Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Energy is a leading coal company in North China, with significant coal bases in Shandong, Shaanxi, Mongolia, and Australia, and is the only major coal enterprise in China with substantial overseas resources [1] Group 1: Capacity Growth - The company plans to increase coal production capacity to 300 million tons per year by 2030, as outlined in its development strategy [1] - Capacity growth will primarily be achieved through asset injections and the construction of new mines, with asset injections being the largest contributor [1][2] Group 2: Recent Acquisitions - As of September 30, 2023, the company acquired 51% stakes in both Luxi Mining and Xinjiang Energy Chemical, with plans to acquire 51% of Northwest Mining by July 2025 [2] - By September 2025, the company is expected to have a total coal production capacity of 340 million tons, with 280 million tons currently in production and 63 million tons under construction [2] Group 3: Upcoming Production Contributions - The Wanfeng Coal Mine is set to contribute 1.8 million tons of coking coal by December 2024, and the first phase of the Yancoal Qicaiwan No. 4 Coal Mine will add 10 million tons of thermal coal by July 2025 [2] - Additional mines under construction include Liu Sangadan (10 million tons), Galutu (8 million tons), and Hohhot No. 1 (7 million tons), among others [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The National Energy Administration's directive to halt overproduction in coal mines is expected to stabilize coal prices, with 30% of inspected mines in Inner Mongolia exceeding production limits [3] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, committing to a payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2023 to 2025, with a projected dividend of 0.18 yuan per share in 2025 [3] - The company's current low PE valuation in the Hong Kong market, combined with a high dividend yield, presents an attractive investment opportunity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic restructuring of Henan Energy and China Pingmei Shenma Group, as announced by five listed companies including Pingmei Shares, marks a significant breakthrough in state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform within the coal and electricity sector, potentially igniting a new wave of SOE reform in A-shares [1][2]. Group 1: SOE Reform and Investment Opportunities - The recent announcement of strategic restructuring by the Henan provincial government is expected to create investment opportunities, likely leading to a sector-wide effect [2]. - The acquisition plan by China Shenhua, involving assets worth hundreds of billions, reflects a top-down approach from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to the group and listed companies [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In August, the total electricity consumption in society grew by 4.6%, a significant increase from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating a recovery in demand that contradicts previous market pessimism [3]. - The production of raw coal in large-scale industries in August was 39 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the national coal production in July and August was 38 million and 39 million tons respectively, which is notably lower than the average monthly production of approximately 40 million tons over the past 18 months [3]. - For the second half of the year, coal production is expected to slightly decline due to "overproduction checks," with total production projected to be between 235-240 million tons, maintaining an annual total of 475-480 million tons, which is roughly flat year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Coal Prices and Market Trends - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 713 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous week, with expectations of a rebound in Q3 profitability due to improved demand from June to August [4]. - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1710 RMB/ton, showing a 6.2% increase, indicating a rebound in both futures and spot markets [5]. - The average daily iron and steel production slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to show a clear upward trend due to structural supply issues and seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" policy promoting production discipline [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, especially as prices stabilize and begin to rise in response to seasonal demand and supply constraints [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Operational Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of production discipline and the impact of government policies on coal supply, which are expected to tighten supply further [7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is anticipated to support non-electric coal demand, with winter stockpiling expected to boost thermal coal demand [7][8]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at the port is 707 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2 RMB/ton [8]. - The report notes that the price of coking coal at the port has increased by 80 RMB/ton, indicating a strong demand in the steel sector [8]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.651 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [8]. - The report indicates that coal inventories at northern ports are at a phase of low levels, which may lead to further price increases if not replenished effectively [7][8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The average daily iron water output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4236 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.56% [8]. - The report highlights the correlation between coal prices and downstream demand from the steel industry, which is expected to remain strong [8]. 5. Recent Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report suggests focusing on high-elasticity stocks such as Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控煤业, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [7][8].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 除了超产核查，煤炭"反内卷"政策工具箱还有哪些措施可以期待？我们认为，考虑到 2021 年 增产保供政策实施以来存在先放量后补齐产能置换手续的核增产能，且 2025 年底或是其兑现 产能置换承诺的截止时间，因此政策要求下，这部分产能存在退出风险，则供给边际收敛下煤 价及板块有望迎来上行催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：节前冬储补库需求释 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, down 26.1% [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 300 million yuan, down 33.9% [2][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit was primarily due to weakened demand for Mongolian coal, with the average price of coking coal dropping approximately 40% in Q2 2025 [2][4]. - The company is seeing steady growth in its African logistics projects, particularly with the opening of the Kasai highway and the expected profit increase from new projects in Zambia [2][4]. - Since July, the rebound in coking coal prices driven by "anti-involution" in the coal market is expected to lead to a recovery in trade price differentials in Q3 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, down 26.1% [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 33.9% [2][4]. - The company announced an interim dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share (including tax), with a payout ratio of 48.8% [4]. Business Operations - The Mongolian coal business faced challenges, with both volume and price declining due to domestic demand issues, leading to a significant drop in revenue from this segment [2][4]. - The company has been expanding its overseas logistics network, establishing international transport fleets and specialized teams in Mongolia, Africa, and Central Asia, which has resulted in a rapid increase in cross-border logistics service revenue [2][4]. - The Kasai highway's traffic volume is steadily increasing, contributing to sustained profitability, with new projects in Zambia expected to enhance earnings in the second half of the year [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the Mongolian coal supply chain trade business will recover from its performance bottom, with a potential rebound in earnings in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The logistics network in Africa is taking shape, with ongoing projects expected to drive high growth, which the market may currently underestimate [2][4]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company are 1.30 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9, 11.0, and 9.4 [2][4].

Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 12.005 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.98% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 399 million CNY, down 43.92% compared to the previous year [2] - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were 44.305 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [2] - The net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.64% to 5.454 billion CNY [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 8.06 billion CNY, with a net profit of 365 million CNY, showing significant quarter-on-quarter growth [2] Market and Production Insights - The company completed a major asset restructuring in June, increasing its stake in Xinjiang Yihua from 35.597% to 75%, making it a subsidiary [3] - Xinjiang Yihua has a coal resource of 2.108 billion tons, with a current production capacity of 30 million tons per year [3] - The company has an annual production capacity of 2.16 million tons of urea, 1.65 million tons of phosphate ammonium, and 900,000 tons of PVC, ranking among the top in the country [3] - The company plans to develop coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-synthetic ammonia, and high-value coal conversion projects [4] Pricing and Profitability - The current FOB price for diammonium phosphate is approximately 800 USD, with a domestic price difference of about 1,700 CNY per ton, improving export profitability [5] - The mainstream price for single pentanediol is around 11,000 CNY per ton, while double pentanediol is priced at approximately 70,000 CNY per ton [6] - New production facilities for pentanediol are expected to be operational by the end of 2025, which will enhance profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The divergence between domestic power generation and industrial added value growth since 2025 is primarily due to a significant slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry, particularly in the mid-to-lower reaches of the equipment manufacturing and downstream consumer goods sectors [2][40] - The current power generation growth slowdown is linked to reduced energy consumption and low operating rates in certain sub-sectors, while industrial added value continues to grow rapidly, supported by the relative high prosperity of large enterprises [2][3] - Historical comparisons indicate that the divergence between power generation and industrial added value growth has occurred multiple times in the past, with the need for capacity clearance and profit improvement to narrow the gap [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Generation and Industrial Added Value Divergence - Since 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of domestic power generation is +0.8%, compared to +5.2% in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant decline in growth [27] - The divergence has been observed in four distinct periods over the past 20 years, with the most recent being influenced by external shocks such as financial crises and pandemics [28][30] Section 2: Factors Influencing Power Generation and Industrial Added Value - The slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry is a major factor contributing to the divergence, with a year-on-year growth of only +2.4% in the first half of 2025 [36][55] - The contribution rate of electricity consumption growth from the secondary industry has significantly decreased, indicating its role as a drag on overall electricity consumption growth [36] Section 3: Coal Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coal supply-demand balance has been relatively loose since 2025, with power coal prices rebounding due to supply reductions from safety and environmental checks, as well as increased demand from high temperatures [4][13] - The report anticipates that the target price for power coal at ports may reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year, depending on the effectiveness of policy measures [4] Section 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels between the current situation and the period from 2012 to 2016, suggesting that a similar recovery in industrial profits and capacity utilization may be necessary to improve the current divergence [3][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sub-sectors within the secondary industry, particularly those with low energy consumption and operating rates, as they significantly impact overall electricity demand [47][52]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal industry, specifically focusing on coking coal and thermal coal prices and market dynamics for 2025 [1][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Policies**: The government's regulation of coal prices aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and reduce disorderly competition through production control policies. Adjustments will be made based on coal price changes to prevent economic damage from price surges [1][3]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply and demand are expected to be tight, with inventory decreasing. By mid-year, market expectations are anticipated to reverse due to strong steel demand and a decline in domestic production and imports [1][4]. - **Price Recovery Expectations**: Coking coal and thermal coal prices are projected to return to or exceed early-year levels by the end of 2025, driven by ongoing supply constraints and demand recovery [1][5][6]. - **Market Sentiment**: Current market expectations for coal stocks are not fully reflected, with stock prices higher than 2020 levels despite poor earnings in the first half of 2025. This indicates that market pessimism is less severe than in previous downturns [1][8]. - **Investment Timing**: For long-term investors, this is considered a good time to buy coal stocks, particularly coking coal companies, which are less affected by price controls and show greater price elasticity compared to thermal coal [2][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Short-term Focus**: Investors should monitor upcoming mid-year reports and government policy adjustments, as poor earnings could impact stock market performance [1][7]. - **Valuation of Coking Coal Companies**: Coking coal companies are currently valued at historical lows, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio