1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report; it mainly offers various commodity and index-related data, including basis, spreads, and ratios 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from March 25 to March 31, 2026, shows values such as -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4, and -46.4 respectively; the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt have corresponding basis and ratio data from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; also includes spread data between different contract months and cross - product spread data [7] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [11] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided [21] 3.4.2 London Market - LME data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 31, 2026, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [27] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [34] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months are also included [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cotton futures market showed a volatile consolidation trend, with the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuating in the range of 15,200 - 15,450 yuan/ton. The core drivers are as follows: last week, cotton import quotas were issued, and the market was worried about policy regulation due to excessive and rapid rise in cotton prices before planting; the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises rebounded, demand improved marginally, and peak - season demand was gradually released; US cotton rebounded, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. In the short term, the market lacks a strong driver, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, it remains optimistic under the condition of a decline in planting area. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and new cotton planting [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Cotton Situation - As of March 17, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton - producing areas was 227, slightly down month - on - month and up 94 year - on - year; the index in Texas was 253, flat month - on - month and up 58 year - on - year. The drought level in the main US cotton - producing areas and Texas remains at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the latest weekly position report released by CFTC, as of the week of March 17, the volume of unpriced sell orders rose to 63,052 lots, while the unpriced buy orders decreased, indicating an increase in bullish sentiment in the international market. US cotton has risen significantly recently [5]. - As of the week of March 19, the weekly signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 45,900 tons, an increase month - on - month; the weekly shipment volume was 90,800 tons, a 46% increase month - on - month [21]. 3.2 Cotton Inventory and Consumption - As of mid - March 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.23 million tons, a decrease of 240,000 tons from the end of February and an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 3.88 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the end of February and a decrease of 130,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory reduction in Xinjiang is relatively fast [6]. - With the improvement of consumption, the operating rates of yarn mills and fabric mills have increased, and the inventories of finished products have decreased. As of Thursday this week, the operating loads of yarn mills and fabric mills were 58.1 and 60.8 respectively, having recovered above the levels of the same period last year; the inventories of finished products were 16.7 days and 23.6 days respectively, showing a significant decline after the Lantern Festival and currently at the lowest levels in recent years [6]. 3.3 Price and Spread - From March 19 to March 26, 2026, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 15,150 yuan/ton to 15,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton; the price of ICE active contract rose from 67.71 cents/pound to 69.44 cents/pound, an increase of 1.73 cents/pound [7]. - From March 18 to March 25, 2026, the CotlookA price index decreased from 79.35 cents/pound to 78.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents/pound; the price of Indian S - 6 increased from 55,800 rupees/candy to 56,100 rupees/candy, an increase of 300 rupees/candy [10]. - From March 19 to March 26, 2026, the port pick - up prices of imported yarns from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased. The price of Indian C32S increased by 60 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese C32S increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of Indonesian C32S increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - From March 20 to March 27, 2026, the import prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M cotton under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty both increased. The price of US EMOT M increased by 2.10 cents/pound, with an increase of 354 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 230 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty; the price of Brazilian M increased by 2.10 cents/pound, with an increase of 354 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 223 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty [12]. - As of last Friday, the basis between the 328 cotton spot price index and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton widened week - on - week; the basis between the C32S yarn price index and the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn also widened week - on - week [46][47]. - As of last Friday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty increased week - on - week; the price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price also increased week - on - week [50]. - As of last Friday, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week - on - week; the spot theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn showed an increased loss week - on - week [54]. 3.4 Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts - As of last Friday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,773 lots; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 300 lots [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, the 25/26 season saw a significant increase in cotton production, but consumption has also increased due to the expansion of downstream spinning capacity. