1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream enterprises in inland China has declined steadily, while that in Xinjiang has remained stable; large market fluctuations have driven the fluctuations of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The expected decline in the planting area in the new season and the acquisition cost support the lower price level, while the high raw material inventory of yarn mills and the high internal - external price difference limit the upside potential. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the near term, and attention should be paid to the capital and macro - economic aspects [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Cotton Production - As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Mato Grosso, the sowing of second - crop soybeans, cotton, and corn has accelerated after the first - crop soybean harvest. In Australia, the production is not expected to change significantly. The estimated cotton production this season is about 1 million tons (4.4 million bales), an 18% decrease from the previous season, consistent with the USDA's January supply - demand report [5] Domestic Cotton Inspection and Sales - As of January 28, the national lint inspection volume was 7.2127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. As of January 22, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 62.7%, a year - on - year increase of 24.1 percentage points and 28.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [6] US Cotton Export and Trade Agreement - As of the week ending January 22, the cumulative contracted exports of US cotton this year were 1.7722 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual forecasted total exports, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points, and 15 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. The cumulative shipments were 0.8522 million tons, accounting for 48% of the total contracted volume, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and 5 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years. In the week ending January 22, the weekly contracted volume of US upland cotton in 2025/26 was 46,200 tons, a 51% week - on - week decrease, mainly due to the decline in Vietnam's orders. The weekly export shipment volume was 1,015 tons, a 35% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the accelerated shipments in Southeast Asian countries. On January 27, India and the EU officially reached a trade agreement, which will eliminate the import tariffs on Indian textiles and clothing exported to the EU, with the highest tariff currently at 12%. This may enhance the price competitiveness of Indian textiles in the European market and lead to more direct competition for market share with China [7] Price Trends - From January 22 to January 29, 2026, the price of the ZCE cotton active contract increased from 14,730 yuan/ton to 14,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton, while the ICE active contract price decreased from 63.91 cents/pound to 63.46 cents/pound, a drop of 0.45 cents/pound [8] - The prices of imported cotton yarn at port pick - up points increased. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased from 21,480 yuan/ton to 21,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnam C32S increased from 21,480 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan/ton; and the price of Indonesian C32S increased from 21,080 yuan/ton to 21,100 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton [11] - The import prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M cotton decreased. The price of US EMOT M decreased from 74.10 cents/pound to 73.70 cents/pound, and the price of Brazilian M decreased from 71.30 cents/pound to 71.20 cents/pound [12] Inventory and Import and Export - As of the week ending January 22, the weekly contracted volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 46,200 tons, a 51% week - on - week decrease, a 17% decrease from the four - week average, and a 42% year - on - year decrease. Among them, Pakistan contracted 11,800 tons, and Vietnam contracted 10,300 tons [19] - As of January 28, the 2025/26 cotton inspection volume was 7.213 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86% [33] - As of this Thursday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 11,315, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 7 [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading mainline of coking coal and coke is unclear recently, with lackluster fundamentals and frequent disturbances from funds. The weight of fundamentals has decreased, and the influence of funds and sentiment is significant. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of coking coal is not high. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying approach, but not to be overly optimistic about the upside potential [3][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, the coking coal and coke futures showed wide - range oscillations with no obvious trend. Coking coal futures rose in the first ten - day period, declined in the middle ten - day period, and oscillated in the last ten - day period. The rise in January was mainly due to the downstream winter storage replenishment expectation. In the middle ten - day period, the resumption of high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply led to a lack of post - holiday expectations in the market, causing the futures price to decline first. Coke had no independent market and fluctuated following coking coal [2][9]. - In the spot market, the price of Mongolian coal was closely related to the futures, rising and falling in line with the futures. Shanxi coking coal prices were relatively lagging. They stopped falling and stabilized in the first ten - day period, and generally rose in the middle ten - day period, with mainstream coal types rising by 80 - 150 yuan/ton. However, in the last ten - day period, the coking coal in the producing areas showed signs of weakness [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Coal Production - In 2025, the national raw coal output of above - scale industries was 4.83 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The national coking clean coal output was 47.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, among which the coking clean coal output in Shanxi was 22.027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [39]. - In January, coking coal production slowly recovered. In February, coal mines gradually went on holiday. The average holiday days of sample coal mines were 10.1 days, similar to last year. State - owned coal mines had an average of 6.2 days of holiday, while private coal mines had an average of 13.96 days. After the Spring Festival, coal mines are expected to resume normal production, with relatively balanced supply and demand [40]. 3.2.2 Coal Imports - In 2025, China imported 118.63 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 3.24 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. The imports from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, the United States, and Australia accounted for 50.6%, 27.6%, 9.1%, 2.5%, and 7.5% respectively. The combined imports from Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% [51]. - In January, the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal quickly rebounded to a high level, with a significant year - on - year increase, which put great pressure on coking coal prices. During the Spring Festival, the Mongolian coal ports were closed. It is expected that the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal will remain at a high level after the Spring Festival [64]. 3.2.3 Coke Exports - In 2025, China's total coke exports were 7.941 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 377,000 tons, a decline of 4.5%. The main export destinations were Indonesia, India, Japan, Brazil, Vietnam, and Malaysia. India imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke from China and other countries. However, due to the already low base of China's coke exports to India, the marginal impact of the anti - dumping duties is limited. It is expected that coke exports in 2026 will remain basically the same [72][74][75]. 3.2.4 Coke Supply and Demand - In January, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises increased slightly, and the supply and demand of coke were in a tight balance. Due to the rise in coking coal prices in January and the relatively lagging coke prices, the first round of price increases had not been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises generally shrank [79]. 