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中泰期货晨会纪要-20251010
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:33
交易咨询资格号: 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 10 日 | 联系人:王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格:F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号:Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话: | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话: | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址: | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号:证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌 | 沪铅 | 郑棉 | | ビー | PVC | 菜粕 | | 棕榈油 | 豆油 | 豆粕 | | 白糖 | 聚丙烯 | 甲醇 | | 沪锡 | 热轧卷板 | 橡胶 | | 沪金 | 鸡蛋 | 玉米 | | 沪铜 | 锰硅 | 沖铝 | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 菜油 | | | | 塑料 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | ...
农产品日报:增产预期不断增强,郑棉延续下跌趋势-20250930
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:21
农产品日报 | 2025-09-30 增产预期不断增强,郑棉延续下跌趋势 白糖观点 策略 中性偏空。新棉增产预期持续压制盘面,叠加金九旺季不旺,需求面支撑不足,棉价仍有继续走弱的风险,至于 下方空间还有多大,关注后期收购价走势。 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 风险 期货方面,昨日收盘棉花2601合约13350元/吨,较前一日变动-55元/吨,幅度-0.41%。现货方面,3128B棉新疆到 厂价14942元/吨,较前一日变动-13元/吨,现货基差CF01+1592,较前一日变动+2;3128B棉全国均价14953元/吨, 较前一日变动-48元/吨,现货基差CF01+1603,较前一日变动-35。 市场分析 近期市场资讯,据海关统计数据,2025年8月我国棉纱进口量为13.20万吨,同比增加2.65万吨,增幅为25.12%;环 比增加2.5万吨,增幅为23.36%。2025年1-8月我国棉纱进口量为90.89万吨,同比减少9.99万吨,减幅为9.90%。8 月我国棉纱进口单价为2.19美元/公斤,同比下跌7.20%,环比上涨2.34%。1-8月我国棉纱进口单价为2.34美元/公斤, 同比下跌5.91%。 昨日郑棉 ...
软商品日报-20250929
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 12:48
| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU继续小跌,NR先抑后扬,BR继续下跌,国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶现价稳中有跌,外盘丁二烯港口价格稳定,泰国原料市 场价格总体下跌。供应方面,目前全球天然橡胶供应进入高产期,东南亚等产区降雨天气偏多;上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工 率继续大幅回落,益华橡塑临时停车检修、山东威特继 ...
郑棉:供给压力下支撑边际转弱
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 07:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].
国投期货软商品日报-20250925
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 11:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]
国投期货软商品日报-20250924
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 13:28
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summaries by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. New cotton sales may be favorable at the beginning of the new cotton listing period due to low old - crop inventory [2] - Xinjiang machine - picked cotton acquisition is expected to gradually start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The probability of a high - yield cotton crop in Xinjiang is large, but the specific yield estimate ranges from 720 to 770 tons [2] - Ginners are cautious about new cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a situation of grabbing cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the high yield [2] - At the beginning of the new cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. The weak demand in the peak season and poor spinning profits drag down the cotton price [2] - Positive signals have been released in Sino - US trade negotiations, but details need further follow - up. After Zhengzhou cotton broke through the support level, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increase in the sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss of sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. After July, the rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be relatively good [3] - Typhoon Koinu will bring wind and rain to Guangxi, with expected limited impact. Follow - up conditions need to be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated strongly. In the spot market, the demand for cold - storage apples increased due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high, with the pre - harvest order price remaining high [4] - Based on the bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side [4] - Apple farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples left for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new quarter may be higher than market expectations [4] - Although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage apple inventory in the new quarter will be higher than expected. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish operation strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly, and the sentiment in the futures market improved. The domestic spot price of natural rubber was stable, the spot price of synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market was stable [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period, and Super Typhoon Koinu passed through production areas such as China and Vietnam. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, and some plants were shut down for maintenance or operating at low loads [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly, tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tire products increased [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 46.12 tons, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing and the general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.26 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to decline to 2.31 tons [5] - Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, the supply of synthetic rubber decreases and inventory also decreases, and cost - driven factors strengthen. As the National Day holiday approaches, risk preference is cautious. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [5] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the price of broad - leaved pulp was also stable [6] - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 211.2 tons, a 5 - ton increase from the previous period, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the inventory was still at a high level year - on - year [6] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [6] - China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 265.3 tons, a 22.7 - ton month - on - month decrease. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the pulp demand is still average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt a range - trading strategy [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream quotation was stable [7] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In September, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased [7] - The external quotation is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level [7] - Although the demand has entered the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average shipment volume during the off - season remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth [7] - The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and the short - term price increase momentum is insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [7]
国投期货软商品日报-20250922
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:41
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate varies widely. Mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, and domestic peak - season demand is weak, dragging down cotton prices. After the short - term breakdown, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm is fast this year, and the market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. - Apple: The futures price fluctuated. The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples is good, and the price of early - maturing apples is high. However, the supply - side lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the short term [4]. - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber: The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there are typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. - Paper pulp: The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply is relatively loose while the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [7]. - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders is weak. The peak - season demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is small. The short - term price increase momentum is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. Summary by Commodity Cotton - Spot trading was weak, and new cotton pre - sales were good. The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the harvest probability was high, possibly exceeding 700 tons. Mills were cautious about purchases, and peak - season demand was weak, dragging down prices. After the breakdown, wait and see [2]. Sugar - In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, the sales rhythm was fast, and the market focused on the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. Apple - The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples was good, and the price of early - maturing apples was high. The supply - side lacked bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. The short - term futures price is expected to decline [4]. 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber - The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period, and there were typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. Wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. Paper pulp - The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply was relatively loose while the demand was average. Wait and see or trade within a range [7]. Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The supply was expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders was weak. The peak - season demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was small. The short - term price increase momentum was insufficient, and it was advisable to wait and see [8].
农业策略:郑棉大幅减仓,棉价区间内回落
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]
软商品日报-20250829
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: White star [1] - Timber: White star [1] - Natural Rubber: White star [1] - 20 - rubber: White star [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still volatile, with a cautious view on the upside space. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Due to the possible shortfall in Brazil's sugar production, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3]. - The futures price of apples continues to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The market is bullish in the short term, but there is insufficient bullish drive on the supply side in the medium and long term. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - The demand for rubber is expected to weaken in the short term, the supply increases, the natural rubber inventory continues to decline, and the synthetic rubber inventory rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. - The supply - demand situation of logs has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and light trading. In July, domestic cotton imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 149400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22600 tons. A 200000 - ton sliding - duty processing trade quota was issued, which can relieve the cost pressure on some export enterprises. The market expects a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of July were bullish. In the short term, the US sugar price may rebound, and it has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. This year's sales rhythm was fast, with lower inventory. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth [3]. Apple - The futures price continued to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The price of early - maturing apples is high, increasing the market's bullish sentiment. However, the supply - side increase in the 25/26 quarter is not significant, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated and rose today. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires and semi - steel tires rebounded, and the tire enterprises' finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded, and the butadiene port inventory declined. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Pulp - The pulp futures continued to decline today. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream imported sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The global pulp shipment to China in June was 1.6119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. Timber - The futures price of logs fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The log arrival volume decreased last week, and the domestic import is not expected to increase significantly in the short term. The daily port outbound volume is about 60000 cubic meters, and the inventory is 3.05 million cubic meters as of August 22, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]
棉花:USDA利好美棉收涨,郑棉放量上涨
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 11:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].