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and commercial inventories are being depleted quickly. With the expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season, the medium- to long-term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [2]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is affected by the US-Iran conflict, and the new sugar season in Brazil may see a lower sugar production ratio, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. In China, the sugar cane harvest has been significantly delayed, with higher-than-expected production and high industrial inventories. The import volume of sugar from January to February has also increased significantly [5]. - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026 as overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. In China, although there has been a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation in recent years, terminal demand has been insufficient, leading to high port inventories. However, the overall demand for pulp is expected to improve compared to last year [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,340 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,573 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1233, down 142 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,711 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1371, down 146 from the previous day [1]. - Market Information: The cotton price in Pakistan has risen significantly due to the Middle East tension. The market trading was light during the Eid al-Fitr holiday. The Middle East tension has led to shipping delays and increased import costs, squeezing the profit margins of textile enterprises [1]. Market Analysis - International: The global supply-demand pattern is still relatively loose this year, but it is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. The Northern Hemisphere is entering the key planting period, with uncertainties in planting area reduction and weather in major producing areas. The outlook for US cotton is still bullish [2]. - Domestic: China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and consumption has also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and commercial inventories are being depleted quickly. With the expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season, the medium- to long-term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The short-term upside space may be limited by the domestic and international price difference, and the issuance of additional quotas by the policy may also put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the target price policy and the reduction in planting area in the new season, as well as the possibility of state reserve sales if the cotton price rises to a high level [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,429 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 31, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 109, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Market Information: The sugar industry in Maharashtra, India has called on the government to intervene to address financial pressure, including raising the minimum support price, increasing the ethanol production limit, and providing subsidies. The sugar cane production in the state has decreased by about 15% this year due to bad weather, and the crushing period has been shortened [4]. Market Analysis - International: The US-Iran conflict has led to expectations of high energy prices, and the new sugar season in Brazil may see a lower sugar production ratio, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. The short-term external market is expected to be significantly affected by the international situation, but the sufficient supply in the industry will also limit the upside [5]. - Domestic: The sugar cane harvest has been significantly delayed, with higher-than-expected production and high industrial inventories. The import volume of sugar from January to February has also increased significantly [5]. Strategy - Neutral. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar futures has weakened, but it is also difficult to fall sharply due to the Middle East situation. It is recommended to adopt a sideways trading strategy in the short term [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day [6]. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,235 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 11, down 14 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) in Shandong was 4,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 364, down 14 from the previous day [6]. - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with slight declines in some cases. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a narrow range, and most traders were reluctant to adjust their quotes. The price of some grades in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong markets dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The import broadleaf pulp market was stable, with downstream buyers purchasing on a need-to basis. The import natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp markets showed no obvious improvement, with the price of natural pulp in the Guangdong market dropping by 50 yuan/ton and the price of chemical mechanical pulp remaining stable [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026 as overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. Attention should be paid to whether the consumption in Europe and the United States can improve first, which would increase the proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe and the United States and relieve the pressure on China's imports [7]. - Demand: Although there has been a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation in China in recent years, terminal demand has been insufficient, leading to high port inventories. However, the overall demand for pulp is expected to improve compared to last year as the paper production capacity continues to expand in 2026 [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and port inventories are still high. The pulp price is expected to remain range-bound at a low level in the short term [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trend judgments on various futures based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and analyzes the market conditions and trends of multiple industries such as macro finance, black, non - ferrous and new materials, agriculture, and energy chemicals, offering corresponding trading strategies [2][4]. - The geopolitical situation, especially the US - Iran conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply, demand, and price trends of various commodities [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Trend Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Trend空头 includes manganese silicon; Oscillatory and bearish includes eggs, ferrosilicon, polysilicon, red dates, plastics, PVC; Oscillatory includes lithium carbonate, cotton yarn, five - year Treasury bonds, ten - year Treasury bonds, two - year Treasury bonds, thirty - year Treasury bonds, cotton, sugar, pulp, logs, urea, iron ore, caustic soda, hot - rolled coil, rebar, copper, ethylene glycol, PTA, industrial silicon, bottle chips, p - xylene, short - fiber, live pigs, coke, methanol, coking coal, glass, soda ash, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, zinc; Oscillatory and bullish includes 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, Shanghai Composite 50 stock index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, fuel oil, asphalt [2]. - **Based on Quantitative Indicators**: Bearish includes coke, coking coal, corn starch, hot - rolled coil, rebar, PVC, soybean No.1; Oscillatory includes Zhengzhou cotton, Shanghai gold, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, Shanghai aluminum, soybean No.2, eggs, asphalt, PTA, plastics, sugar, polypropylene, glass, soybean meal, manganese silicon, methanol, rapeseed meal, palm oil, iron ore; Bullish includes rubber, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, corn, Shanghai silver, Shanghai lead, Shanghai zinc [4]. 