证券研究报告 煤炭低位多重正向边际催化，周期红利双逻辑共振向上 煤炭行业2026年春季投资策略 姓名 王高展（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070003 邮箱：wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 姓名 程镱（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090001 邮箱：chengyi@kysec.cn 2026年3月2日 核心观点 1. 行业革新：多重边际催化煤价趋于合理，反内卷逻辑依旧 2016年以来供给侧改革成功的标杆与典范，随着国内能源结构的转型、以及双碳政策深入推进，行业有望再次迎来供给侧改革（即反内卷）。供给 侧改革或反内卷的标准定义分为两个阶段：一是减产量抬煤价，二是去产能调结构，二者缺一不可，且二是一的基础。碳达峰之后我们会面临再次 的产能过剩，当前提前着手于供给端的产能优化，此外，印尼进口煤的扰动将加速煤价趋于合理区间，国内煤炭供需趋于平衡，我们分析认为翘盼 的反内卷虽与2016年多有相似，但会有其独特性，将为煤炭的稳健有序发展、价格的平稳运行保驾护航。 2.动力煤价格反弹后将区间波动，炼焦煤价格反弹具备完全弹性 动力煤属于政策煤种，我们判断价格上行将经历"修复央企长协、修复地方长协、达 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the trend of reversing the "involution" in the coal industry remains unchanged, with expectations for performance improvement in Q4 and potential recovery in 2026 if prices remain high [1] - The report highlights that since 2025, coal stocks have been negatively impacted by falling coal prices, but the pessimistic outlook has significantly eased following the implementation of Document No. 108 [1] - The concept of "involution" is aimed at reversing deflation trends, with a transmission chain of "deflation → reversal of involution → profit improvement → inflation," suggesting that short-term supply control and medium-term demand recovery are crucial for the coal sector [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates that coal consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to peak, but coal will still play a crucial role in ensuring energy security [2] - It is projected that the demand for electricity from coal will not be significantly squeezed by the growth of renewable energy until the increase in renewable power generation exceeds the overall electricity demand growth [2] - The report suggests that in 2026, electricity demand must be maintained at a certain level to ensure that the demand for thermal power remains unaffected by renewable energy [2] Group 3 - For 2026, the forecast for thermal coal prices is expected to maintain a tight balance, with a central prediction of around 720 yuan/ton [3] - The report indicates that while market pressure for thermal coal will persist in the first half of 2026, it is expected to ease compared to the same period in 2025 [3] - The forecast for coking coal prices in 2026 is expected to show a weak balance with moderate elasticity, with a central price range of approximately 1440-1584 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward potential of coking coal and coke before the Spring Festival is expected to be a weak rebound. Recent price fluctuations are mainly influenced by news rather than fundamental factors, and the sustainability of these fluctuations is questionable. - The current market trading logic focuses on several aspects: the multi - short game near the delivery date, the topic of anti - involution in the coal industry, and the expected tightening of imported coal supply, though the authenticity of the latter has not been confirmed. - Given the current supply - demand imbalance and the limited driving force of the winter storage replenishment market, sentiment can amplify price fluctuations. It is advisable to consider gradually closing out the previous 1 - 5 inverse spreads [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Outlook 3.1.1 Supply - Some domestic coal mines have reduced production and carried out maintenance after completing their annual production tasks, leading to a significant short - term decline in output. Pit - mouth coal prices are supported by strong sentiment. The market trading atmosphere is cautious, with low speculative purchasing by traders and only rigid demand from end - users. High - priced coking coal resources face significant resistance in transactions. - In terms of imports, port trading enterprises are experiencing poor sales, and downstream market inquiries are weak. There are still expectations of price cuts in the domestic coking coal and coke market. However, the Ganqimaodu port continues to operate at a high level of customs clearance, and the port inventory has exceeded 3.8 million tons [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - Pig iron production remains at a low level, with an average daily output of 2.2658 million tons this week. The winter storage market has been delayed, and the supply - demand imbalance in the coke market persists. There is still a possibility of a fourth round of price cuts [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 909,000 tons week - on - week, with inventory accumulation in all sectors, mainly in the upstream and intermediate sectors. Near the end of the year, port customs clearance remains high, and some port inventories have been transferred to coal washing plants. The coking coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 253,000 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory of the three ports increased by 259,000 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Market Data | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.3473 million tons (- 58,200 tons); FW clean coal 4.2769 million tons (- 43,900 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average output 627,000 tons (- 3,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average output 468,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) | | Demand | Pig iron production 2.2658 million tons (+ 300 tons) | Pig iron production 2.2658 million tons (+ 300 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 909,000 tons; Mine raw coal - 34,200 tons; Independent coking + 34,000 tons; Mine clean coal + 17,400 tons; Steel mill coking + 17,000 tons; Port + 234,000 tons; Port + 259,000 tons | MS total inventory + 144,000 tons; Independent coking + 11,000 tons; Steel mill + 85,000 tons; Port + 47,000 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 515 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton) | Average profit of coking enterprises 34 yuan/ton (- 26 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal warehouse receipt in Tangshan 1,159 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,600 yuan/ton | [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - Weekly and monthly data on coking coal supply from domestic mines and Mongolian coal customs clearance are presented, including the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines decreased by 34,200 tons to 2.0466 million tons, while the clean coal inventory increased by 17,400 tons to 1.3489 million tons. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.995 million tons, an increase of 133,000 tons week - on - week. - Coking plant inventory: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are provided, including overall and regional data. - Steel mill inventory: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [23][25][28][33]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Data on the capacity utilization rate and production of coke in coking plants and steel mills are presented, including overall and regional data [37][43][45][47]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Data on the inventory and available days of coke in coking plants, steel mills, and the overall sample are provided, including overall and regional data [49][50][55]. 3.3.3 Demand - Pig iron production is used as an indicator of coke demand, with an average daily output of 2.2658 million tons this week [6]. 3.3.4 Profit - Data on the profit of coke production, including the disk profit of coke futures and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, are presented [60]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Futures - Data on the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 contracts, as well as coke 2601 and 2605 contracts, are provided, including daily price changes [64][68]. 3.4.2 Month - to - Month Spread - Data on the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke futures are presented [71]. 3.4.3 Spot - Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided, including the car - board price of coking coal and the ex - factory price of coke [73]. 3.4.4 Basis - Data on the basis of coking coal and coke futures are presented [76][77].

Core Insights - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" with a maintained rating, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The report highlights an improvement in market conditions, suggesting a gradual recovery in coal prices and overall industry performance [2] Investment Highlights - The coal price is expected to decline initially in 2025 before rebounding, with the coal sector projected to yield positive absolute returns, albeit underperforming the CSI 300 index [5] - Domestic supply is anticipated to decrease in 2026 due to production restrictions, with varying impacts across provinces: Shanxi is expected to reduce washed coal output, Inner Mongolia's production is at its peak, Shaanxi faces capacity exit pressures, and Xinjiang has potential for increased output [5] - Import coal volumes are projected to decline in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% from January to October. A slight recovery is expected in 2026, particularly in thermal coal from Mongolia, while Australian and American imports are anticipated to decrease [5] - Electricity demand is shifting, with significant increases in hydropower and wind energy, leading to a reduction in thermal power generation in 2025. However, a recovery in thermal power demand is expected in 2026 [5] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the supply of coal is likely to decline in 2026, with marginal improvements in thermal power and stabilization in non-electric demand, contributing to an overall improvement in coal market conditions [6] - The average price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 RMB in 2026, while coking coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at the bottom, with demand improvements being a key factor [6] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize leading companies with strong resource endowments, effective cost control, and high long-term contract ratios, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies that are expected to benefit from improving coal prices include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, and Guanghui Energy [6] - Coking coal companies are recommended due to their strong resource scarcity and potential benefits from counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment policies, with a focus on Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [6] Policy Impact - The report discusses the effectiveness of supply-side reforms in stabilizing coal prices, indicating that recent production restrictions have positively influenced market conditions [21][27] - The relationship between coal prices and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is emphasized, with stable coal prices being crucial for stabilizing PPI, which has been under pressure for an extended period [30][42]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to enter a long-term upward cycle due to a solidified price floor and limited growth in new coal production capacity, despite a decrease in coal production and imports in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Coal Supply - In the first nine months of 2025, domestic coal production increased by 2% year-on-year, but there was a significant decline in production following the release of the National Energy Administration's document No. 108 in July, with production in July, August, and September showing year-on-year decreases of -3.8%, -3.2%, and -1.8% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2025, coal production in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang was 32.9 million tons, 30.9 million tons, 20.3 million tons, and 12.3 million tons respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.6%, -0.3%, +0.1%, and -12.3% [1]. Group 2: Coal Imports - In the first nine months of 2025, coal imports totaled 34.6 million tons, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year. Specifically, imports of Indonesian coal were 14.3 million tons, down by 2.525 million tons or 15% year-on-year [2]. - Imports of Mongolian coal reached 6.192 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons or 2.1% year-on-year, but the proportion of imported coking coal decreased from 71.6% to 67.4% [2]. Group 3: Coal Demand - Short-term demand for coal is structurally weak due to