1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive, with expected consumption of 2500 million tons and production of 2480 million tons in the 26/27 global market. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by over 10%. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn also showed growth [4]. - The basis is positive as the spot price of 3128b cotton has an average national price of 16732, with a basis of 1377 (09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures [4]. - The inventory situation is mixed. The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 annual report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 829 million tons, which is a negative factor. However, the overall market has positive expectations due to factors like the traditional peak season and improved Sino - US relations [4]. - The market outlook is that the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract. The support level is around 15000, and the resistance level is around 15700. A trading strategy of range - bound operation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ICAC predicts 2500 million tons of global consumption and 2480 million tons of production in the 26/27 season. In 2026, the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang may be reduced by over 10%. The USDA's March report shows a production of 2634.3 million tons, consumption of 2581.7 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1663.1 million tons in the 25/26 season. From January to February, the export of textiles and clothing was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China imported 37 million tons of cotton and 29 million tons of cotton yarn during this period, with year - on - year increases of 41% and 8 million tons respectively. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 season report estimates a production of 664 million tons, an import of 140 million tons, a consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of 3128b cotton has a national average of 16732, with a basis of 1377 (09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 annual report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 829 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is long - biased, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The textile export from January to February was good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract. The support level is around 15000, and the resistance level is around 15700. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast** (March): In the 25/26 season, the total production is 2634.3 million tons, the total consumption is 2581.7 million tons, the total import is 956 million tons, the total export is 956.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1663.1 million tons [10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, the production is expected to be 2480 million tons (a 4% decrease), the consumption is 2500 million tons (a 0.7% decrease), the beginning inventory is 1677.7 million tons (a 5.6% increase), the ending inventory is 1660 million tons (a 1% decrease), the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40% (a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease), the trade volume is 960 million tons (a 1% decrease), the yield per unit is 822 kg/hectare (a 1.6% decrease), and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares (a 0.7% decrease) [12]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, the production is 664 million tons, the import is 140 million tons, the consumption is 760 million tons, and the ending inventory is 829 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Demand Shows Decent Performance, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Upward Bias [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly upward - biased trend in the short term. The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and investors can consider building long positions on dips [8][25][38] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decrease. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4%, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and that of Pima cotton was 103.8%, a 14% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 million tons, slightly higher than the production forecast of 3.03 million tons [8] - **US Cotton Growing Conditions**: As of March 10, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 229, a decrease of 3 from the previous week and an increase of 97 year - on - year. The drought index in Texas was 253, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and an increase of 65 year - on - year. Drought in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to continue from March to May, and may intensify in the central - western regions and ease in the eastern regions [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 from the previous week, or 30,000 tons [8] - **Brazil**: The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that this year's cotton production in Brazil will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The output of Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA March global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of new cotton was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a 12.03% year - on - year increase. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a 12.06% year - on - year increase. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 million tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [26] - **Demand Side**: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 76%, a 3.83% increase from the previous week [26] - **Overall**: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the downstream industries resuming work, there are certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support [26] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current price difference between domestic and international cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is around 2,900 yuan/ton (about 3,900 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff), which is conducive to imports. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors. The global cotton production in the USDA annual report was adjusted down by 3%. Overall supply is relatively tight, and if consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved [38] - **Single - side**: It is expected that the US cotton price will fluctuate slightly upward in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. Investors can consider building long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [38] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [38] - **Options**: Wait and see [38] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Difference**: The report provides historical data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton under the 1% tariff, as well as the price difference between the September and January contracts [41][42] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory [44] - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton and the basis of cotton yarn C32S spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a slightly bullish outlook for cotton. The analysis is based on various factors such as global and domestic supply - demand, market trends, and external factors. The 1 - 2 month textile exports were strong, it's entering the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and the reduction of US tariffs and the improvement of Sino - US relations are beneficial to textile exports [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review There is no information about the previous day review in the provided content. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts global consumption of 25 million tons and production of 24.8 million tons in the 26/27 season. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by over 10%. USDA's March report shows a 25/26 annual production of 26.343 million tons, consumption of 25.817 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 annual forecast shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,848, and the basis is 1303 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 annual forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The good textile exports from January to February, the arrival of the traditional peak season, the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations are all positive for textile exports. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory among different countries [9][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons (a 4% decrease), consumption is 25 million tons (a 0.7% decrease), the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons (a 1% decrease), and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4% (a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease) [11]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 3.5. Position Data There is no information about position data in the provided content.

