郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/19 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 受益于"双十一"促销前置，服装消费呈现企稳复苏态势。10月分，纺织品服装零售额达1471亿元， 同比增长6.3%，增速环比提升1.6个百分点，显著跑赢社会消费品零售总额增速。 新棉上市近半 核心观点 11月美农报告调增美国和中国产量预估，整体偏空；随着新棉加工量的增加，市场对新棉度棉花产量预 估有所上调；下游需求一般，产成品有累库迹象不过整体压力不大。籽棉收购进入尾声，新棉集中上市下供 给压力渐显，预计短期内郑棉或偏弱运行。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 11月美农偏空 11月美农未对美棉收获棉价进行调整，上调单产，最终使产量预估较9月份上调20万吨；上调中国棉花 产量预估22万吨；上调巴西棉花产量预估11万吨。最终，全球棉花产量预估较9月份上调52万吨，期末库存 预估较9月份上调60万吨，整体偏空。 纺服终端市场内外分化，国内消费表现良好 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国纺织品服装出口额为22.619亿美元，同比下降 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][7] Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short term, the upper limit of the cotton futures market is under significant hedging pressure, and there is a possibility of a callback to test previous lows after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the current cotton price is undervalued. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed [2] - **Sugar**: Before the end of the year, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate. Next year, the situation is not optimistic, and there is a possibility of new lows [5] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the pulp price is likely to remain in the bottom - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of demand during the peak season in the fourth quarter [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,656 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: From October 24 to 30, 2025, 202,500 tons of US 2025/26 cotton were graded and inspected, with 80.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, pushing up US cotton prices, but the amount of US cotton China will purchase is unclear. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply and demand pressure [2] - Domestic: The new cotton year starts with low inventory, but new cotton is being listed. The purchase price of seed cotton is rising, and the expected decline in production supports the post - holiday market. However, the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, there is a high hedging pressure on the market, and in the long - term, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - New Sugar: On October 30, 2025, Yingmao Sugar Industry's Mengpeng Sugar Mill started production, and the new sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, 710 yuan lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - International: The global sugar market is in a bearish cycle due to oversupply from Brazil and India. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has decreased recently, the long - term rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - Domestic: The new sugar season in China is expected to have increased production, but the price is near the production cost, and the tightening of syrup control policies supports the price, limiting the downside [4] Strategy - Neutral. The market will fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5306 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton (+1.80%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising moderately, with different price increases in various regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply. Domestic imports have increased, and port inventories remain high [6] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices. Despite new production capacity, effective demand is lacking, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengzhou Cotton: Rising Cost of Cotton Lint [1][40] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] - Qualification Number: F0272777 [3] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0010085 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Trump's continuous signals have led the market to have positive expectations for China-US trade relations; as the domestic cotton harvest progresses, the market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward compared to the previous period, and the purchase price of seed cotton has steadily increased. Recently, both domestic and international cotton prices have rebounded, with Zhengzhou cotton showing stronger rebound momentum than US cotton. Although downstream demand remains lackluster, the rising price of seed cotton has increased the cost of cotton lint, and the hedging pressure range has shifted upward. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, but due to the expected high yield and average downstream demand, the upward space is currently limited [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Expectations and Production Estimates - Trump's signals have created positive expectations for China-US trade relations, which may boost cotton prices if favorable. The market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward due to concerns about the impact of rainfall and cooling in Xinjiang on cotton yield and quality [4][5]. - As of October 16, the national cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of machine-picked seed cotton has been rising steadily. As of the previous day, the purchase price index of machine-picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week; in northern Xinjiang, it was 6.21 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [5]. - As of October 21, the cumulative inspection of cotton lint in the 2025 cotton year nationwide was 97.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%, with Xinjiang accounting for 96.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [5][6]. Import and Inventory - In September, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 22,300 tons but a month-on-month increase of 22,300 tons. From January to September this year, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 million tons, a decline of 69.9%. In September, the import volume of cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and flat month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons, a decline of 7.7%. In terms of import proportion, Australian cotton had the highest import volume in September, and Vietnamese cotton yarn had the highest import volume [7]. - As of the end of September, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 660,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, it was 1.72 million tons, only slightly higher than at the end of September last year [7]. Price Trends - From October 15 to October 22, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,270 yuan/ton to 13,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton, while the price of the active contract of US cotton decreased from 63.83 cents/pound to 63.65 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.18 cents/pound [8]. - From October 14 to October 21, the Cotlook A price index rose from 74.95 cents/pound to 75.6 cents/pound, an increase of 0.65 cents/pound. From October 13 to October 20, the price of Indian S-6 cotton decreased from 54,200 rupees/candy to 52,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 1,300 rupees/candy [10]. - From October 15 to October 22, the port pick-up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - From October 15 to October 22, the arrival prices of imported cotton (1% tariff and sliding duty) from the US and Brazil increased to varying degrees [12]. Downstream Market - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of Keqiao Textile showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of raw materials (cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills) and finished products in the downstream market also showed different trends [37][39][42]. - The operating load of the downstream yarn and fabric industries also showed certain fluctuations [43][44]. Futures Market - As of Wednesday this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week. The price index of C32S cotton yarn increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week [46]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton price index under sliding duty and 1% tariff increased week-on-week. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick-up price increased week-on-week [48]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week-on-week, and the loss of the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn widened week-on-week [49]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2,851, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic uncertainties increase with the US government shutdown, suspension of USDA reports, and fluctuating tariff statements from Trump, leading to a recent weakening of US cotton due to lack of news guidance. In China, new cotton is concentrated for listing, with the seed - cotton purchase price rising in the second half of the National Day holiday and then falling recently due to Sino - US tariff uncertainties. The "Golden September" performance is below expectations, and the market has low expectations for "Silver October" [3]. - Currently, the mainstream seed - cotton purchase price in the market has limited pressure on the futures market for hedging when converted to lint prices. With general downstream demand and expected yield increase, the upward momentum is also limited. Whether there will be a price increase depends on the later trend of seed - cotton prices. In the short term, both upward and downward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is insufficient [3]. - Attention should be paid to macro factors, demand, and seed - cotton prices. The significant year - on - year increase in the quantity of cotton under official inspection calls for attention to the difference between actual yield and expected yield [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Production and Sales - As of October 10, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 32.6%, 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 3.