Group 1: Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD) surged to a three-week high against the US dollar (USD) at 0.6600, driven by strong consumer price index (CPI) data, which reduced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1][2] - The third quarter CPI in Australia rose by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to a 0.7% increase in the second quarter, and the year-on-year CPI climbed to 3.2%, up from 2.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The RBA's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that despite a surprising rise in unemployment, the labor market remains somewhat tight, leading investors to focus on upcoming inflation data for insights into future interest rate movements [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, the probability of a rate cut at the RBA's November meeting dropped significantly from 40% to 8%, and the December cut probability fell from 70% to 28%, with full pricing of a cut pushed to June next year [2] - The market is reacting to inflation risks, particularly in construction costs and service pressures, which have led to a reassessment of monetary policy expectations [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair indicates a bullish shift if it breaks above the descending channel, with immediate resistance at the psychological level of 0.6600 [3] - A breakthrough at 0.6600 could lead the AUD/USD to explore the 12-month high of 0.6707 reached on September 17 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of 0.6546 and the 9-day moving average of 0.6545; a drop below these levels could reignite bearish sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a decline against the US dollar (USD), currently trading below 0.6500 at 0.6495, with a decrease of 0.27% as traders assess the impact of a key mineral agreement between the US and Australia [1] - The agreement, signed by US President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese, supports "shovel-ready" projects worth $8.5 billion, aimed at expanding Australia's mining and processing capabilities [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year rise [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate failed to break the critical resistance level of 0.6535, suggesting a lack of new driving factors and potential for continued volatility in the short term [2] - Support levels are identified at 0.6440 and 0.6415, while resistance levels are at 0.6535 and 0.6630, indicating the need for investors to monitor future catalysts [2] - The currency pair is trading within a downward channel, with a bearish outlook reinforced by the 14-day RSI remaining below 50, suggesting further potential declines [2]