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market. Overall, the market has both positive and negative factors. Positively, the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to reduce by over 10%, there is pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment, the US tariffs on cotton exports have been reduced, Sino - US relations have eased, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are approaching. Negatively, overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton has entered the market, and it is currently in the traditional consumption off - season. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts 25 million tons of global consumption and 24.8 million tons of production for the 26/27 season. In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area regulation may lead to a reduction of over 10%. USDA's February report shows 26.096 million tons of production, 25.847 million tons of consumption, and 16.353 million tons of ending inventory for the 25/26 season. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a 7.4% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in December were 180,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase, and棉纱 imports were 170,000 tons, a 13.33% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season shows 6.64 million tons of production, 1.4 million tons of imports, 7.6 million tons of consumption, and 8.29 million tons of ending inventory [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,583, with a basis of 1333 (for the 05 contract), indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season shows 8.29 million tons of ending inventory, which is a negative factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, still considered a positive factor [4]. - **Expectation**: With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" for cotton, the reduction of US tariffs, and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total production in 2025/26 is 26.096 million tons, with a 1% year - on - year increase; the total consumption is 25.847 million tons, with a slight year - on - year decrease; the total ending inventory is 16.353 million tons, with a 2% year - on - year increase. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: For the 2025/26 season, the production is 6.64 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, and the main contract 05 should pay attention to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,633, and the basis is 1408 (05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season to be 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: Zhengzhou cotton's short - term bullish factors are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, and the main contract 05 should pay attention to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3.3. Today's Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenished inventory before the Spring Festival. The export tariff to the US has been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been put on the market. Currently, it is the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, imports are 9.516 million tons, exports are 9.517 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the planting area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, cotton prices hit a new high, with relatively favorable fundamentals. The US court halted the current tariffs, effectively reducing export tariffs to the US. However, after the price increase, some early low - position long positions took profits and left the market, weakening the upward momentum. - The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to be reduced by more than 10%. According to the USDA February report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. - In the short term, the positive factors for Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fully reflected, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial for textile exports. Investors with long positions in cotton can reduce their positions to take profits, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the holiday, cotton prices hit a new high. The US court halted current tariffs, reducing export tariffs to the US. Some early low - position long positions took profits after the price increase, weakening the upward momentum. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to be reduced by more than 10%. There are various data on global and Chinese cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports. [4] 3.2 Daily Prompt - Positive factors include the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 by over 10%, pre - holiday downstream replenishment, reduced export tariffs to the US, improved Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April". Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season. [5][6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. There are also detailed data on production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries such as China, India, the US, etc. [9][10] - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: For the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, the import volume is 9.71442 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, the export volume is 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65. [12] - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 25/26 season, China's cotton sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2,229 kg/ha, the production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound. [14] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) continuing to rise is relatively high. The supply in the new year is tightening, the commercial inventory has turned downward, and the reduction in the comprehensive tariff calculation has boosted exports. However, two major risks should be noted: the implementation of the new US tariff policy may change the global cotton trade pattern, and the continuous increase in Brazilian cotton supply may suppress the upward movement of the outer - market prices, and the large price difference between the inner and outer markets will limit the upward space of Zhengmian. [1][30] - The USDA February supply - demand monthly report has a bearish impact, but the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, demand to increase, and ending inventory to decline in the new year. The market is waiting for a clear signal from the demand side, and the overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, Zhengmian fluctuated slightly and then broke through to the upside. After the Spring Festival, boosted by international market news, it broke through the previous trading range and reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton. [3] - The international cotton market first declined and then rose in February. At the beginning of February, US cotton was weak, reaching a minimum of 62.86 cents/pound. After the USDA outlook forum released a tightening forecast for the new - year international cotton market supply - demand situation and the weak US dollar provided support, US cotton rose to a maximum of 66.38 cents/pound. [3] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Commercial and Industrial