only about 20% away from historical minimums, making them more attractive compared to thermal coal companies [12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Specific coking coal companies to watch include Lu'an Huanneng, Shenhua Group, Huabei Mining, and Shanxi Coking Coal, all of which have strong potential for profitability and growth [11]. Market Trends and Predictions - **Market Cycles**: Historical patterns suggest that coal stocks do not immediately surge when coal prices rise; significant price increases typically follow clear improvements in earnings [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The current market cycle is expected to resemble previous cycles from 2016-2017 and 2020-2022, with a potential two-year upward trend in coal company profitability [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report highlights that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is positioned to benefit from the recent stabilization of coal prices and the potential for price increases, driven by supply constraints in the coal market. The company exhibits both defensive and offensive characteristics, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Current Market Conditions - The report notes that the coal price has rebounded, with the port price for thermal coal reaching 688 RMB/ton as of August 12, an increase of 67 RMB/ton (+11%) since early July. This price recovery is attributed to ongoing supply tightening in the coal market [6]. Investment Logic - The investment logic for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is based on several factors: 1. High proportion of spot sales allows the company to benefit significantly from price increases. 2. The company has a unique growth profile characterized by both organic growth and external acquisitions. 3. The significant discount of H-shares compared to A-shares enhances the investment value, particularly with a high dividend yield [2]. Sales and Profitability - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has a high proportion of spot sales, with 52% of its self-produced coal sales being thermal coal, most of which is not under long-term contracts. This results in a higher earnings elasticity compared to other major coal producers. A 100 RMB/ton increase in thermal coal prices could potentially increase the company's earnings by approximately 5.3 billion RMB, representing a 56% increase in expected earnings for 2025 [12][14]. Growth Strategy - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year within 5-10 years. In 2024, the company produced 142 million tons of commodity coal, with plans for significant capacity expansions through both internal projects and acquisitions. The expected increase in coal production capacity is projected to be around 49.8 million tons per year [12][14]. Dividend Policy - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% from 2023 to 2025, with a projected dividend yield of 5.7% for H-shares in 2025. This high dividend yield is a key attraction for investors [12][17]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.5 billion RMB in 2025, translating to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14.2x based on the closing price on August 12. The estimated dividend yield based on the 2024 payout ratio is 3.8% [12][25].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing increased regulatory scrutiny from the National Energy Administration aimed at stabilizing coal prices to support electricity prices and the overall economic environment [1][2][10] - The coal production in China is expected to see fluctuations due to regulatory measures and market dynamics, with a projected total annual output of 4.8 billion tons for 2025, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The National Energy Administration's intervention in the coal industry is a response to low coal prices and excessive production, indicating a shift towards stricter regulations to ensure price recovery [2][10] - The average long-term electricity price has been reduced by 0.02 yuan, while coal prices have dropped significantly by approximately 250 yuan, which could lead to further reductions in electricity prices in 2026 if the trend continues [2] - The coal production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is expected to decline in the latter half of 2025 due to the cancellation of freight subsidies and stricter regulatory oversight [1][5][6] - A specific case of Shanxi Coking Coal reducing working days from 320 to 276 days is noted, but this is not expected to become a widespread industry trend [3][4] Production and Demand Dynamics - National coal production reached a historical high of 440 million tons in late 2024 and early 2025, but has since seen a decline due to falling prices and regulatory measures [4][10] - The coal demand fluctuations are attributed to changes in electricity consumption patterns, with a notable increase in residential and tertiary sector electricity usage [11] - The impact of renewable energy development on thermal power demand is significant, with a negative growth rate observed in thermal power demand in early 2025 due to increased renewable installations [12][13] Future Outlook - The coal industry is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, with a projected monthly production decrease of about 20 million tons compared to June 2025, leading to a total of 240 million tons for the second half of the year [7][8] - The exit of the production guarantee policy is anticipated to have limited actual impact on coal production, as most unlicensed production capacity has already been phased out [8][9] - The market sentiment is shifting, with a recognition of the cyclical nature of the coal industry and potential for recovery as supply stabilizes and demand increases [10][13] Investment Opportunities - China Shenhua's recent acquisition plan reflects positive market sentiment towards state-owned enterprise reforms and is expected to enhance profitability as the industry recovers [2][16] - Recommended coal companies include Jinko, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal, Shenhua, and Yanzhou Coal, with specific recommendations for coking coal companies like Pingmei, Huaiyin, Lu'an, and Shanxi Coking Coal [17]