棉系周报：需求变化不大 棉价震荡为主 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 137/137 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，商业库存同比降低。 利空：贸易谈判延期，目前对美出口关税偏高。消费淡 季。总体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉即将大量上市。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花现货市场价 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（8.11-8.15） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花走势反弹，01重新站上14000关口。金九银十消费旺季即将到来，市场预期增强。除 非订单一开始就偏少，否则短期走势偏强。不排除先涨后跌的情况出现。 ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产量2539.2万 吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿美元，同比 下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加0.1%。农 村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, while the cotton yarn futures contract declined by 0.78%. Domestically, cotton is in a destocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton goes on the market, and the basis is firm. On the demand side, the textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid demand. In 2025, the overall planting area of Chinese cotton has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, due to the weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas, it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: U.S. cotton futures prices are weak. Domestically, cotton is destocking, supply is tight before new cotton is available, and the basis is strong. The textile industry is in the off - season, with reduced profits for inland spinning enterprises, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for rigid demand. The overall planting area of Chinese cotton in 2025 has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of high temperatures in Xinjiang on new crop growth. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro - factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: The price of the U.S. cotton December contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.45%. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 1.09% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions increased by 0.33% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 1.47% month - on - month [10]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of the week ending July 31, U.S. cotton export shipments were 182,300 bales, with the total export shipments reaching 11,191,200 bales, a 1% increase from the previous year. The net increase in cotton export sales for the week was 92,100 bales. As of August 5, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was reported at 77.75 cents per pound, a 0.32% increase month - on - month [15]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,574, and that in cotton yarn futures was 119 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,252, and that of cotton yarn futures was 83 [23][29][34]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,178 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,620 yuan per ton. As of August 7, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,760 yuan per ton [44][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 6, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was reported at 13,480 yuan per ton, a 0.44% increase month - on - month; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was reported at 14,282 yuan per ton, a 0.34% increase month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was reported at 21,206 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 6, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 896 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,698 yuan per ton [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 18.18%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [65]. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the total imported cotton was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 670,000 tons [69]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Export**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was reported at 1,204,820,700 US dollars, a month - on - month decline of 4.62%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was reported at 1,526,671,400 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.44% [77]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 742.59 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.98%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month decline of 6.06% [81]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton options market this week was provided [82]. - **Stock Market - Xinong Development**: Information on the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was provided [88].

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices turned and accelerated their decline. The main reasons were the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiations and the upcoming new cotton harvest, with downstream buyers not willing to accept price increases [4]. - The Sino - US trade negotiations were postponed, which was below market expectations, leading to a general weakening of commodities. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to 01. Recently, the decline of 09 was greater than that of 01, and 01 started to trade at a premium to 09. Currently in the consumption off - season, and the market outlook for the "Golden September and Silver October" is unclear. The 01 contract should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a year - on - year decline in commercial inventories. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices dropped rapidly. The ICAC July report showed that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The USDA July report indicated that the 25/26 season production is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 30,000 tons of cotton in June, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July forecast for the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips No information related to daily tips is provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA July report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. The ICAC report shows that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China in the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information related to position data is provided in the report.

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton inventory reduction during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Directory Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 24, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; the棉纱 import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% from the previous month and 3.10% from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 27.315 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.22% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.13% from the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in the country was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of July 27, the budding rate of cotton in the United States was 80%, 6% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8% behind the same period last year and 2% behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 6 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US upland cotton for the 24/25 season was 8,868 tons, significantly higher than the average of the past four weeks; the shipment of upland cotton was 52,367 tons, an increase of 25% from the previous week and 10% from the average of the past four weeks; the net signing of Pima cotton was 23 tons, the shipment of Pima cotton was 1,973 tons, the signing of new - season upland cotton was 16,261 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 1,134 tons [1]. Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of July 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.45% from the previous month and 13.86% from the same period last year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% from the previous month and 6.31% from the same period last year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% from the previous month and an increase of 1.23% from the same period last year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous month and an increase of 7.59% from the same period last year [1]. Futures Market - **Cotton Futures**: The closing prices of Zhengmian 01, 05, and 09 were 13,785 yuan, 13,730 yuan, and 13,585 yuan respectively, with weekly declines of 330 yuan (-2.34%), 310 yuan (-2.21%), and 585 yuan (-4.13%) [21][24]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of CC Index 3128B, CC Index 2227B, and CC Index 2129B were 15,580 yuan, 13,670 yuan, and 15,873 yuan respectively, with increases of 31 yuan (0.2%), 32 yuan (0.23%), and 7 yuan (0.04%) [24]. - **Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 65 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 125 yuan, an increase of 295 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 190 yuan, a decrease of 285 yuan [24]. - **Import Prices**: The price of FC Index M was 13,738 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan (0.33%); the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,230 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan (0.05%) [24]. - **Cotton Yarn**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 19,740 yuan, a weekly decline of 630 yuan (-3.09%); the spot price was 20,670 yuan, a decline of 70 yuan (-0.34%) [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in cotton futures prices, with the domestic and international market showing mixed signals and a lack of clear direction [1] - As of Friday's close, cotton futures for the 2509 contract were reported at 14,170 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% [1] - The weighted average price of cotton in the domestic market was 15,549 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 41 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Internationally, the USDA reported a significant drop in weekly cancellations of U.S. cotton contracts for the 2024/25 season, totaling 0.74 million tons, which is a substantial decrease compared to previous weeks [1] - The export volume of cotton products from China for June 2025 was 628,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4.28% [1] - The market analysis suggests that the global cotton supply for the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose due to increased production in Brazil and China, despite a tight domestic inventory situation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: Trade tariffs imposed by the US on most countries increase market uncertainty and may lead to inflation, supporting a rebound in cotton prices. However, the latest USDA export data shows that export pressure persists, constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. The expected increase in supply also exerts pressure on cotton prices [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton prices are rising strongly, supported by tight domestic cotton inventories. Cotton prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the downstream operating rate is still declining, spinning profit losses are increasing, and yarn inventories are accumulating, which is unfavorable for raw material procurement. Cotton prices face pressure from weakening demand and profit - taking by funds at high levels. The issue of Sino - US trade tariffs will gradually increase market attention and price volatility [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview Market Price Situation - Futures closing prices (active) of NYBOT 2 - grade cotton increased from 67.42 to 68.76, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%, and are expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM) rose from 75.28 to 76.38, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract increased from 13,885 to 14,270, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound. The international cotton market is still in a downward trend due to demand concerns, while the domestic market is relatively strong because of lower year - on - year inventories [5]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) rose from 15,266 to 15,508, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) increased from 13,597 to 13,815, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) rose from 20,490 to 20,740, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - Cotton spot import profit increased from 1,669 to 1,693, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton futures import profit increased from 288 to 455, a week - on - week increase of 57.99%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton yarn import profit increased from - 1,524 to - 1,393, a week - on - week increase of 8.60%, but it remains weak [5]. - Cotton basis decreased from 1,420 to 1,238, a week - on - week decrease of 12.82%, and is expected to remain strong in the short term but gradually weaken [5]. - Cotton yarn basis decreased from 400 to 220, a week - on - week decrease of 45.00%, and is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [5]. Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, global cotton production increased from 25.5038 million tons to 25.8156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, and the next - year production forecast is upward - adjusted; global cotton inventory increased from 16.7434 million tons to 16.8557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 65.22% to 65.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%, which is bearish for the market. The weekly net sales of US cotton decreased from 255,000 tons to 341,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.08%, which also exerts pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Domestic market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly from 6.54 million tons to 6.758 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%. Commercial cotton inventory decreased from 3.4587 million tons to 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18%. Cotton imports decreased from 40,000 tons to 30,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The downstream operating rate decreased from 68.39% to 68.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. Textile exports increased from $26.20951 billion to $27.314921 billion, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%, but there are concerns about future exports [6]. 2. Spot Market Prices and Spreads - Spot cotton and yarn price trends: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B), the International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM), the China Yarn Price Index, and the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) all showed upward trends [5][13][14][15][16]. - Basis: This week, the cotton basis rebounded, while the cotton yarn basis showed a volatile downward trend [18]. - Cotton and cotton yarn internal - external spreads: The document presents the trends of import cotton prices, internal - external cotton spreads, import yarn prices, and internal - external yarn spreads [22]. 3. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA supply - demand data (July): Global cotton production and ending inventory are upward - adjusted, which is bearish for the market [25]. - International market: US upland cotton export shipments and contracts decreased [28]. 4. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton market: According to the USDA July forecast, both supply and demand are expected to decline [32]. - Domestic cotton market: Commercial inventories are in a destocking state, and port inventories are declining at an accelerated pace [35]. - Domestic cotton market: Cotton imports are slowing down [38]. - Domestic textile enterprises: The operating rate is decreasing, yarn inventories are rising, and cotton raw material inventories are decreasing [41]. - Domestic cotton spinning: Imports have not increased significantly, while textile exports are not bad [44]. 5. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB is slowly appreciating [48].