智通财经APP获悉，东方财富证券发布研报称，25年1-9月煤炭产量同比+2%，7月能源局108号文件发 布以来煤炭产量明显下降，7/8/9月全国煤炭产量分别同比-3.8%/-3.2%/-1.8%，其中尤其是山西、新疆地 区产量环比减量明显。进口端上，继2024年进口量创下历史新高之后，25年进口量有所减量，25年1-9 月累计进口3.46亿吨，同比-11.1%。在"反内卷"政策逻辑不断演绎及国家能源局核查产能文件出台后， 煤炭价格底部进一步夯实，叠加煤矿新增产能或增长有限，预计板块将进入中长期震荡向上的大周期。 东方财富证券主要观点如下： 4)建材：25年建材需求仍然受到地产拖累，呈现同比下滑，但降幅有所收窄。根据sxcoal的估计，25年 1-9月建材用煤量1.86亿吨，同比-4.6%，较24年1-9月的降幅9.1%明显收窄。 煤炭"反内卷"对中下游行业全面"反内卷"体系至关重要，有望加速行业震荡向上的拐点到来 2024年7月30日中央政治局会议首次提出"依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理"，2025 年7月10日发布的国家能源局108号文为煤炭"反内卷"的核心文件，本轮煤炭行业"反内卷"的核心 ...

2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业研究/行业快报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 领先大市-A(维持) 10 月：火电增速逆势向上，煤价上涨超预期 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解-25 年 9 月 国 内 煤 价 上 涨 带 动 进 口 量 提 升 2025.10.23 【山证煤炭】2025 年三季度煤炭债复盘- 平均期限继续创新高，平煤神马重组利 好存量债项 2025.10.22 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 10 月： 供给：1-10 月原煤供给边际递减。2025 年 1-10 月，原煤累计产量实现 39.73 亿吨，同比增 1.5%，同比增速边际下滑。10 月当月实现 4.07 亿吨，同 比降 2.3%，环比降 1.16%。 首选股票 评级 需求：1-10 月终端需求维持回落趋势，火电需求逆势向上。25 年 1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7%，其中制造业投资增 2.7%、基建投资降 0.1%、 房地产投资降 14.7%。25 年 1-10 月火电累计增速实现-0.4%；焦炭累计增速 ...

港口动力煤突破830元/吨，再次刷新年内新高。 尽管港口动力煤价格在创新高，但是涨幅却在收窄。由于短期内煤价涨幅过快，贸易商恐高心理增强，市场情 绪明显降温，分歧开始加大。 业内人士认为，"反内卷"等供给侧调整政策，仍将是推动行业供需再平衡的关键变量。 动力煤价格突破830元/吨 中国煤炭市场网数据显示，截至11月14日，"CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价"5500K、5000K、4500K三个规格 品分别收于831元/吨、736元/吨、641元/吨，比年初上涨62元/吨、65元/吨、69元/吨，再次刷新年内新高。 值得注意的是，尽管港口动力煤价格在创新高，但是涨幅却在收窄。由于短期内煤价涨幅过快，下游抵触心 理、中间贸易商恐高心理增强，市场情绪明显降温，港口海运费已经出现回调。有统计显示，11月13日，秦皇 岛到广州6万—7万吨船运费为52.8元/吨，环比前一日下降1.9元/吨；秦皇岛到上海4万—5万吨船运费为46.1元/ 吨，环比前一日下降2.7元/吨。 目前贸易商对后市看法存在分歧，部分贸易商对后市预期保持乐观，认为这次止涨同10月底那次一样，歇几天 后还会继续上涨；也有贸易商认为，港口上获利盘已经开始松 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to undergo a "reverse involution" process in two stages, focusing on reasonable price operation and supply-side reform, driven by energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality policies [3][10][14] - The price of thermal coal is projected to experience four target stages, with coking coal prices expected to recover in relation to thermal coal [4][20] - The dual attributes of coal as both a cyclical and dividend stock make it a preferred asset for market allocation, with specific stocks identified for investment based on cyclical logic, dividend potential, diversification, and growth [5][9] Industry Innovation - The first stage of the reverse involution involves production reduction to stabilize coal prices, utilizing measures such as production checks and environmental regulations [10][14] - The second stage focuses on capacity reduction and structural adjustment to solidify the results of the first stage, enhancing the quality and concentration of production capacity [14][17] Price Judgement - The recovery of thermal coal prices is expected to follow a path that includes restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving a profit-sharing line for coal and power enterprises, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][20] - The target prices for coking coal are linked to the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with specific price targets set for different recovery stages [4][20] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by both cyclical and dividend attributes, making it a valuable asset in the current economic context [5][9] - Four main investment lines are identified: cyclical logic (e.g., Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源), dividend logic (e.g., 中国神华, 中煤能源), diversification (e.g., 神火股份, 电投能源), and growth logic (e.g., 新集能源, 广汇能源) [5][9] Domestic Supply - New coal production capacity is limited, with a significant focus on maintaining existing mines and enhancing operational efficiency rather than expanding capacity [26][27] - The coal production in Xinjiang is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that it may surpass that of Shaanxi by 2025 [27][32] Domestic Demand - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise due to economic recovery and seasonal peaks, with power plants maintaining high consumption levels [53][55] - Non-electric coal demand is expected to benefit from policies supporting coal chemical projects, with significant increases in coal consumption anticipated in the chemical, construction, and metallurgy sectors [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that coal prices are nearing a short-term peak, with a slight decline expected as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited. The coal production in China has shown a continuous year-on-year decline from July to September, influenced by the government's intervention in the coal sector [1]. Supply Side - The coal production in China for July, August, and September was 380 million, 390 million, and 410 million tons respectively, showing a year-on-year decline. For Q4, production is expected to slightly decrease due to "overproduction checks," maintaining a monthly output of 390-400 million tons from October to December, with an annual production estimate of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30-50 million tons year-on-year [1]. Demand Side - The total electricity consumption in society from August to September has increased to 4.6%, a significant rise from the 2.5% growth in Q1. The annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%. Despite entering the typical demand off-season in September