2. Macro Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider a long - position strategy and pay attention to trading volume. The current position has a certain odds, and short - term winning probability may increase [11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market gradually has odds, and consider a left - side long - position strategy. The yield of bonds over 10 years has odds, but the odds are not thick enough. Keep a steep yield curve thinking, and the yield of bonds under 10 years still has room to decline [12]. 3. Black - **Steel**: The overall short - term trend is oscillatory. The demand for building materials is weak, and the inventory of coils and strips is high, suppressing steel prices. The cost side has strong support, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a double - strong pattern. Suggest holding the short - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and then shorting on rallies later [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The prices are affected by the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the procurement willingness of coking enterprises has recovered. If the emotional premium fades, the price may fall back [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The supply of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is weakening. Although the prices are affected by energy emotions, the fundamental contradictions are accumulating [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply has slightly declined due to short - term maintenance, and the supply stability of leading enterprises needs attention. Glass supply has both cold - repair and ignition expectations, and the mid - stream inventory needs to be digested [19]. 4. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: The short - term price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation shows signs of easing but remains uncertain. The downstream consumption is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. It is still advisable to adopt an oscillatory and bearish strategy with small price rebounds [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is affected by mine - end disturbances and macro - emotions. If the export of lithium ore from Zimbabwe is still prohibited, it may drive up the price; otherwise, it may cause a short - term supply shock [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon oscillates, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after a rebound. Polysilicon oscillates weakly, and the liquidity is insufficient, so operate with caution [25][26]. 5. Agriculture - **Cotton**: The price oscillates at a high level. The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The global cotton production is expected to decline, and the domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage. The import pressure restricts the price, but the decrease in the expected planting area is beneficial to the price in the long term [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates and rebounds. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, but the import cost supports the price [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The recent consumption recovery supports the price, but the supply pressure is large. The spot price may have limited upside, and the futures price of the near - month contract has upward pressure [32][33]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples may be strong, and the futures price may be strong. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival boosts the price [34][35]. - **Red Dates**: The current view is oscillatory and bearish. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the consumption is difficult to grow significantly without external positive factors [36]. - **Live Pigs**: It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, but the live - pig inventory is expected to decrease, and the factors for the price to stabilize and rebound are accumulating [37]. 6. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the situation is still variable. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, the oil price will return to fundamental trading; otherwise, it may rise. The US - Iran conflict is likely to cool down [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The focus is on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [40]. - **Plastics**: The price is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cut is expanding, and the future price depends on the resolution of the war [41]. - **Rubber**: The domestic Yunnan production area has started tapping, and the price is oscillatory and strong in the short term. It is advisable to hold the strategy of narrowing the spread between RU and NR and pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options after full - scale tapping [42]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is driven by the cost side and may have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to energy prices and device changes [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price is affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty. It is not advisable to be overly bearish [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is advisable to adopt an intraday wide - range oscillatory strategy. The price is affected by coal prices, supply - side production cuts, and export volume increases, as well as futures premium and inventory accumulation [45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the profit has rebounded [47][48]. - **PVC**: The price may have a callback risk. The core factor is whether the upstream ethylene production cut can continue and expand. If the oil transportation problem is solved, the price may fall rapidly [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions. The cost side is weakening, but the supply contraction provides support. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact, device maintenance progress, and the recovery of polyester demand [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the situation is still variable. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, it will return to fundamental trading. It is expected to continue to weaken, but the price may be stronger than that of crude oil [51]. 7. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Pay attention to the impact of the macro and commodity emotions. The import is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The high inventory and weak demand are in a game with the cost and energy - related production cuts of overseas pulp mills. It is advisable to go long on dips if the market improves [53]. - **Logs**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity emotions. The procurement enthusiasm of processing plants is low, and the fundamentals may stabilize if the demand recovers [54]. - **Urea**: The far - month contract pays attention to cost - driven and agricultural product price increases, and the near - month contract follows the policy. The current supply - demand is balanced, and the impact of the state reserve release needs to be observed [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Since March, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant increases and large fluctuations in energy and chemical products such as crude oil and shipping. Against this backdrop, combined with capital and the strong fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton, the cotton price has experienced increased intraday fluctuations but generally shown a strong upward trend. The main contract reached a new stage