Inventory - In January 2026, the domestic cotton inventory showed the characteristics of "commercial de - stocking and industrial restocking", with a more prominent differentiation in the inventory structure. As of February 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from 5.7887 million tons on January 31. The de - stocking pace in Xinjiang was significantly faster than that in the inland. The industrial inventory increased moderately from 1.001 million tons at the end of January to 1.0292 million tons in the first half of February. [6] 3.2.2 Price Difference between Domestic and International Cotton - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has been widening with a pattern of "strong domestic and weak international". As of February 25, the duty - paid cost of medium - quality imported cotton within the quota (1% tariff) was about 12,782 yuan/ton, 3,547 yuan/ton lower than the price of domestic 3128B cotton. The duty - paid cost of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was about 13,840 yuan/ton, 2,489 yuan/ton lower than domestic cotton, and the price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. The expected decrease in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the impact of Brazilian cotton exports on the outer - market, and the strong purchasing intention of domestic textile enterprises after the Spring Festival are the main driving factors. The price difference expansion has opened the import profit window, and China's cotton imports in the 2026/27 season are expected to increase to 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0%. In the short term, the increase in imported cotton arrivals may suppress the upward movement of the inner - market, but in the long - term, the price difference is expected to narrow to within 2,000 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.3 Downstream Market - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic textile enterprises was in an orderly manner, with the start - up rate showing the characteristics of "leading in Xinjiang, following in East China, and lagging in South China". As of February 20, the start - up rate of textile enterprises was 18.7%, and as of February 13, the start - up rate of weaving enterprises was 14%. The release of downstream demand needs to be verified. Spinning enterprises are still cautious in restocking, and the "peak season" orders in March and April have not been fully realized. The finished product inventory of weaving enterprises has increased, and the inventory of weaving enterprises is at the second - highest level in five years. [13][15] 3.2.4 Tariff Policy - Since January 2026, the US tariff policy on Chinese textile and clothing has improved marginally, with the comprehensive tariff level dropping from 18.2% to 15.7%, covering intermediate products such as pure cotton yarn and grey cloth and household textile products, which directly reduces the export cost of enterprises. In the long run, the improvement of the tariff policy is expected to increase the export amount of cotton textiles in 2026, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the release of production capacity of Southeast Asian competitors may still restrict the recovery of exports. [18] 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Report - The USDA February supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 92,000 tons to 26.096 million tons, consumption decreased by 44,000 tons to 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136,000 tons to 16.353 million tons. The core change in the supply side is concentrated in China, and the main feature on the demand side is the reduction in consumption in Pakistan. [22] 3.3.2 US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the predicted total export volume for the year (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the total signed volume for the year. The signing volume has declined slightly, with a significant decline in Vietnam's signing, while signing in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan has continued to grow. The overall shipment rhythm is stable. The signing and shipment of Pima cotton have remained stable, and the cumulative signing progress is currently slow, but it is expected to accelerate in the future. [25] 3.3.3 US Trade Policy - Since 2025, the US has shifted its textile and clothing trade policy towards South Asia from high - pressure suppression to targeted concessions and raw - material binding, aiming to reshape the global cotton - textile supply chain centered on US cotton. In February 2026, the US reached tariff agreements with Bangladesh and India, reducing the benchmark tariff rate and setting up a zero - tariff mechanism for using US cotton, which will significantly enhance the export competitiveness of South Asian textiles, lock in the long - term demand for US cotton, and weaken the substitution space of Indian and Brazilian cotton. [29] 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - For the domestic market, Zhengmian is likely to continue rising. Operators are advised to make long - term layouts based on the fundamentals, pay attention to the progress of domestic resumption of work, US cotton export sales data, and the implementation of tariff policies. The main operation idea is to buy on dips, with the upper - limit pressure reference at 16,000 yuan/ton. [1][30] - For the international market, although the USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengmian. [2][30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is considered neutral. The main contract 05 of cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions and focus on intraday short - term trading on the last trading day before the festival [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not mentioned in the provided content 3.2 Daily Tips - The main contract 05 of cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions and focus on intraday short - term trading on the last trading day before the festival [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not mentioned in the provided content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - related**: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be regulated with a possible reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4] - **Price - related**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,069, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1,279, indicating a premium over futures [6] - **Inventory - related**: The expected ending inventory in December of the 2025/2026 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.35 million tons [6] - **Other factors**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The long - short position of the main contract is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6] 3.5 Position Data - Not mentioned in the provided content

