1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

1. Market Data Overview - The report presents various data related to the financial market, including sector fund flows, trading volume changes, futures contract price movements, and more [1][2][3] 2. Sector - Related Data - Sector fund flows are presented in percentage terms, showing the direction of capital movement in different sectors [1] - Sector trading volume changes are also presented in percentage, indicating the fluctuations in trading activity [2] 3. Futures - Related Data - Futures main contract price changes are shown, covering different types of futures such as 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures [3][4] - Daily trading volume changes of various futures and commodity varieties are presented in percentage [5][6] - The trading volume of different varieties is also provided, with some values in billions of yuan [7][8] 4. Commodity - Related Data - The daily trading volume changes of commodities like beans, cotton, sugar, etc. are shown in percentage [6] - The trading volume of commodities is presented, with some data in billions of yuan [8] - The daily capital changes of some commodities are presented in percentage [9][10] - The holding amount of certain commodities is also part of the report [12] - The daily speculation degree of different varieties is presented, with some data presented in a graphical form [13][14] - The historical volatility of some commodities is also mentioned [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices are oscillating at a high level. Overseas, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with the drought - affected area of US cotton remaining at 3% as of July 22, and the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton at 57% as of July 20, higher than last week and last year. Also, the net export sales of US cotton last week were only 100,000 bales, which put pressure on US cotton. However, the high - temperature and low - rainfall weather in the western US cotton - growing areas in the coming week is unfavorable for cotton growth, and the strong performance of US crude oil and US grains provides support for US cotton. With these mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. - In the domestic market, on the supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively low. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the operating rate of spinning mills is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is constantly accumulating. Currently, the new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, the soil moisture is fair, and the high - temperature situation in the growing areas has recently eased. - Strategy: With mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. In China, the low import of cotton and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory lead to a relatively fast inventory - reduction speed. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. In addition, the downstream demand is still weak, combined with the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, which will limit the upward range of Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - US cotton is affected by both positive and negative factors and is oscillating. In China, due to low cotton imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory, the inventory - reduction speed is fast. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. The weak downstream demand, increased new - season cotton planting area, and alleviated Xinjiang high - temperature will limit the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. 3.2 Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 68.23 cents per pound, down 0.53 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.77%. The CF2509 contract closed at 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.70% [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Growth**: As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. The boll - setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week and compared with 40% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 33%. The budding rate was 71%, up from 61% the previous week and compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 75% [14][18]. - **US Cotton Exports**: In the 2024/2025 season, the net export sales of US upland cotton were - 32,700 bales, significantly lower than the previous week and the four - week average. In the 2025/2026 season, the net export sales were 132,600 bales. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 184,800 bales, a week - on - week increase of 18% but a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average [14][22]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills**: As of July 24, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 67.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%. The operating rate continued to decline this week. The cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 27.90 days of storage, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.63% [14][26][29]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of July 24, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 353,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [14][31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions cotton basis, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but no specific data or analysis is provided [36].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, and the influencing factors include supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - economic factors. The investment strategies for different commodities mainly include waiting and seeing, intraday trading, or taking appropriate positions at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices pulled back today. The basis of domestic cotton spot sales was firm, and spot trading was average. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton was due to tight commercial cotton inventories and the possibility of a soft squeeze. Cotton yarn prices rose, but market trading did not improve significantly. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2829800 tons, a decrease of 628900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392300 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder was 115500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increase in production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. It is expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices weakened. The demand for apples was low due to the large supply of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&MR rose slightly, and BR rose significantly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The downstream demand improved, the rubber supply increased, the natural rubber inventory increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. The market sentiment improved, and there were potential policy benefits. The strategy is to go long on rebounds [5] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2181000 tons, a 0.2 - million - ton increase from the previous period. China's pulp imports in June were still relatively high. Currently, the import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [6] Timber - The futures price continued to rebound, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports in China was 62400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6.12%. The total port inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70000 cubic meters. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand timber will remain low, but domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - ICE cotton has rebounded due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, but the lack of obvious fundamental drivers and factors like good US cotton growth and weak global consumption prospects limit its upside potential [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures have risen significantly with an expanding 9 - 1 spread, mainly driven by concerns over tight old - crop inventories. The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has strengthened this positive factor, showing a stronger near - term and weaker long - term trend in futures. However, the accelerated rise is more influenced by technical buying and market sentiment than fundamentals, and there is a risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [2][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.44 | 69.15 | 67.36 | 68.76 | 1.34 | 1.99 | 89187 | - 1938 | 152744 | 1339 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13880 | 14375 | 13765 | 14270 | 385 | 2.77 | 1456374 | 487140 | 580773 | 25216 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 20070 | 20600 | 19980 | 20520 | 425 | 2.11 | 39318 | 3115 | 19058 | - 3547 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Rebounded this week due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, and supported by commercial bargain - hunting [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending July 10, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 93% week - on - week and 89% compared to the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 1.66 tons. The total signed sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 90% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Sowing progress is slightly slower than last year. Cotton planting area as of July 11 was 9.3 million hectares. Cotton textile product exports in June decreased by 4% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year, and ready - made garment exports decreased by 13% month - on - month [8]. - **Brazil**: The US tariff increase on Brazilian goods has raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. The trading of new cotton in the 2025 season is slow, and farmers have sold about 70% of the total output [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is moderate. Local cotton production is expected to be between 6.5 - 7.5 million bales, and the price of new cotton in Punjab in 2025/26 is about 16,500 - 16,700 rupees per mound [9]. - **Bangladesh**: Focusing on US tariff negotiations. Cotton imports in June were 12.3 tons, lower than in May and the same period last year. The cumulative imports in the first 11 months of this year increased by 11% compared to the same period in 2023/24 [10]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending July 18, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 73%, 64%, and 62% respectively [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot Market**: Spot trading is weak, but prices have risen sharply. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and some large spinning mills locked in basis prices for better procurement on July 16 [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, there were 9532 registered warehouse receipts and 223 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9755 receipts, equivalent to 409,710 tons [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The price of pure - cotton yarn has continued to rise, and actual transactions are gradually following up. The profit of spinning mills has not improved significantly, and the startup rate of inland spinning mills has continued to decline. The off - season in the cotton - fabric market continues, with low startup rates, slow sales, and increasing inventory [14]. 3.3 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton needs to wait for a driver to break through the oscillation range this year. For domestic cotton, continue to monitor the profit, startup rate, and finished - product inventory of downstream textile enterprises, especially the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills. Pay attention to supply - related policies (such as reserve policies and import quota policies) and demand - related policies (such as "anti - involution" in the industrial sector). Be aware of the risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that after the US-China phase one trade agreement in May, the price of Zheng cotton has experienced three rounds of increases, returning to levels seen before the Qingming Festival, but the market outlook remains divided with both upward and downward pressures [1][3] - The USDA's June supply and demand report has lowered the global cotton production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and global trade volume for the 2024/2025 season, which has a neutral to slightly bullish impact [1] - For the 2025/2026 season, the USDA has also reduced the cotton production, beginning, and ending stocks in the US, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - The USDA's June report estimates China's cotton production at 6.5 million tons, which may be underestimated, while the domestic market shows weak performance with a decline in the fabric sector's operating rate [2] - The export market for cotton textiles has performed better than expected, with May exports showing a 2% month-on-month increase and a 10% year-on-year increase, characterized by a "price for volume" strategy [2] - The average export price of cotton textiles to the US has continued to decline by 1.41%, indicating a trend of downgrading high-end products to gain market share [2] Group 3 - From April to June, there has been a significant reduction in port cotton imports, aligning with positive export data, while US retail inventories remain stable [3] - Investors are optimistic about Zheng cotton due to undervaluation recovery, but further price increases may require macroeconomic support, while downward adjustments may depend on negative feedback from downstream markets [3] - The overall cotton price breakthrough relies on macroeconomic factors, and strategies such as internal and external spreads and the 2509 and 2511 reverse spread should be monitored [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 9, 2025, including base spreads, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][15][23][37][46]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Spread**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of power coal was - 175.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared to previous days [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton from July 2 to July 8, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of INE crude oil was - 26.99 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1420 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The base spread data for fuel oil was not fully available on July 8, 2025 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were - 35, 67, 95, 105, and 605 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 870 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2364 yuan/ton, and the spread of LLDPE - PP was 196 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 67.0, 60.8, - 126.1, and - 48.5 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 month spread was 9.0 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 1 month spread was - 20.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.18, and the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1502 [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 270, 65, - 40, - 130, 1250, and - 600 yuan/ton respectively [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: On July 8, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 51.31, - 0.60, - 9.88, - 23.04, - 207.63, and - 20.00 respectively; the Shanghai - London ratios were 8.08, 7.94, 8.16, 8.40, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal varied [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of palm oil was - 145 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 51 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.77, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.71 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 39.85, 19.39, 19.74, and 171.90 respectively [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For CSI 300, the spread between the next - month and the current - month contract was - 16.8 [47].