3.2.5 Steel Production and Demand - In January, the molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly and then oscillated, remaining at a relatively low level. The profitability of steel mills was poor. In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase slightly by 0.46%, and steel exports are expected to decline by about 3.8%, with the total demand for crude steel remaining basically the same [83]. 3.2.6 Winter Storage - As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage replenishment of coking coal is basically coming to an end. Downstream procurement has slowed down, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have a general intensity for winter storage replenishment. During the Spring Festival, coal mines are on holiday, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory [93]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Market Outlook: The trading mainline of coking coal and coke is unclear, with lackluster fundamentals. In February, coal mines go on holiday, spot trading becomes quiet, and prices tend to be stable. The weight of fundamentals decreases, and the influence of funds and sentiment increases. The current valuation of coking coal is not high, and attention should be paid to the switching of funds [113]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: The market is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying approach, but not to be overly optimistic about the upside potential [4][114]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4][114]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [4][115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With policies cooling the market's speculative sentiment, raising the proportion of margin trading funds, and Central Huijin selling a large amount of broad - based index ETFs, the stock index is in shock adjustment. The policy aims for a "slow - bull" market rather than suppressing it, and the short - term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited. Long - term bulls can choose the opportunity to layout [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - With the US postponing the tax on key minerals, the short - term concern about copper hoarding has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The aluminum price has fallen from a high level due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment. The domestic alumina market has strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure but is expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates in a range due to the stabilization of the cost center and the appearance of inventory pressure. The nickel supply is still tight despite the announced RKAB target in 2026, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Stainless steel futures have risen significantly, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills and the risk of short squeezes [1]. - The tin price has corrected due to the repeated macro sentiment, but there is still upward momentum due to the vulnerability of tin - ore supply. Precious metals are supported by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, but the silver price may be weaker than the gold price. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategies can be considered in the medium - to - long term [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have declined. For new - energy vehicles, it is the off - season, while the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a rush for exports. The rebar and iron - ore prices are under pressure, and the trading strategies are to leave the market for single - side long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - The soda - ash price is under pressure as it follows the glass market and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed. The coking - coal and coke prices are bearish, and the previous low - long strategy may need to be changed [1]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean oil is recommended to be over - allocated in the oil market, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future. The sugar market is in a global surplus, and the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - The corn price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the soybean price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The pulp price is recommended to be observed cautiously, and the log price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. The live - pig market has stable spot prices, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - The fuel - oil and asphalt prices are affected by multiple factors such as OPEC+ policies and geopolitical situations. The BR rubber price is in a phased correction, and the PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and styrene prices are affected by supply - demand and cost factors [1]. - The urea price has limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but is supported by anti - involution and cost. The PF price is under supply pressure and affected by geopolitical factors. The PVC price is expected to trade based on fundamentals, and the LPG price is supported by import - gas costs and has a changing inventory situation [1]. - The container - shipping price on the European route is expected to peak in mid - January, and there is still pre - holiday replenishment demand [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - Policy cools speculative sentiment, and the stock index is in shock adjustment. The short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can layout [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. Attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term concern about hoarding eases, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. - Aluminum: Falls from a high level due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Strong supply and weak demand, price under pressure, expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Fluctuates in a range due to cost and inventory factors [1]. - Nickel: Supply remains tight, price fluctuates at a high level in the short term, affected by sector resonance [1]. - Stainless Steel: Futures rise significantly, attention to production and short - squeeze risks [1]. - Tin: Corrects due to macro sentiment, but has upward momentum due to supply vulnerability [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Supported by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, silver may be weaker than gold [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fluctuate widely in the short term, long - platinum and short - palladium strategies can be considered in the medium - to - long term [1]. Industrial Silicon and New - Energy Vehicles - Industrial Silicon: Production changes in different regions, polysilicon and organic silicon production schedules decline [1]. - New - Energy Vehicles: Off - season, strong energy - storage demand, rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: Price under pressure, single - side long positions leave the market, participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron Ore: Upward pressure is obvious, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, price under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Bearish, previous low - long strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Recommended to be over - allocated [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Observe due to complex factors [1]. - Cotton: "Having support but no driver", attention to future policies and conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Pulp: Observe cautiously due to market fluctuations [1]. - Log: Expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live Pig: Spot prices are stable, production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies and geopolitical factors [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and profit [1]. - BR Rubber: In a phased correction, affected by supply - demand and cost [1]. - PTA: Market has a sharp rise, supported by fundamentals and demand [1]. - MEG: Rebounds due to supply - side news, demand exceeds expectations [1]. - Short - Fiber: Price follows cost closely [1]. - Styrene: Futures price rebounds due to improved fundamentals [1]. - Urea: Limited upward space, supported by anti - involution and cost [1]. - PF: Under supply pressure, affected by geopolitical factors [1]. - PVC: Expected to trade based on fundamentals, price under pressure [1]. - LPG: Supported by import - gas costs, inventory situation changes [1]. Container Shipping - European route price expected to peak in mid - January, pre - holiday replenishment demand exists [1].