high of 15,725 yuan/ton this week. In the medium to long term, the cotton planting area is expected to decline in 2026, and the supply-demand situation will improve, so there is still room for cotton prices to rise. The extent of the increase depends on the new cotton planting area [3]. - The USDA report is slightly bearish. Globally, mainly due to the increase in production in Brazil and China, the global cotton production forecast has been raised by over 1.13 million bales; the consumption in multiple countries has been lowered, resulting in a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 bales in global cotton consumption; the global ending stocks forecast has been raised by 1.28 million bales. In China, the production forecast has been raised by 500,000 bales to 35.5 million bales; at the same time, the consumption has also been raised by 500,000 bales, and after offsetting each other, the ending stocks forecast remains the same as last month. As of March 10, the national cotton inspection volume was 7.5 million bales, 220,000 tons less than the USDA's March production forecast. Currently, the inspection of new cotton in China is coming to an end, and it is expected that there will be little change in the production adjustment in the later stage [3]. - In the United States, the key data of production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks remain the same as last month. As the new cotton planting season approaches, the market is concerned about the new cotton planting area, and attention should be paid to the planting intention data released by the USDA at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Data - **Global**: Beginning stocks are 7.376 billion bales, production is 12.099 billion bales, imports are 4.391 billion bales, consumption is 11.858 billion bales, exports are 4.391 billion bales, and ending stocks are 7.639 billion bales. Month-on-month, production increased by 113 million bales, imports increased by 20 million bales, consumption decreased by 14 million bales, exports increased by 20 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 128 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks increased by 46 million bales, production increased by 245 million bales, imports increased by 88 million bales, consumption decreased by 36 million bales, exports increased by 150 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 263 million bales [7]. - **China**: Beginning stocks are 3.484 billion bales, production is 3.55 billion bales, imports are 560 million bales, consumption is 3.95 billion bales, exports are 8 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.636 billion bales. Month-on-month, production increased by 50 million bales, and consumption increased by 50 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks decreased by 187.6 million bales, production increased by 350 million bales, imports increased by 41.5 million bales, consumption increased by 50 million bales, exports increased by 1.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 152.5 million bales [7]. - **United States**: Beginning stocks are 400 million bales, production is 1.392 billion bales, imports are 1 million bales, consumption is 160 million bales, exports are 1.2 billion bales, and ending stocks are 440 million bales. Month-on-month and year-on-year, all data remain unchanged [7]. - **India**: Beginning stocks are 922 million bales, production is 2.35 billion bales, imports are 400 million bales, consumption is 2.5 billion bales, exports are 140 million bales, and ending stocks are 1.032 billion bales. Month-on-month, imports increased by 80 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 80 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.4 million bales, production increased by 30 million bales, imports increased by 95.9 million bales, exports increased by 7.5 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 110 million bales [7]. Inventory Situation - As of the end of February, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40,000 tons. In the context of a significant increase in cotton production this year, the year-on-year decrease in commercial inventory indicates that overall cotton consumption (sales) has performed well in the past period. Regionally, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang warehouses has decreased rapidly. At the end of February, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang warehouses was 4.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 386,000 tons, the highest decline rate in the same period in recent years; a year-on-year decrease of 270,000 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]. - As of last Friday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,791; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387 [64]. Price and Market Trends - The price of the active cotton contract has shown an upward trend. From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the price of the ZCE active contract increased from 15,295 yuan/ton to 15,415 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE active contract increased from 64.21 cents/pound to 65.8 cents/pound, an increase of 1.59 cents/pound [9]. - The prices of imported cotton and imported yarn have also increased. From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the price of US EMOT M increased from 73.80 cents/pound to 75.00 cents/pound, and the price of Brazilian M increased from 72.40 cents/pound to 73.60 cents/pound. The prices of Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S imported yarns all increased by 130 - 140 yuan/ton [14][15]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been widening. Last Friday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding duty was 33 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of -73 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 76 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was 3,121 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4,230 yuan/ton [52]. - On the futures market, last Friday, the price difference between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,150 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 240 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn was -2,227 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 155 yuan/ton week-on-week [57]. Market Activity and Consumption - As of the week ending March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 68%, a decrease of 8% compared with the four-week average, and a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Among them, Vietnam signed 26,400 tons and Bangladesh signed 6,400 tons [26]. - The textile and clothing export volume and domestic retail sales in China show certain trends, but specific data and analysis are presented in the form of charts in the report [35]. - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of the Keqiao textile industry also show certain trends, but specific data and analysis are presented in the form of charts in the report [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, the 25/26 season saw a significant increase in cotton production, but consumption also increased due to expanded yarn spindle capacity. The inventory at the end of the year may be tight, and the domestic new crop has a production reduction expectation, so the medium - to - long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market fundamentals are bearish in the short term, but there are potential positive factors in the long - term supply. In China, sugar production is expected to increase this year, and the industry is in the inventory accumulation stage [4] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and domestic demand is expected to improve compared with last year. However, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the port inventory is high, so the short - term pulp price may remain at a low level [6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,515 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton (+1.27%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,483 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,668 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area is 56.345 million mu, the harvest area is 47.376 million mu, the yield per mu is expected to be 64 kg/mu (down 5.5 kg/mu), and the output is expected to be 3.