits imposed on July 29 to control excessive speculation [2][3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has set daily opening limits for non-futures company members at 500 lots for the JM2509 contract and 2000 lots for other contracts [2]. - The market sentiment shifted rapidly as speculative trading turned, leading to a strong reaction against previous bullish trends [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Coking coal and coke production data indicate a mixed supply situation, with coking coal inventories at 536 million tons, down 13%, and premium coal inventories at 278.4 million tons, down 18%, marking a nine-month low [3][4]. - Steel mills are maintaining high production levels, with iron water output at over 242 million tons, contributing to increased demand for coking coal despite high prices [2][4]. - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains strong, with downstream purchasing activity increasing, although the pace of procurement for high-priced coal has slowed [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts expect short-term volatility in the market, with the potential for price adjustments following the recent rapid increases [5][6]. - The focus is shifting from speculative trading to fundamental supply and demand dynamics, as the market adjusts to regulatory measures and the impact of production checks on coal mines [6]. - The current trading environment is characterized by intense competition, with expectations of price corrections in the near term as market participants await new driving factors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy from the National Energy Administration aims to regulate coal production, with expectations of reduced output in the future, impacting coal prices and production levels in the industry [2][3][6]. Production Regulation - The policy focuses on coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, with a specific emphasis on monitoring production against announced capacities for 2024 and the first half of 2025 [2]. - The notification is a reiteration of previous standards established in 2021, indicating a long-term regulatory approach rather than a new initiative [2]. - Current data shows that there has not been widespread overproduction at the provincial level, although individual companies may still exhibit imbalances [2][4]. - The enforcement of this policy will be closely monitored, particularly as it relates to the responsibilities of safety supervision agencies [5]. Production Impact - Current estimates suggest that overproduction in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang could reach approximately 200 million tons, with a significant portion attributed to Xinjiang [6]. - The coal production growth rate from July 2024 to June 2025 is projected at 4.8%, indicating a high production level even without considering overproduction management [6]. Price Trends - Since June, there has been a recovery in coal prices, with thermal coal and coking coal prices increasing by approximately 6% and 17%, respectively [7]. - Factors contributing to the price increase include seasonal demand, inventory replenishment in the steel sector, a significant drop in imports, and a slowdown in production growth [8]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to shift from a loose state to a tighter one in the second half of the year [9]. Industry Outlook - The coal sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery due to changing expectations, with a focus on companies that exhibit high elasticity and low valuations [10]. - The current regulatory approach differs from past supply-side reforms, suggesting a more measured strategy that allows for gradual adjustments in the coal industry [10]. Key Companies - Relevant companies in the coal industry include China Coal Energy (601898), Yancoal Australia (03668), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), China Shenhua Energy (601088), and China Qinfa (00866) [11].