CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 3 月 20 日 长和 1 HK 香港综合性企业行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 稳舵前行 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 3 月 19 日发布的题为《Sailing through》 的报告，长江和记实业（长和）2025 年下半年经常性利润同比增长 3%至 110 亿港元，末期股息同比增 6%至每股 1.602 港元，较市场一致预期高出 3%。分析指出，集团逐步退出电信业务及港口处置交易有望完成，投资逻辑维持 不变。多元化的资产组合及汇率利好将继续支撑集团盈利。 下半年盈利超预期 末期股息符合预测 长和 2025 年下半年经常性利润同比增长 3%至 110 亿港元。增长动力来自港口、零售及电信业务，英镑与欧元升值 亦提供支撑。末期股息同比增 6%至每股 1.602 港元，较市场一致预期高出 3%，全年派息比率稳定于基础盈利的 40%。截至 2025 年底，合并净负债权益比率环比下降 1.1 个百分点至 17.1%，资产负债表保持稳健。 ...

长和：全年港口及相关服务收入489.0亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen International (00152) reported a slight increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to the absence of one-time gains from previous logistics projects [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 490 million, a decrease of 24.9% compared to the previous year [1]. - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.2 [1]. Logistics Business - The logistics segment generated revenue of approximately HKD 987 million, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year due to the operational contributions from several logistics port projects [1]. - The absence of income from the "investment, construction, and management" model led to a 98% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders in this segment, amounting to approximately HKD 7.93 million [1][2]. Project Development - The company has been focusing on strengthening its logistics core business with a prudent investment strategy, emphasizing high operational efficiency and strong risk resilience [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company managed and operated 53 logistics port projects across 41 cities, with a total operational area of approximately 6.71 million square meters and an occupancy rate of about 87% for mature logistics parks [2]. Port and Related Services - Revenue from port and related services decreased by 13% year-on-year to approximately HKD 1.39 billion, attributed to reduced income from the port supply chain due to falling coal prices and overall market demand slowdown [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders in this segment fell by 72% to approximately HKD 12.04 million, impacted by increased depreciation and amortization costs from new project launches and intensified competition in the domestic port industry [3]. Toll Road and Environmental Business - The toll road and environmental business, managed by Shenzhen Expressway Group, reported total revenue of approximately HKD 4.22 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year [3]. - Net profit for Shenzhen Expressway increased by 21% year-on-year to approximately HKD 1.11 billion, benefiting from changes in the fair value of financial assets and significantly reduced financial costs [3]. - The company's share of profits from Shenzhen Expressway rose by 12% year-on-year to approximately HKD 484 million [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International [1][6] Core Views - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise with high-quality resources, focusing on logistics, toll roads, ports, and environmental protection, aiming to become a leading urban infrastructure developer and operator in China [5][17] - The company has developed a "big closed-loop" business model for logistics park transformation and a "small closed-loop" model for asset securitization, enhancing its earnings resilience [5][6] - The transformation of the South China logistics park is expected to contribute over HKD 15.658 billion in after-tax revenue [5] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy with a payout ratio of around 50% of net profit, making it an attractive high-dividend stock [5][37] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Shenzhen International are as follows: - 2023: HKD 20.524 billion - 2024: HKD 15.571 billion - 2025E: HKD 16.007 billion - 2026E: HKD 16.488 billion - 2027E: HKD 17.159 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2023: HKD 1.902 billion - 2024: HKD 2.872 billion - 2025E: HKD 3.081 billion - 2026E: HKD 3.430 billion - 2027E: HKD 3.925 billion [4][6] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates in four main sectors: toll roads and environmental protection, logistics, port services, and other investments [5][28] - The "big closed-loop" model focuses on land value appreciation through transformation and redevelopment, while the "small closed-loop" model involves asset securitization through public REITs or private funds [5][28] - The logistics and port business is the core of the company, with toll roads and environmental protection providing a stable revenue base [5][28] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Shenzhen International is the only state-owned enterprise in Shenzhen that is publicly listed and focuses on modern logistics, toll roads, ports, and environmental protection [5][17] - The company has a strong presence in key economic regions such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Zone [5][17] - The company has a competitive edge due to its strategic location and experience in land development and asset management [5][9] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 50% since 2017, with total dividends of HKD 15.593 billion from 2015 to 2024 [5][37] - Future dividends are expected to remain stable, supported by the logistics park transformation and asset securitization initiatives [5][37]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent shareholder meeting of Cheung Kong Holdings (长和) was the progress of the port transaction, with Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) being one of the potential investors [1] - The management, including Li Ka-shing, participated in the meeting via video, and there was a notable absence of in-depth commentary on business matters, reflecting uncertainty about future predictions due to unpredictable factors [1][4] - Li Ka-shing expressed concerns about the impact of changing tariff policies and geopolitical tensions on the global economy, making it difficult to forecast future trends [4] Group 2 - The company indicated that the decision to increase dividends in the future will depend on various factors, including performance and external economic conditions [4] - The port and related services segment is the smallest among Cheung Kong's business divisions in terms of revenue and EBITDA contribution [4] - The retail business is expected to see strong growth in Europe and Asia, with plans to increase store numbers and enhance the "O+O" (online and offline) service platform [4][5] Group 3 - Cheung Kong is actively cooperating with local authorities regarding the merger of its UK telecom subsidiary "Three UK" with Vodafone, with expectations to complete the process by the end of the year [5]