1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream enterprises in inland China has declined steadily, while that in Xinjiang has remained stable; large market fluctuations have driven the fluctuations of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The expected decline in the planting area in the new season and the acquisition cost support the lower price level, while the high raw material inventory of yarn mills and the high internal - external price difference limit the upside potential. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the near term, and attention should be paid to the capital and macro - economic aspects [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Cotton Production - As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Mato Grosso, the sowing of second - crop soybeans, cotton, and corn has accelerated after the first - crop soybean harvest. In Australia, the production is not expected to change significantly. The estimated cotton production this season is about 1 million tons (4.4 million bales), an 18% decrease from the previous season, consistent with the USDA's January supply - demand report [5] Domestic Cotton Inspection and Sales - As of January 28, the national lint inspection volume was 7.2127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. As of January 22, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 62.7%, a year - on - year increase of 24.1 percentage points and 28.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [6] US Cotton Export and Trade Agreement - As of the week ending January 22, the cumulative contracted exports of US cotton this year were 1.7722 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual forecasted total exports, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points, and 15 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. The cumulative shipments were 0.8522 million tons, accounting for 48% of the total contracted volume, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and 5 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years. In the week ending January 22, the weekly contracted volume of US upland cotton in 2025/26 was 46,200 tons, a 51% week - on - week decrease, mainly due to the decline in Vietnam's orders. The weekly export shipment volume was 1,015 tons, a 35% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the accelerated shipments in Southeast Asian countries. On January 27, India and the EU officially reached a trade agreement, which will eliminate the import tariffs on Indian textiles and clothing exported to the EU, with the highest tariff currently at 12%. This may enhance the price competitiveness of Indian textiles in the European market and lead to more direct competition for market share with China [7] Price Trends - From January 22 to January 29, 2026, the price of the ZCE cotton active contract increased from 14,730 yuan/ton to 14,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton, while the ICE active contract price decreased from 63.91 cents/pound to 63.46 cents/pound, a drop of 0.45 cents/pound [8] - The prices of imported cotton yarn at port pick - up points increased. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased from 21,480 yuan/ton to 21,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnam C32S increased from 21,480 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan/ton; and the price of Indonesian C32S increased from 21,080 yuan/ton to 21,100 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton [11] - The import prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M cotton decreased. The price of US EMOT M decreased from 74.10 cents/pound to 73.70 cents/pound, and the price of Brazilian M decreased from 71.30 cents/pound to 71.20 cents/pound [12] Inventory and Import and Export - As of the week ending January 22, the weekly contracted volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 46,200 tons, a 51% week - on - week decrease, a 17% decrease from the four - week average, and a 42% year - on - year decrease. Among them, Pakistan contracted 11,800 tons, and Vietnam contracted 10,300 tons [19] - As of January 28, the 2025/26 cotton inspection volume was 7.213 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86% [33] - As of this Thursday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 11,315, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 7 [54]