and October, demand has shown unexpected strength, with daily consumption in East China reaching the highest level in the past five years [2]. Thermal Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port in Northern China was 778 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week. Domestic supply is stable while imports continue to decline. The overall supply is expected to maintain a steady decline, while demand has significantly improved, leading to a potential rebound in Q3 profitability [3]. Coking Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the off-season [4]. Industry Review - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton (0.0%), while the price of port-level coking coal was 1718 yuan/ton (3.3%). The total inventory of coking coal across three ports was 2.837 million tons (5.4%), with a utilization rate of 73.44% for coking enterprises with inventories over 200,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle Port in Australia increased by 1 USD/ton (2.0%), while the cost of domestic Q5500 coal was 15 yuan/ton higher than that of imported coal [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing strong demand resilience due to the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to higher-than-expected coal prices. The coal sector's supply-demand dynamics are improving, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The probability of a cold winter is increasing due to the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to persist from December 2025 to February 2026, potentially leading to lower temperatures in China's central and eastern regions [2]. - The current weather conditions, characterized by high temperatures in the south and sudden drops in temperature in the north, are significantly driving up coal consumption [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The coal supply is being constrained by government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, with national coal production in July and August at 380 million and 390 million tons, respectively, which is below the average monthly production of approximately 400 million tons over the past year and a half [2]. - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with expectations of a slight decline in production in Q4 due to ongoing checks for overproduction [2][3]. - The central government's environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are causing disruptions in open-pit mining operations, further impacting coal production [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints and rising winter demand, with both thermal and coking coal prices having upward elasticity [4]. - Current prices for thermal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for potential rebounds, supported by the supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has seen significant growth, exceeding 13 billion yuan, and offers a high dividend yield of over 5.3% as of September 30, making it an attractive investment option [5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on the investment opportunities within the coal sector [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the resilience of coal demand during the peak season, driven by the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to unexpected increases in coal prices [1] - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port reached 780 RMB/ton, reflecting a 22 RMB/ton increase from the previous week [1] - The NOAA predicts that the La Niña phenomenon may persist from December 2025 to February 2026, increasing the likelihood of colder winters in central and eastern China, which is expected to boost coal consumption [1] Group 2 - The coal supply is contracting significantly due to government interventions aimed at reducing overproduction, with national coal output in July and August at 3.8 billion tons and 3.9 billion tons, respectively, below the average monthly output of approximately 4 billion tons over the past 18 months [2] - In August, the industrial raw coal output was 3.9 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the output is expected to remain between 3.9 billion to 4 billion tons per month from September to December, with an annual output forecast of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30 to 50 million tons year-on-year [2] - Coal imports have also declined, with shipments to China in the first two weeks of October 2025 at 9.85 million tons, a 14.4% decrease from September and a 43.7% drop compared to the same period last year [2] - The coal market is expected to remain strong due to sustained demand in winter and ongoing supply disruptions, with the coal ETF (515220) attracting significant inflows, totaling over 1 billion RMB in the last 10 days [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Energy is a leading coal company in North China, with significant coal bases in Shandong, Shaanxi, Mongolia, and Australia, and is the only major coal enterprise in China with substantial overseas resources [1] Group 1: Capacity Growth - The company plans to increase coal production capacity to 300 million tons per year by 2030, as outlined in its development strategy [1] - Capacity growth will primarily be achieved through asset injections and the construction of new mines, with asset injections being the largest contributor [1][2] Group 2: Recent Acquisitions - As of September 30, 2023, the company acquired 51% stakes