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The recent escalation of the Middle East conflict brings short - term adjustment and risk - aversion pressure. The US cotton lacks a continuous upward drive in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term prospect is bullish [2] - Domestic: The 25/26 season had a large increase in production, but consumption increased, inventory is being depleted quickly, and the new crop in 26/27 may have a production reduction [2] Strategy Neutral to bullish. Short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference, and focus on new - season planting area reduction and subsidy policy [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,423 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the sugar spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,320 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] - Guangdong Sugar: As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 4.8961 million tons, sugar production was 0.4967 million tons, and the inventory was 0.2057 million tons [3] Market Analysis - International: The escalation of the Middle East conflict provides indirect support, but the global sugar market fundamentals are bearish in the short term, with potential positive factors in the long term [4] - Domestic: Sugar production in Guangxi decreased year - on - year as of February, but the overall domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the industry is in the inventory accumulation stage [4] Strategy Neutral. The current price increase is mainly due to macro - disturbances and capital promotion, and pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,260 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026 [6] - Demand: Domestic finished paper production capacity has increased in the past two years, but terminal demand is insufficient. In 2026, the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to improve [6] Strategy Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term pulp price may be in a low - level consolidation [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream is still resuming work. The expectations of the "Golden March and Silver April" and high production capacity strongly support the lower limit of cotton prices. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the narrow - range oscillation of US cotton limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices. After a rapid sharp rise last week, it has entered an adjustment phase. In the medium - to - long term, the cotton planting area will decline in 2026, the supply - demand situation will improve, and cotton prices still have room to rise. The increase depends on the situation of the new cotton area [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was 16,583 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 98 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,333 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 21,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn contract was 21,055 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton [38]. - As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty was 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 324 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 2,932 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,122 yuan/ton [40]. - As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 5,805 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 1,990 yuan/ton, and the loss margin narrowed by 156 yuan/ton week - on - week [44]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,643; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 363 [51]. Supply and Demand - As of yesterday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty was about 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the 1% tariff was as high as 4,100 yuan/ton. Under the high price difference, the import profit of cotton yarn has recovered, and the import volume may increase [5]. - As of this Friday, the start - up load index of yarn mills was 49.09, and that of cloth mills was 48.3. Compared with previous years, the resumption of work this year is a bit slower; the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is at the highest level in the same period in recent years, and their purchasing willingness is not strong, and they replenish inventory at low prices [5]. - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released its March monthly report, showing that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decrease by 4% to 24.8 million tons, with the main production cuts coming from Brazil and the United States; the global cotton consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - As of the week ending February 26, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% decrease from the previous week, a 50% decrease from the four - week average, and a 10% decrease year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam signed 11,500 tons and Pakistan signed 6,300 tons [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and inflation expectations [7][12][13] - Different industries and commodities show various trends and investment opportunities under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes Summary by Directory Macro Information - The 2026 National Two Sessions are about to start. The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th [7] - US President Trump made tough statements on multiple issues during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz, and announced insurance for maritime crude oil transportation and potential naval escort [7] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp decline in the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and the logistics of dry bulk and containers in the region has come to a standstill [7] - The conflict between the US and Iran has continued to spread, with the destruction of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility and threats from both sides. The election of Iran's new supreme leader is in the final stage [7] - Trump's actions have led to a new wave of stock selling and rising energy prices, increasing inflation concerns. The probability of the Fed's second interest - rate cut this year has dropped to 50% [7] - In February, the central bank's MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, SLF net investment was 0 yuan, and other structural monetary policy tools had a net investment of - 7.6 billion