晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 1. 商务部部长王文涛与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈，就安世半导体等 经贸问题深入交换意见。双方一致同意，企业是解决安世半导体问题的主体，将共同敦促安世荷兰 与安世中国尽快开展建设性沟通，找到长期解决方案，尽快恢复全球半导体产供链的畅通与稳定。 双方还就中欧出口管制等问题交换了意见。 2. 万科遭遇股债"双杀"行情。周三，万科多只境内债券盘中大跌，"22 万科 02"一度跌超 35% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-25 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/19 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 受益于"双十一"促销前置，服装消费呈现企稳复苏态势。10月分，纺织品服装零售额达1471亿元， 同比增长6.3%，增速环比提升1.6个百分点，显著跑赢社会消费品零售总额增速。 新棉上市近半 核心观点 11月美农报告调增美国和中国产量预估，整体偏空；随着新棉加工量的增加，市场对新棉度棉花产量预 估有所上调；下游需求一般，产成品有累库迹象不过整体压力不大。籽棉收购进入尾声，新棉集中上市下供 给压力渐显，预计短期内郑棉或偏弱运行。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 11月美农偏空 11月美农未对美棉收获棉价进行调整，上调单产，最终使产量预估较9月份上调20万吨；上调中国棉花 产量预估22万吨；上调巴西棉花产量预估11万吨。最终，全球棉花产量预估较9月份上调52万吨，期末库存 预估较9月份上调60万吨，整体偏空。 纺服终端市场内外分化，国内消费表现良好 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国纺织品服装出口额为22.619亿美元，同比下降 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Options Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 5, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [7] Group 2: Underlying Asset Information Price and Daily Fluctuation - Furnace Aluminum: Price at 21,465, down 0.07%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.97% [5] - Shanghai Copper: Price at 85,740, down 1.54%, with a daily fluctuation of 36.69% [5] - Shanghai Zinc: Price at 22,670, up 0.82%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.35% [5] - Shanghai Gold: Price at 915.58, down 0.50%, with a daily fluctuation of 24.17% [5] - Rubber: Price at 14,875, down 1.42%, with a daily fluctuation of 33.50% [5] - Sugar: Price at 5,481, up 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.94% [5] - Corn: Price at 2,135, down 0.05%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.75% [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Price at 2,497, up 1.55%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.98% [5] - Soybean Meal: Price at 3,015, down 0.69%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.59% [5] - Palm Oil: Price at 8,616, down 0.85%, with a daily fluctuation of 26.06% [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Price at 13,535, down 0.40%, with a daily fluctuation of 12.45% [5] - Polypropylene: Price at 6,560, down 0.65%, with a daily fluctuation of 11.00% [5] - LPG: Price at 4,243, down 1.44%, with a daily fluctuation of 27.20% [5] - PTA: Price at 4,604, down 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.21% [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Price at 3,901, down 2.48%, with a daily fluctuation of 29.18% [5] - Styrene: Price at 6,354, down 1.99%, with a daily fluctuation of 34.17% [5] - Urea: Price at 1,630, up 0.80%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.79% [5] - Apple: Price at 8,861, down 2.63%, with a daily fluctuation of 54.89% [5] - Manganese Silicon: Price at 5,754, down 0.72%, with a daily fluctuation of 13.37% [5] - Soda Ash: Price at 1,189, down 1.74%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.59% [5] - Short Fiber: Price at 6,190, down 0.26%, with a daily fluctuation of 15.07% [5] - Ferrosilicon: Price at 5,510, down 0.29%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.25% [5] - Lithium Carbonate: Price at 78,560, down 4.34%, with a daily fluctuation of 109.72% [5] - Synthetic Rubber: Price at 10,205, down 2.30%, with a daily fluctuation of 31.45% [5] - p-Xylene: Price at 6,660, down 0.03%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.38% [5] - Glass: Price at 1,105, up 0.18%, with a daily fluctuation of 39.71% [5] - Propylene: Price at 6,026, down 1.16%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.10% [5] - Polysilicon: Price at 53,715, down 3.91%, with a daily fluctuation of 75.10% [6] Historical Volatility - The report provides historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) for various underlying assets such as furnace aluminum, Shanghai copper, etc [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility 主力平值IV - Implied volatility data for various underlying assets including polysilicon (e.g., 31%, 50%), propylene (e.g., 13%, 16%), etc [10] 主力平值IV分位值 - The report presents the percentile values of the implied volatility of the underlying assets such as 82%, 63%, etc [13] Group 4: Historical Trends - The report shows historical trends of the closing price, implied volatility, and HV60 for some underlying assets like industrial silicon, iron ore, soybean oil, etc [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided in the content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Historical Volatility - This section presents the historical volatility data of various commodity options, including the main contract price, price change, daily volatility, and historical volatility for different time - periods (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) of multiple commodities such as metals (e.g.,沪铝,沪铜,沪锌), energy (e.g.,原油), agricultural products (e.g.,白糖,玉米), and chemical products (e.g., PVC,甲醇). For example,沪铝's main contract price is 21360 with a 0.61% increase, and its daily volatility is 19.32%, HV20 is 9%, HV40 is 8%, HV60 is 7%, and HV120 is 9% [5]. Implied Volatility - It shows the implied volatility of the main contract at - the - money options (主力平值IV) for different commodities like多晶硅,丙烯,尿素, etc. For instance, the主力平值IV of多晶硅 is 33% and 61% [8]. - There are also historical trend charts for some commodities such as工业硅,铁矿,豆油,菜油,原油, and橡胶, which display the relationship between the main contract closing price, main contract at - the - money implied volatility, and HV60 over time [10][11]. Main Contract At - the - Money IV Quantile - Information about the main contract at - the - money IV quantile value is presented, but the specific data is incomplete as only "120%" is given without clear context [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents per pound or 0.17% from the previous week. The price of Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton or 1.54% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose to 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis weakened slightly, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened slightly [9]. - Due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. On October 23, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.28 yuan per kilogram, up 0.11 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared to the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [9]. - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year was weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season in China, leading to significant selling hedging pressure. Although the purchase price of new cotton has increased slightly recently, driving the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, down 0.17%. The spread between US cotton December - March contracts was - 1.53 cents per pound, down 0.03 cents per pound. Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton. The basis weakened slightly to 1263 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened to 0 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Industry Information**: USDA data suspension due to the US government shutdown. Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton purchase index rose to 6.28 yuan per kilogram. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, showing no change from the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Weak demand during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and expected bumper harvests with high selling hedging pressure. The recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term upward price space is limited [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton spreads, and other international spread trends, but no specific text analysis is provided [24]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: It shows the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [39]. - **Cotton Imports**: Displays monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [41]. - **US Exports to China**: Presents the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Shows monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: Displays the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Shows the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory [53]. - **Spinning Mill Inventory**: Displays the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Includes the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - quality rate, double - weekly and cumulative processing volumes, production and planting area estimates, export contract progress, export shipment volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [58][60][62]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Covers the planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [71][74]. - **Indian Situation**: Involves the planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][82].

