1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices are oscillating at a high level. Overseas, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with the drought - affected area of US cotton remaining at 3% as of July 22, and the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton at 57% as of July 20, higher than last week and last year. Also, the net export sales of US cotton last week were only 100,000 bales, which put pressure on US cotton. However, the high - temperature and low - rainfall weather in the western US cotton - growing areas in the coming week is unfavorable for cotton growth, and the strong performance of US crude oil and US grains provides support for US cotton. With these mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. - In the domestic market, on the supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively low. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the operating rate of spinning mills is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is constantly accumulating. Currently, the new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, the soil moisture is fair, and the high - temperature situation in the growing areas has recently eased. - Strategy: With mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. In China, the low import of cotton and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory lead to a relatively fast inventory - reduction speed. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. In addition, the downstream demand is still weak, combined with the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, which will limit the upward range of Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - US cotton is affected by both positive and negative factors and is oscillating. In China, due to low cotton imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory, the inventory - reduction speed is fast. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. The weak downstream demand, increased new - season cotton planting area, and alleviated Xinjiang high - temperature will limit the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. 3.2 Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 68.23 cents per pound, down 0.53 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.77%. The CF2509 contract closed at 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.70% [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Growth**: As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. The boll - setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week and compared with 40% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 33%. The budding rate was 71%, up from 61% the previous week and compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 75% [14][18]. - **US Cotton Exports**: In the 2024/2025 season, the net export sales of US upland cotton were - 32,700 bales, significantly lower than the previous week and the four - week average. In the 2025/2026 season, the net export sales were 132,600 bales. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 184,800 bales, a week - on - week increase of 18% but a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average [14][22]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills**: As of July 24, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 67.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%. The operating rate continued to decline this week. The cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 27.90 days of storage, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.63% [14][26][29]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of July 24, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 353,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [14][31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions cotton basis, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but no specific data or analysis is provided [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that after the US-China phase one trade agreement in May, the price of Zheng cotton has experienced three rounds of increases, returning to levels seen before the Qingming Festival, but the market outlook remains divided with both upward and downward pressures [1][3] - The USDA's June supply and demand report has lowered the global cotton production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and global trade volume for the 2024/2025 season, which has a neutral to slightly bullish impact [1] - For the 2025/2026 season, the USDA has also reduced the cotton production, beginning, and ending stocks in the US, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - The USDA's June report estimates China's cotton production at 6.5 million tons, which may be underestimated, while the domestic market shows weak performance with a decline in the fabric sector's operating rate [2] - The export market for cotton textiles has performed better than expected, with May exports showing a 2% month-on-month increase and a 10% year-on-year increase, characterized by a "price for volume" strategy [2] - The average export price of cotton textiles to the US has continued to decline by 1.41%, indicating a trend of downgrading high-end products to gain market share [2] Group 3 - From April to June, there has been a significant reduction in port cotton imports, aligning with positive export data, while US retail inventories remain stable [3] - Investors are optimistic about Zheng cotton due to undervaluation recovery, but further price increases may require macroeconomic support, while downward adjustments may depend on negative feedback from downstream markets [3] - The overall cotton price breakthrough relies on macroeconomic factors, and strategies such as internal and external spreads and the 2509 and 2511 reverse spread should be monitored [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - The planting area of US cotton in 2025 is higher than market expectations, with a total of 10.12 million acres, a 9.5% decrease from 2024, but higher than the 9.87 million acres in the June USDA monthly supply - demand report and the pre - report market estimate of 9.735 million acres. The area of upland cotton is 9.949 million acres, and pima cotton is 171,000 acres, both showing year - on - year decreases. Currently, the cotton planting is almost finished, the weather is generally good, the excellent - good rate has rebounded, and the drought impact is low. There is an upward adjustment expectation for the later US cotton production [1][2]. Group 2: Data Summary from the US Planting Area Report - The report presents the planting and harvest areas of different states in 2024 and 2025. For example, in Alabama, the 2024 planting area was 400,000 acres, and it decreased to 340,000 acres in 2025. The total planting area of upland cotton decreased from 10.976 million acres in 2024 to 9.949 million acres in 2025, and the total planting area of pima cotton decreased from 207,000 acres in 2024 to 171,000 acres in 2025. The combined total planting area of upland and pima cotton decreased from 11.183 million acres in 2024 to 10.12 million acres in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Data Sources - All data sources are USDA and Guotou Futures [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This month, cotton prices fluctuated and rose. The June USDA report was bullish, but the planting area report and growth conditions were bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate monthly [6]. - In the domestic market, the decrease in cotton imports and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory led to a relatively fast de - stocking speed, supporting the futures market to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand remained weak, and the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton is expected to keep Zhengzhou cotton prices bottoming out at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report raised this year's exports, reducing the ending inventory by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales; it also lowered the next - year's harvested area and yield, with the new - year's production decreasing by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales and the ending inventory decreasing by 400,000 bales to 4.3 million bales [6]. - As of June in the U.S., cotton sowing was completed. The USDA expected the 2025 U.S. cotton area to be 10.12 million acres, higher than expected. The weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the cotton quality rate remained at a normal level. Meanwhile, the net export sales of U.S. cotton this month were relatively low [6]. - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory was continuously consumed, and imported cotton was scarce. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and under the situation of weak supply and demand, cotton prices were hard to improve [6]. - The new - season cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture was acceptable. Domestic surveys showed that the national cotton area in 2025 was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 30, ICE Cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly increase of 0.34%. CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 points from the opening, with a monthly decrease of 3.50% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Balance Sheet**: For the 2025/26 season, the expected harvested area was 8.19 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 acres; the expected yield per acre was 820 pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 12 pounds; the expected ending inventory was 4.3 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 900,000 bales [12][14]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Sowing Progress**: As of the week of June 22, the sowing rate was 92%, the previous week was 85%, the same period last year was 93%, and the five - year average was 95%. The cotton quality rate was 47%, the previous week was 48%, and the same period last year was 56% [12][17]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 19, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 27,000 bales, compared with 83,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 9.94 million bales, accounting for 86.43% of the June USDA report [12][21]. - **Domestic Demand - Spinning Mills**: As of June 26, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. New orders for spinning mills were few, and orders generally lasted about 15 days [25]. - **Domestic Spinning Mill Inventory**: As of the week of June 26, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.2 days of storage. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% [28]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 111,600 tons (a decrease of 3.73%). As of June 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.00% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 412,000 tons [31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking There is no specific content provided for spread tracking other than the data sources and spread types.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum Oxide [1] - Bearish: Zinc (for short - term short - selling opportunity), Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil (if no significant reduction in US soybean acreage), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc (in general), Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Iron Ore, Silicon Iron, Glass, Coking Coal, Coke, Canola Oil, Cotton, Corn, Bean Meal (MO9), Logs, Pig Futures, PTA, Styrene, Other Chemicals [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and it's necessary to pay attention to macro - incremental information for index direction guidance. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The overall macro sentiment has improved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen. Attention should be paid to tariff - related progress and domestic and foreign economic data changes [1]. - For different commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro policies, and international relations. For example, the supply recovery expectation of some metals is strong, while the demand shows signs of weakening, but the macro - sentiment improvement leads to price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summaries by Industry Macro - Financial - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate. Gold may be under short - term pressure due to improved market risk preference, but high tariff uncertainty prevents continuous decline. Silver is mainly in short - term oscillation [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, and aluminum oxide are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, improved market risk preference, and low inventory levels [1]. - Zinc price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, but there is an opportunity to short at the high - rebound level due to strong supply - recovery expectation and weakening demand [1]. - Nickel price rebounds from the short - term bottom but has limited upward space. There is still pressure from primary nickel oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term interval operation and short - selling hedging on rebounds are recommended [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate and rebound in the short - term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. There is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Tin price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to the import situation of Wa State tin ore [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is loose, and there is no upward price - driving force. For iron ore, there is an expectation of iron - water peak, and the supply may increase in June [1]. - Silicon iron price is expected to oscillate with weak supply - demand and approaching the off - season [1]. - Glass price is expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - surplus concern resurfaces, and the terminal demand is weak [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are bearish. In the context of over - capacity, the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil price is expected to decline as the supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating after the stagnation or decline of crude oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil price is expected to be bearish if the USDA report does not significantly reduce the US soybean acreage [1]. - Canola oil price is expected to oscillate before the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is announced [1]. - Cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. There are short - term disturbances in the US cotton market, and the domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - Corn price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended after the production situation is clearer [1]. - Bean meal (MO9) is expected to oscillate. There is an expectation of import - cost increase in the fourth quarter, and long - position opportunities at low prices for the November and January contracts are recommended [1]. - Pulp price is bearish due to the decline in foreign - market quotes, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1]. - Log price is expected to be weak as it is in the off - season and the supply decline is limited despite the foreign - market price increase [1]. - Pig futures are expected to be stable. Although the live - pig inventory is being repaired and the slaughter weight is increasing, the short - term spot is less affected by slaughter, and the decline is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are bearish as the Middle - East geopolitical situation cools down, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1]. - Asphalt price is affected by cost drag, possible increase in Shandong's consumption - tax refund, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber price is affected by weakening downstream demand, strong supply - release expectation, and slightly increased inventory [1]. - BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The BR premium has been withdrawn, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and the factory - ex price of butadiene rubber has been lowered [1]. - PTA price is expected to oscillate. The basis continues to weaken, the Northeast PX device maintenance is postponed, and the overseas PX device maintenance leads to a relatively strong PX performance [1]. - Styrene price: The device load has recovered, the inventory is concentrated, and the basis has strengthened significantly [1]. - Other chemicals such as PVC, caustic soda, and LPG are expected to be bearish. PVC is affected by the end of maintenance, new - device production, and the seasonal off - season. LPG has downward space due to factors such as geopolitical - situation mitigation, seasonal off - season, and increased inflow of low - price foreign goods [1]. Other - It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak - reaching time advanced. The shipping capacity deployment will be sufficient in the following weeks [1].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]