yuan. In open - market operations, the net investment of national debt trading was 50 billion yuan, 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net investment of - 120.5 billion yuan, and other - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 600 billion yuan [8] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [8] - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of power supply guarantee, energy transformation, and the construction of a unified national power market [8] - Alibaba's desktop Agent QoderWork is fully open, providing Mac and Windows versions [8] - Trump submitted a notice under the War Powers Act to Congress regarding the military operation against Iran on February 28th. Congress will vote on a bill to limit the president's war - making power this week [9] - India has 25 - day inventories of crude oil and refined fuels and is looking for alternative sources of imports [9] - Qatar's LNG export facilities were attacked and shut down, and the company suspended the production of multiple products. Goldman Sachs raised its natural gas price forecast [10] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is mainly for risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks have reduced risk appetite and pushed up inflation expectations, suppressing the performance of the equity market [12] Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks have reduced risk appetite and pushed up inflation expectations, which may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [13] Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The current order - receiving situation of steel is generally okay, but some steel mills face pressure. The downstream galvanized and cold - rolled processing fees are still inverted, and the inventory of steel, especially coils, is high, which suppresses steel prices [14] - The real - estate new - house sales data is still weak year - on - year, and the new construction starts have a large decline. Infrastructure projects have limited starts, but the funds in place have improved year - on - year. The demand for coils from downstream industries is okay [14] - The supply side has low - level profits for steel mills, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The raw material prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate. For iron ore, short - term high - position short orders can take profits, and long - term partial short orders can be held lightly [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price of coking coal and coke may fluctuate. After the Spring Festival, the supply has recovered significantly, while the demand from steel mills has a rigid support but is restricted by the uncertain recovery of terminal steel demand. International energy price increases may support the price [18] Ferroalloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The silicon - iron market is in a tight - balance pattern before large - scale resumption of production in Qinghai, and the demand from magnesium for silicon - iron is strong. Manganese - silicon has an oversupply situation, and the cost is relatively strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions in silicon - iron when the price surges and to wait and see for manganese - silicon [19] Soda Ash and Glass - The market has strong expectations for the future maintenance of soda - ash plants and potential cold - repair plans for glass production lines. The supply of soda ash remains high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The supply of glass has both cold - repair and ignition plans. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - Under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the potential balance - sheet reduction may put pressure on copper prices. The short - term copper price will fluctuate widely. The long - term supply of global copper mines is tight, which supports the copper price [22] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market has a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. In the short term, supply increases and demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. In the medium term, the supply may be restricted, and the demand is expected to increase, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - valuation repair. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant, and the polysilicon market is under pressure due to shipping blockages [26] Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market should focus on the actual demand for resumption of production and the impact of external conflicts. The short - term trend will turn into a shock. The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the cotton price is expected to rise in the long term [30] Sugar - The sugar market has a situation of phased supply surplus, and the sugar price is under pressure. The global sugar surplus has been adjusted, and the production in some countries has been reduced. The Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the rise in oil prices. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [31] Eggs - The spot price of eggs in March is expected to rise, but the space is limited. The second - quarter futures contracts are supported by the expected rise in the spot price, but the premium is large, so the upper pressure is high. The far - month contracts are under pressure due to good replenishment data [34] Apples - High - quality apple products are expected to continue a strong trend, and the futures price may be strong. The prices of high - quality apples in some western regions are rising, while the prices in Shandong are stable [36] Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures price fluctuates. The corn faces phased pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [37] Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The price in the Cangzhou market is stable, and the consumption during the Spring Festival is generally flat. The market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [37] Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is likely to be weak. It is not recommended to short the near - month futures contracts in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the entry of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage [39] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude - oil price has risen and then fallen, and the extreme panic has eased. The geopolitical situation is still the main trading factor. The US - Iran conflict has a significant impact on global crude - oil supply. If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the global crude - oil price will soar. The OPEC+ may increase production to make up for the potential supply shortage [42] Fuel Oil - The short - term trading of fuel oil is mainly affected by the geopolitical - led oil price. The supply risk has not been eliminated, and the Strait of Hormuz is still the biggest risk factor for the oil price [44] Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the polyolefin price. The polyolefin supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, but the war in Iran has led to an increase in the oil price and a reduction in plastic production, making the market atmosphere strong [45] Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. It is possible to continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR spread and shorting the RU - BR spread. The overseas raw - material price is strong, and the domestic production area has a good opening - cut expectation [46] Synthetic Rubber - Based on the good fundamentals of butadiene in the first half of the year, it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber at low prices, but be cautious about the rapid decline in energy prices and high inventory. The price of synthetic rubber is rising due to cost - push factors [48] Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the Middle - East situation is still uncertain. The local war in Iran may lead to a reduction in methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock thinking, but a shutdown of downstream MTO plants may cause a price callback [49] Caustic Soda - The chlor - alkali industry is gradually resuming production. The caustic - soda price is relatively weak due to the impact of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to have a wide - range shock thinking for caustic - soda futures [50] Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - winter - storage replenishment demand in March [51] PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the expectation of future capacity - reduction policies and the improvement of the fundamental situation caused by recent export rush. The short - term trend may be bullish - shock. The rise in the oil price will increase the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and use an interval - shock thinking [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is dominated by the oil price and market sentiment, and it will continue to be strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Iran is an important LPG supplier to China. The future LPG supply is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation has increased volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [54] Pulp - The pulp market has a conflict between weak reality and macro factors, resulting in unstable multi - empty games. The port inventory has reached a new high, and the downstream has not started replenishing inventory. The price has support from the supply - side disturbance and foreign - market price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory and price - increase implementation [56] Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under cost support. The inventory data after the Spring Festival is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and the new delivery rules [57] Urea - The urea - futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies. The spot - market price is basically stable, and the futures price is supported by the rise in the overseas oil price but is also restricted by the policy guidance price [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) continuing to rise is relatively high. The supply in the new year is tightening, the commercial inventory has turned downward, and the reduction in the comprehensive tariff calculation has boosted exports. However, two major risks should be noted: the implementation of the new US tariff policy may change the global cotton trade pattern, and the continuous increase in Brazilian cotton supply may suppress the upward movement of the outer - market prices, and the large price difference between the inner and outer markets will limit the upward space of Zhengmian. [1][30] - The USDA February supply - demand monthly report has a bearish impact, but the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, demand to increase, and ending inventory to decline in the new year. The market is waiting for a clear signal from the demand side, and the overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, Zhengmian fluctuated slightly and then broke through to the upside. After the Spring Festival, boosted by international market news, it broke through the previous trading range and reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton. [3] - The international cotton market first declined and then rose in February. At the beginning of February, US cotton was weak, reaching a minimum of 62.86 cents/pound. After the USDA outlook forum released a tightening forecast for the new - year international cotton market supply - demand situation and the weak US dollar provided support, US cotton rose to a maximum of 66.38 cents/pound. [3] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Commercial and Industrial Inventory - In January 2026, the domestic cotton inventory showed the characteristics of "commercial de - stocking and industrial restocking", with a more prominent differentiation in the inventory structure. As of February 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from 5.7887 million tons on January 31. The de - stocking pace in Xinjiang was significantly faster than that in the inland. The industrial inventory increased moderately from 1.001 million tons at the end of January to 1.0292 million tons in the first half of February. [6] 3.2.2 Price Difference between Domestic and International Cotton - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has been widening with a pattern of "strong domestic and weak international". As of February 25, the duty - paid cost of medium - quality imported cotton within the quota (1% tariff) was about 12,782 yuan/ton, 3,547 yuan/ton lower than the price of domestic 3128B cotton. The duty - paid cost of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was about 13,840 yuan/ton, 2,489 yuan/ton lower than domestic cotton, and the price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. The expected decrease in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the impact of Brazilian cotton exports on the outer - market, and the strong purchasing intention of domestic textile enterprises after the Spring Festival are the main driving factors. The price difference expansion has opened the import profit window, and China's cotton imports in the 2026/27 season are expected to increase to 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0%. In the short term, the increase in imported cotton arrivals may suppress the upward movement of the inner - market, but in the long - term, the price difference is expected to narrow to within 2,000 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.3 Downstream Market - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic textile enterprises was in an orderly manner, with the start - up rate showing the characteristics of "leading in Xinjiang, following in East China, and lagging in South China". As of February 20, the start - up rate of textile enterprises was 18.7%, and as of February 13, the start - up rate of weaving enterprises was 14%. The release of downstream demand needs to be verified. Spinning enterprises are still cautious in restocking, and the "peak season" orders in March and April have not been fully realized. The finished product inventory of weaving enterprises has increased, and the inventory of weaving enterprises is at the second - highest level in five years. [13][15] 3.2.4 Tariff Policy - Since January 2026, the US tariff policy on Chinese textile and clothing has improved marginally, with the comprehensive tariff level dropping from 18.2% to 15.7%, covering intermediate products such as pure cotton yarn and grey cloth and household textile products, which directly reduces the export cost of enterprises. In the long run, the improvement of the tariff policy is expected to increase the export amount of cotton textiles in 