a slowdown in electricity consumption growth and competition from renewable energy sources, with total thermal power generation in the first nine months of 2025 at 4,696.9 billion kWh, down 1.2% year-on-year [3]. - The steel sector shows resilience, with cumulative profits of key steel enterprises reaching 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [3]. - Chemical coal demand remains high but is slowing, with an average weekly coal consumption of 6.9 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, up 12.7% year-on-year [3]. - The building materials sector continues to be affected by real estate, with coal consumption of 18.6 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than the 9.1% drop in the same period of 2024 [3]. Group 4: Industry Policy and Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy in the coal industry aims to control production release through capacity utilization rates, balancing supply and demand to support coal prices, with ongoing supply constraints expected [4]. - The central government's focus on regulating disorderly competition and promoting capacity governance is seen as crucial for the industry's recovery [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) for their long-term benefits from a solidified coal price floor [5]. - In the context of rising coal prices, companies like Yanzhou Coal (600188.SH), Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), and Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH) are recommended for their valuation recovery potential [5]. - Coking coal companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) and Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH) are expected to benefit from the steel industry's "anti-involution" [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [6][39]. Core Insights - In October, thermal power demand increased against the trend, leading to an unexpected rise in coal prices. The supply of raw coal showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production from January to October reaching 3.973 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but with a declining growth rate [5][6]. - The report highlights that while fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, thermal power demand saw a notable increase of 7.3% in October, contrasting with declines in other sectors such as real estate [5][6]. - Coal imports showed a downward trend, with cumulative imports from January to October at 388 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. In October alone, imports were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that coal prices in October rose unexpectedly, driven by increased demand from downstream power plants and a reduction in inventory at ports. The report suggests that if coal prices continue to rise significantly, it may attract policy attention [6][7]. Summary by Sections Supply - From January to October 2025, raw coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with October production at 407 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year and 1.16% month-on-month [5][6]. Demand - The demand for thermal power increased by 7.3% in October, while cumulative demand for fixed asset investment showed a decline of 1.7% year-on-year. Other sectors like real estate and cement experienced significant declines [5][6]. Imports - Coal imports decreased, with a cumulative total of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11% year-on-year drop. October imports were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year [5][6]. Prices - Coal prices saw an unexpected rise in October, with various types of coal showing different price trends. The report notes that the price increase is supported by strong demand and reduced supply expectations [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal sector in the fourth quarter, with specific stocks recommended for investment based on their performance and market conditions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of port thermal coal has surpassed 830 yuan/ton, reaching a new high for the year, but the rate of increase is slowing down due to heightened market caution among traders [1][4]. Price Trends - As of November 14, the "CCTD Bohai Rim thermal coal spot reference price" for different specifications is reported as follows: 5500K at 831 yuan/ton, 5000K at 736 yuan/ton, and 4500K at 641 yuan/ton, marking increases of 62 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and 69 yuan/ton respectively since the beginning of the year [4]. - Despite the new high, the price increase is tapering off, with traders exhibiting fear of high prices and a noticeable cooling in market sentiment [2][4]. Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in traders' outlooks for the future; some remain optimistic, believing that the price will rise again after a brief pause, while others anticipate a potential price correction due to profit-taking and expectations of a warmer winter reducing demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The China Electricity Council's report predicts a balanced national power supply and demand during the winter peak, but highlights tight supply in certain regions, particularly in North and East China [5]. - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of ensuring coal supply in key areas and has urged coal-producing regions to enhance communication and coal procurement channels [5]. Policy Impact - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the coal industry are expected to play a crucial role in rebalancing supply and demand, countering previous expectations of long-term oversupply [6]. - In October, China's raw coal production was 40.675 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, indicating a tightening supply due to policy constraints [6]. Demand Insights - In October, the industrial electricity generation reached 800.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, driven by high temperatures in southern regions, which kept electricity demand elevated [7]. - The daily coal consumption by terminal users in eight coastal provinces increased by 9% year-on-year in October, contributing to a notable rise in coal prices during the month [7].

Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to undergo a "reverse involution" process in two stages, focusing on reasonable price operation and supply-side reform, driven by energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality policies [3][10][14] - The price of thermal coal is projected to experience four target stages, with coking coal prices expected to recover in relation to thermal coal [4][20] - The dual attributes of coal as both a cyclical and dividend stock make it a preferred asset for market allocation, with specific stocks identified for investment based on cyclical logic, dividend potential, diversification, and growth [5][9] Industry Innovation - The first stage of the reverse involution involves production reduction to stabilize coal prices, utilizing measures such as production checks and environmental regulations [10][14] - The second stage focuses on capacity reduction and structural adjustment to solidify the results of the first stage, enhancing the quality and concentration of production capacity [14][17] Price Judgement - The recovery of thermal coal prices is expected to follow a path that includes restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving a profit-sharing line for coal and power enterprises, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][20] - The target prices for coking coal are linked to the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with specific price targets set for different recovery stages [4][20] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by both cyclical and dividend attributes, making it a valuable asset in the current economic context [5][9] - Four main investment lines are identified: cyclical logic (e.g., Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源), dividend logic (e.g., 中国神华, 中煤能源), diversification (e.g., 神火股份, 电投能源), and growth logic (e.g., 新集能源, 广汇能源) [5][9] Domestic Supply - New coal production capacity is limited, with a significant focus on maintaining existing mines and enhancing operational efficiency rather than expanding capacity [26][27] - The coal production in Xinjiang is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that it may surpass that of Shaanxi by 2025 [27][32] Domestic Demand - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise due to economic recovery and seasonal peaks, with power plants maintaining high consumption levels [53][55] - Non-electric coal demand is expected to benefit from policies supporting coal chemical projects, with significant increases in coal consumption anticipated in the chemical, construction, and metallurgy sectors [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that coal prices are nearing a short-term peak, with a slight decline expected as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited. The coal production in China has shown a continuous year-on-year decline from July to September, influenced by the government's intervention in the coal sector [1]. Supply Side - The coal production in China for July, August, and September was 380 million, 390 million, and 410 million tons respectively, showing a year-on-year decline. For Q4, production is expected to slightly decrease due to "overproduction checks," maintaining a monthly output of 390-400 million tons from October to December, with an annual production estimate of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30-50 million tons year-on-year [1]. Demand Side - The total electricity consumption in society from August to September has increased to 4.6%, a significant rise from the 2.5% growth in Q1. The annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%. Despite entering the typical demand off-season in September and October, demand has shown unexpected strength, with daily consumption in East China reaching the highest level in the past five years [2]. Thermal Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port in Northern China was 778 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week. Domestic supply is stable while imports continue to decline. The overall supply is expected to maintain a steady decline, while demand has significantly improved, leading to a potential rebound in Q3 profitability [3]. Coking Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the off-season [4]. Industry Review - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton (0.0%), while the price of port-level coking coal was 1718 yuan/ton (3.3%). The total inventory of coking coal across three ports was 2.837 million tons (5.4%), with a utilization rate of 73.44% for coking enterprises with inventories over 200,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle Port in Australia increased by 1 USD/ton (2.0%), while the cost of domestic Q5500 coal was 15 yuan/ton higher than that of imported coal [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing strong demand resilience due to the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to higher-than-expected coal prices. The coal sector's supply-demand dynamics are improving, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The probability of a cold winter is increasing due to the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to persist from December 2025 to February 2026, potentially leading to lower temperatures in China's central and eastern regions [2]. - The current weather conditions, characterized by high temperatures in the south and sudden drops in temperature in the north, are significantly driving up coal consumption [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The coal supply is being constrained by government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, with national coal production in July and August at 380 million and 390 million tons, respectively, which is below the average monthly production of approximately 400 million tons over the past year and a half [2]. - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with expectations of a slight decline in production in Q4 due to ongoing checks for overproduction [2][3]. - The central government's environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are causing disruptions in open-pit mining operations, further impacting coal production [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints and rising winter demand, with both thermal and coking coal prices having upward elasticity [4]. - Current prices for thermal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for potential rebounds, supported by the supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has seen significant growth, exceeding 13 billion yuan, and offers a high dividend yield of over 5.3% as of September 30, making it an attractive investment option [5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on the investment opportunities within the coal sector [5].