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate was 73.1%, 12.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 20.5 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [3]. - As of October 12, the cumulative officially inspected lint cotton nationwide was 37.48 tons, while in the same period of the previous year, only 15.03 tons were inspected [3]. - As of October 13, 24:00, the 2025/26 cotton inspection volume was about 41.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 180% [37]. 3.2 Textile and Apparel Exports - In September, China's textile and apparel exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, clothing exports were $12.45 billion, a decrease of 8%, and textile exports were $11.97 billion, an increase of 6.5% [4]. - From January to September, China's cumulative textile and apparel export volume was $221.69 billion, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [4]. 3.3 Industry Operation - As of Monday this week, the yarn mill operating load index was 50.7, up from the end of September; the cloth mill operating load index was 52, down from the end of September but showing an upward trend after the holiday, and further tracking is needed [4]. - In terms of finished product inventory, both yarn mills and cloth mills saw inventory accumulation after the holiday. In terms of raw material inventory, the cotton inventory of yarn mills has been on a downward trend since mid - to - late September and is currently at a slightly higher level compared to the same period in previous years, indicating that yarn mills have no strong intention to replenish raw materials. The cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, but after a rapid increase in the early stage, the current inventory level has stabilized [4]. 3.4 Price Trends - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou cotton active contract increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the ICE active contract price decreased by 2.29 cents/lb [6]. - From September 30 to October 13, 2025, the CotlookA price index decreased by 1.60 cents/lb, and the Indian S - 6 spot price decreased by 1500 rupees/candy [9]. - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the import yarn port pick - up prices of India C32S, Vietnam C32S, and Indonesia C32S decreased by 80 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the import cotton arrival prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M decreased under different tariff methods [10]. 3.5 US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [22]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2869 lots, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 lots [67].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential downward pressure in the medium - term and upward potential in the long - term [2][3] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production situation and domestic sales performance affect the price, with short - term downward pressure but limited further decline space [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains, and demand is weak, with short - term prices expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,895 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,214 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of September 14, the boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the harvest rate was 9%, 1 point slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 13 points higher than last year and 10 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume, and adjusted down initial and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand data changed little, with only a slight increase in production. The new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and commercial inventory is at a historical low. The supply is still tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally in the peak season. However, new - year production is expected to increase, and hedging pressure may be high during the new cotton listing [2] Strategy - If the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season fails, Zhengzhou cotton may fall. In the long - term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price center may rise after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,547 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - Market information: Brazilian mid - southern sugarcane yield in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the sugar extraction rate decreased by 2.9%. German beet sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to drop by 4.9% [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's mid - southern region increased in August, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. However, the ethanol price provides support, and the downward space is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales in August were poor, and the market worried about syrup policy relaxation. The domestic price is under downward pressure, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline [5][6] Strategy - Adopt an approach of waiting for a rebound after bottom - grinding in the short - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,068 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market information: The import wood pulp spot market had more price increases than decreases, with some prices adjusted by 10 - 150 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced production cuts, but it hasn't significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year, and wood pulp imports are expected to decline. Port inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. Domestic demand is weak, with paper mills' raw material procurement cautious and low operating rates [7] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short - term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to the August USDA report, but the actual reduction in production needs further observation. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices in the short - term. However, due to good growth of new cotton, there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing period [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production has issues with low cane quality, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in imports suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to sell high [6]. - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,240 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,336 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs until December 31, 2025 [1]. Market Analysis - International: The August USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term. The impact of the sliding - scale quota policy is limited, but there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new cotton [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate strongly before the large - scale listing of new cotton. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the demand during the peak season as there will be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,602 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 72, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 194,800 tons (6.67%) from the previous week [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. There is limited room for a sharp rebound. - Zhengzhou sugar: The high profit of out - of - quota imports and the expected increase in imports suppress sugar prices in the short - term [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Limited room for further decline, expected to fluctuate weakly within a range. - Medium - term: There may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter. - Long - term: Sell high [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,002 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with only sporadic price drops [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and there will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. - Demand: The consumption of pulp in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The overall demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Short - term: Pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level as the fundamentals have not improved significantly [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].