2026, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the release of production capacity of Southeast Asian competitors may still restrict the recovery of exports. [18] 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Report - The USDA February supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 92,000 tons to 26.096 million tons, consumption decreased by 44,000 tons to 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136,000 tons to 16.353 million tons. The core change in the supply side is concentrated in China, and the main feature on the demand side is the reduction in consumption in Pakistan. [22] 3.3.2 US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the predicted total export volume for the year (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the total signed volume for the year. The signing volume has declined slightly, with a significant decline in Vietnam's signing, while signing in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan has continued to grow. The overall shipment rhythm is stable. The signing and shipment of Pima cotton have remained stable, and the cumulative signing progress is currently slow, but it is expected to accelerate in the future. [25] 3.3.3 US Trade Policy - Since 2025, the US has shifted its textile and clothing trade policy towards South Asia from high - pressure suppression to targeted concessions and raw - material binding, aiming to reshape the global cotton - textile supply chain centered on US cotton. In February 2026, the US reached tariff agreements with Bangladesh and India, reducing the benchmark tariff rate and setting up a zero - tariff mechanism for using US cotton, which will significantly enhance the export competitiveness of South Asian textiles, lock in the long - term demand for US cotton, and weaken the substitution space of Indian and Brazilian cotton. [29] 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - For the domestic market, Zhengmian is likely to continue rising. Operators are advised to make long - term layouts based on the fundamentals, pay attention to the progress of domestic resumption of work, US cotton export sales data, and the implementation of tariff policies. The main operation idea is to buy on dips, with the upper - limit pressure reference at 16,000 yuan/ton. [1][30] - For the international market, although the USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengmian. [2][30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the overall positive outlook from the US Agricultural Outlook Forum during the holiday, short - term positive effects of US tariffs, improved medium - to - long - term fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton, and the favor of funds, Zhengzhou cotton prices soared after the holiday. The main contract reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton this week. Although there was a subsequent correction, it encountered resistance around 15,300 yuan/ton, showing an overall strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, with the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton still has room for growth, and it is advisable to buy on dips. In the short - term, there may be correction pressure, but the amplitude is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream after the holiday and cotton - related policies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global and US Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Outlook Forum, in the 26/27 cotton season, the global total cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption to increase by 1.2% year - on - year, and ending stocks to decrease by 5.2% year - on - year. The US cotton planting area is expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year, the harvested area to decrease by 2.2% year - on - year, and the yield per unit to remain flat. The total US cotton production is expected to be 2.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, consumption to remain flat year - on - year, exports to increase by 1.7% year - on - year, and ending stocks to decrease by 4.5% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 32 million bales, with a consumption increase of about 1% [5]. US Cotton Export Signing - As of the week ending February 19, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 46% week - on - week decline (the signing volume in the week of February 12 reached a new high for the year), a 7% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 19% year - on - year decline. Among them, Bangladesh signed 16,000 tons and India 13,500 tons. The total signing volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season accounted for 79% of the forecast, a 3 - percentage - point week - on - week increase and a 15 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 1 percentage point compared to last week. The total shipment progress was 51%, a 1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase and a 3 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [7][21]. Domestic Downstream Situation - As of Thursday this week, the operating rate of yarn mills has recovered to 41%, and that of fabric mills to 36.2%. In terms of raw materials for yarn mills, the pre - holiday cotton yarn inventory of yarn mills has reached 35 days, the highest in recent years, and currently, the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong. The current spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton (1% tariff) is about 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. Price and Spread Information - **Futures Price Changes**: From February 13 to February 26, 2026, the price of the ZCE active contract of cotton increased from 14,740 yuan/ton to 15,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 610 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE active contract increased from 64.18 cents/pound to 65.37 cents/pound, an increase of 1.19 cents/pound [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was 16,681 yuan/ton, a 562 - yuan/ton increase compared to before the holiday; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 15,350 yuan/ton, a 610 - yuan/ton increase compared to before the holiday; the basis between them was 1,331 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion. The C32S yarn price index was 21,870 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was 21,255 yuan/ton, a 725 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the basis between them was 615 yuan/ton, a 375 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion [48]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Spreads**: On Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff was 336 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the price difference with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 67 yuan/ton, a 104 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price was 2,780 yuan/ton, a 3,798 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [51]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: On Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 5,850 yuan/ton, a 60 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 2,180 yuan/ton, with the loss amplitude expanding by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [54]. Warehouse Receipt Information - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,416 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 52 sheets [62].