Report Information - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bullish factor of the decline in new cotton area in 2026 has been partially reflected, which is bullish for the price of Zhengzhou Cotton in the long term. Coupled with factors such as the purchase cost of lint cotton and the relatively fast sales progress this year, the support for Zhengzhou Cotton around 14,500 yuan/ton is relatively obvious [4]. - In the short term, there is no strong driving force in the industrial aspect itself, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the medium and long term, the center still has room to move up [4]. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and relevant cotton - related policies [4] Summary by Content 1. US Cotton Signing and Export Situation - As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% increase from the previous week, a 5% decrease from the four - week average, and an 11% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, Vietnam signed 12,200 tons, Pakistan 10,900 tons, and China 8,300 tons [5][22]. - In the 2025/26 season, the total signing and sales progress of US cotton is 70%, 15 percentage points slower than the average of the same period in the past four years; the cumulative export shipment progress is 50%, 9 percentage points faster than the average of the same period in the past four years. China's total signing volume is 100,000 tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease, and Vietnam's total signing volume is 590,000 tons, a 56% year - on - year increase [5] 2. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Supply - Demand Report - Due to the lag in sales, the February USDA report reduced the US cotton export forecast by 200,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by the same amount accordingly. It also raised the forecast of China's cotton production by 108,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The overall adjustment is basically in line with market expectations and has little impact on the price trends of ICE and ZCE futures [6] 3. Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Cotton - Since the end of last year, the basis between domestic and foreign cotton has continued to widen. As of this Wednesday, the price difference between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton price index within 1% tariff has reached 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the sliding - scale tariff has reached 2,400 yuan/ton. The relatively high domestic - foreign price difference limits the increase of Zhengzhou Cotton [7] 4. Price and Inventory Data - **Cotton and Yarn Price Changes**: - As of this Wednesday, the 328 cotton spot price index is 16,029 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 14,745 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 1,284 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 118 yuan/ton [49]. - The C32S yarn price index is 21,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn is 20,590 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of - 5 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 930 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 70 yuan/ton [49]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: - This Wednesday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is 2,418 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 156 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton within 1% tariff is 3,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 214 yuan/ton [52]. - The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price is - 37 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [52]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: - This Wednesday, on the futures market, the spread between the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 5,845 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 70 yuan/ton [56]. - The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn is - 1,791 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude is reduced by 36 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou Cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 11,969 lots; the total of Zhengzhou Yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 7 lots [63]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton production and ending inventory estimates are increased, while the consumption estimate is decreased, which is relatively bearish for the cotton market [2]. - In the domestic market, the supply of domestic and imported cotton is sufficient, and the available circulation volume has increased significantly. The inventory of imported cotton at ports is increasing, and downstream textile enterprises are gradually shutting down for holidays, resulting in a significant increase in yarn inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the approaching long - holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 121,791 hands, down 1,663 hands; main contract open interest of cotton is 696,412 hands, down 3,860 hands; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,746 sheets, up 60 sheets; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2]. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position is - 925 hands, up 136 hands; main contract open interest of cotton yarn is 11,468 hands, down 438 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 21,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,418 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,615 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 20,987 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 22,547 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) is 5,491 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 848 thousand tons, down 200 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume is 180 thousand tons, up 60 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit is 2,414 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5784.7 thousand tons, up 1101.1 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; grey fabric inventory days are 33.76 days, up 1.42 days [2]. - Cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; yarn output is 2132 thousand tons, up 93 thousand tons [2]. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton is 13.68%, down 0.4%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton is 13.67%, down 0.41% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.65%, down 0.29%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.48%, up 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture released the February global cotton supply - demand report. The 2025/26 US cotton production forecast is 3.0307 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. US consumption is estimated to remain at 348,400 tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 43,500 tons to 958,000 tons [2]. - ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Tuesday. Due to the reduction of global cotton demand and export volume estimates in the USDA monthly supply - demand report, cotton prices gave back previous gains. The ICE May cotton futures contract rose 0.55 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 63.78 cents per pound [2]. - The February global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 26.096 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from the previous period. Global consumption is reduced by 44,000 tons to 25.848 million tons, and global ending inventory is increased by 137,000 tons to 16.353 million tons [2].