in both Luxi Mining and Xinjiang Energy Chemical, with plans to acquire 51% of Northwest Mining by July 2025 [2] - By September 2025, the company is expected to have a total coal production capacity of 340 million tons, with 280 million tons currently in production and 63 million tons under construction [2] Group 3: Upcoming Production Contributions - The Wanfeng Coal Mine is set to contribute 1.8 million tons of coking coal by December 2024, and the first phase of the Yancoal Qicaiwan No. 4 Coal Mine will add 10 million tons of thermal coal by July 2025 [2] - Additional mines under construction include Liu Sangadan (10 million tons), Galutu (8 million tons), and Hohhot No. 1 (7 million tons), among others [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The National Energy Administration's directive to halt overproduction in coal mines is expected to stabilize coal prices, with 30% of inspected mines in Inner Mongolia exceeding production limits [3] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, committing to a payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2023 to 2025, with a projected dividend of 0.18 yuan per share in 2025 [3] - The company's current low PE valuation in the Hong Kong market, combined with a high dividend yield, presents an attractive investment opportunity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic restructuring of Henan Energy and China Pingmei Shenma Group, as announced by five listed companies including Pingmei Shares, marks a significant breakthrough in state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform within the coal and electricity sector, potentially igniting a new wave of SOE reform in A-shares [1][2]. Group 1: SOE Reform and Investment Opportunities - The recent announcement of strategic restructuring by the Henan provincial government is expected to create investment opportunities, likely leading to a sector-wide effect [2]. - The acquisition plan by China Shenhua, involving assets worth hundreds of billions, reflects a top-down approach from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to the group and listed companies [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In August, the total electricity consumption in society grew by 4.6%, a significant increase from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating a recovery in demand that contradicts previous market pessimism [3]. - The production of raw coal in large-scale industries in August was 39 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the national coal production in July and August was 38 million and 39 million tons respectively, which is notably lower than the average monthly production of approximately 40 million tons over the past 18 months [3]. - For the second half of the year, coal production is expected to slightly decline due to "overproduction checks," with total production projected to be between 235-240 million tons, maintaining an annual total of 475-480 million tons, which is roughly flat year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Coal Prices and Market Trends - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 713 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous week, with expectations of a rebound in Q3 profitability due to improved demand from June to August [4]. - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1710 RMB/ton, showing a 6.2% increase, indicating a rebound in both futures and spot markets [5]. - The average daily iron and steel production slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to show a clear upward trend due to structural supply issues and seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" policy promoting production discipline [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, especially as prices stabilize and begin to rise in response to seasonal demand and supply constraints [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Operational Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of production discipline and the impact of government policies on coal supply, which are expected to tighten supply further [7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is anticipated to support non-electric coal demand, with winter stockpiling expected to boost thermal coal demand [7][8]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at the port is 707 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2 RMB/ton [8]. - The report notes that the price of coking coal at the port has increased by 80 RMB/ton, indicating a strong demand in the steel sector [8]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.651 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [8]. - The report indicates that coal inventories at northern ports are at a phase of low levels, which may lead to further price increases if not replenished effectively [7][8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The average daily iron water output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4236 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.56% [8]. - The report highlights the correlation between coal prices and downstream demand from the steel industry, which is expected to remain strong [8]. 5. Recent Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report suggests focusing on high-elasticity stocks such as Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控煤业, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [7][8].