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengzhou Cotton: Rising Cost of Cotton Lint [1][40] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] - Qualification Number: F0272777 [3] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0010085 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Trump's continuous signals have led the market to have positive expectations for China-US trade relations; as the domestic cotton harvest progresses, the market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward compared to the previous period, and the purchase price of seed cotton has steadily increased. Recently, both domestic and international cotton prices have rebounded, with Zhengzhou cotton showing stronger rebound momentum than US cotton. Although downstream demand remains lackluster, the rising price of seed cotton has increased the cost of cotton lint, and the hedging pressure range has shifted upward. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, but due to the expected high yield and average downstream demand, the upward space is currently limited [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Expectations and Production Estimates - Trump's signals have created positive expectations for China-US trade relations, which may boost cotton prices if favorable. The market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward due to concerns about the impact of rainfall and cooling in Xinjiang on cotton yield and quality [4][5]. - As of October 16, the national cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of machine-picked seed cotton has been rising steadily. As of the previous day, the purchase price index of machine-picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week; in northern Xinjiang, it was 6.21 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [5]. - As of October 21, the cumulative inspection of cotton lint in the 2025 cotton year nationwide was 97.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%, with Xinjiang accounting for 96.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [5][6]. Import and Inventory - In September, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 22,300 tons but a month-on-month increase of 22,300 tons. From January to September this year, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 million tons, a decline of 69.9%. In September, the import volume of cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and flat month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons, a decline of 7.7%. In terms of import proportion, Australian cotton had the highest import volume in September, and Vietnamese cotton yarn had the highest import volume [7]. - As of the end of September, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 660,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, it was 1.72 million tons, only slightly higher than at the end of September last year [7]. Price Trends - From October 15 to October 22, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,270 yuan/ton to 13,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton, while the price of the active contract of US cotton decreased from 63.83 cents/pound to 63.65 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.18 cents/pound [8]. - From October 14 to October 21, the Cotlook A price index rose from 74.95 cents/pound to 75.6 cents/pound, an increase of 0.65 cents/pound. From October 13 to October 20, the price of Indian S-6 cotton decreased from 54,200 rupees/candy to 52,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 1,300 rupees/candy [10]. - From October 15 to October 22, the port pick-up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - From October 15 to October 22, the arrival prices of imported cotton (1% tariff and sliding duty) from the US and Brazil increased to varying degrees [12]. Downstream Market - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of Keqiao Textile showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of raw materials (cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills) and finished products in the downstream market also showed different trends [37][39][42]. - The operating load of the downstream yarn and fabric industries also showed certain fluctuations [43][44]. Futures Market - As of Wednesday this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week. The price index of C32S cotton yarn increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week [46]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton price index under sliding duty and 1% tariff increased week-on-week. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick-up price increased week-on-week [48]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week-on-week, and the loss of the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn widened week-on-week [49]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2,851, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, short - term cotton prices may weaken again, but in the long - term, they can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar may rebound slightly following the foreign market, but in the long - term, it should be treated with a bearish mindset [5] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,465 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,552 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.311 million tons, imports 697,000 tons, consumption 5.338 million tons, and exports 306,000 tons, with the ending inventory remaining at 1.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, increasing market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, and the short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, starting the new year with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - In September 2025, China imported 151,400 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic supply is sufficient in the short term, but the new - season production increase may be less than expected, and the downside space is limited [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,156 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply, and domestic port inventories remain high [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices, and downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view can be extracted from the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Historical Volatility - For furnace aluminum, the main price is 20975, and the price of PVC increases by 0.48%. The historical volatilities HV20, HV40, HV60, and HV120 are 10.75%, 10%, 8%, and 18.26% respectively [5]. - For Shanghai zinc, the main price is 21940, and the price of plastic decreases by 0.25%. The historical volatilities are 14.99%, 0.30%, 16.54%, and 12% respectively [5]. - For other commodities such as copper, methanol, gold, etc., similar historical volatility and price change data are provided [5]. Implied Volatility - For polycrystalline silicon, the main flat - value IV is 39% and 69% [9]. - For propylene, the main flat - value IV is 17% and 5% [9]. - Similar implied volatility data are given for other commodities like urea, short - fiber, etc. [9]. Main Flat - Value IV Quantile No detailed data summary is provided in the given content for this part. Historical Trends - For industrial silicon and iron ore, historical trends of main closing price, main flat - value implied volatility, and HV60 are presented from 2024 - 10 to 2025 - 08 [12]. - Similar historical trend data are also shown for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, crude oil, and rubber [12].