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows that the US December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [3][18] - Domestic copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, which is a strong support factor for the market [4][19] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase due to tight copper concentrate supply [4][19] - The net import of refined copper in November decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [4][19] - As of January 16, global visible copper inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 1.037 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - Market sentiment is influenced by precious metals, with copper prices showing strength initially but concerns over domestic policy impacts and seasonal demand weakening consumption [5][20] - The overall market outlook for copper remains bullish with a recommendation to buy on dips, but caution against excessive buying is advised [6][20] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - January's refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is projected to decrease by 1% [7][21] - Demand in the new energy sector is weakening, with a decline in the production of ternary precursor materials and a drop in terminal sales of new energy vehicles [7][21] - LME nickel inventories increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons, indicating a slight build-up in stock [7][21] - Indonesia is adjusting its nickel quotas to support local prices, which may provide some price support in the short term, but overall market sentiment remains weak [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.2% week-on-week, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices also show declines [8][22] - The operating rate for alumina has increased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise, indicating a mixed supply outlook [8][22] - Downstream industries are preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to increased processing rates in some sectors, but overall demand recovery is limited [9][22] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum are rising, suggesting a potential oversupply situation in the near term [9][24] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures are showing a weak trend, with production decreasing week-on-week, while polysilicon prices are also under pressure [11][25] - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening due to reduced operating rates and closures in some regions, while demand remains subdued [11][25] - Inventory levels for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are increasing, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11][26] - The market is shifting focus from speculative trading to fundamental analysis, with expectations of limited price recovery in the short term [11][26] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with varying trends in different lithium sources [14][27] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is declining, with significant drops in both retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles [14][27] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons, but overall market sentiment remains pressured due to weak demand [14][28] - The market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to funding disturbances, with a recommendation to monitor inventory turnover and demand trends closely [14][28]

Group 1: Metals Gold - Trump's new tariffs and Fed rate cuts boost gold. Short - term, it's still bullish but may fluctuate during holidays [1] Silver - US economic data and Trump's tariffs increase Fed rate - cut uncertainty. Silver is short - term bullish with holiday risks [7] Iron Ore - Overseas shipments fall, arrival increases. Short - term price will fluctuate due to demand and capital factors [5] Rebar - Seasonal demand improves but inventory is high. Policy may support, so short - term price is under pressure [4] Copper (Not mentioned in the text) Aluminum (Not mentioned in the text) Group 2: Energy Crude Oil - Attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential sanctions support prices. Supply surplus remains. Suggest to wait and see [11] Natural Gas (Not mentioned in the text) Coal - Coke production drops slightly, but downstream procurement is active. Coal price will be stable before the holiday [5] Group 3: Chemicals Methanol - High domestic production, rising demand, and inventory decrease. Short - term, 01 contract may fluctuate weakly [2] Plastic - LLDPE price rises slightly, production drops, and inventory decreases. Demand improves. Short - term price will fluctuate [10] PVC (Not mentioned in the text) PTA (Not mentioned in the text) MEG (Not mentioned in the text) Styrene (Not mentioned in the text) Rubber - Supply may increase, downstream replenishment is mostly done. Short - term, price will fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - Supply increases, demand is affected by rain. Price will maintain a range - bound movement [13] Soda Ash - Supply is high, demand is average. 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term [9] Group 4: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - Affected by pre - holiday sentiment, it will mainly fluctuate strongly. Track import/export and inventory [6] Soybean - Domestic supply increases, demand is waiting for new grain. Short - term, it will be under pressure [6] Corn (Not mentioned in the text) Wheat (Not mentioned in the text) Sugar (Not mentioned in the text) Cotton (Not mentioned in the text) Live Pig - Supply exceeds demand, price is weak. Short - term, bounce space is limited [7] Group 5: Financial Products Treasury Bonds - Monetary policy is loose, real - estate policy may change. Long - term, it may be bearish for bonds [8] Stock Index Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Interest Rate Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Foreign Exchange Futures (Not mentioned in the text)