6月USDA影响偏多，短期郑棉仍处震荡 棉花周报 20250616 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meis ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 棉花：震荡运行等待基本面驱动 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 5 月 9 日当周，ICE 棉花震荡下行，整体跌幅不大，旧作 07 合约跌幅较新作 12 月合约大。一方 面，ICE 棉花受外部市场影响，美元走强以及美国和其他国家之间贸易形势的不确定性压制 ICE 棉花；另 一方面，在周末中美代表会谈，以及在下周美国农业部新作的第一份供需报告前，市场持观望态度。 国内纺织产业的经营情况还算稳定，虽然下游整体信心偏弱，但是开机率和利润情况基本维持，成品 库存有所上升但目前压力仍不大。 国内棉花期货继续受到弱需求预期和外部市场因素影响，现货货权比较集中以及下游的刚需采购需求 令基差维持坚挺，但是由于预期新疆面积继续增长且当前天气情况较理想，所以供应端缺乏上涨驱动；对 中长期需求前景的不乐观，以及短期内下游已经做了原料补库，导致需求端对棉花期货的提振也非常有 限；外部市场方面，对美国贸易协议的乐观预期令市场情绪好转，推动棉花期货反弹，但是暂时来看外部 市场仍然缺乏实质性利好，局部的地缘政治冲突还在发生，全 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 ICAC:5月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费略增，偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比 增12.4%。3月份我国棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。 农村部4月24/25年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。 偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14135，基差1235（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 ICAC:5月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费略增，偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比 增12.4%。3月份我国棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。 农村部4月24/25年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。 偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14100，基差1200（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。3月份我国棉花 进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14113，基差1368（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term cotton prices may face pressure near the gap. Although the macro - environment is expected to improve, the fundamentals are weak and macro uncertainties remain, so the short - term outlook for cotton prices is not optimistic [3][37] - The cotton spinning market continues to fluctuate, with the off - season gradually emerging. Demand has insufficient pulling power on cotton prices [3][10] Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 1. Weekly Data Overview - From April 17 to April 25, the CRB commodity price index rose from 296.38 to 298.46, a cumulative increase of 2.08 points, or 0.70%. The Wenhua Commodity Index increased from April 18 to April 25, with an increase of 1.47, or 0.93%. The ICE cotton futures main 07 contract rose from 67.11 to 68.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1.59 cents/pound, or 2.37%. The Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract rose from 12885 to 12990 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,000 lots to 572,000 lots [2][6][8] - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold and crude oil prices declined, while the prices of some agricultural products such as US soybeans rose [8] 2. Cotton Import Quotations in Various Countries - From April 18 to April 25, the CNF quotations of imported cotton in various countries increased, and the corresponding after - tax prices also increased [9] Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 1. Trend of Textile Mainstream Raw Materials - On April 25, compared with April 18, the price centers of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and CCI3128 showed mixed trends [14] 2. Trend of Cotton Yarn Prices - On April 25, except for R30S, the price centers of domestic yarns decreased compared with April 18. The price centers of foreign yarns in RMB terms also decreased, while the overall price center of foreign yarns remained unchanged [17][21][22] 3. Comparison of Domestic Cotton Futures and Spot Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On April 25, the spot price index and the difference between the price of foreign cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased. The difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the price of foreign cotton under the sliding - scale duty also increased. The difference between domestic and foreign yarns and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton also increased [24][25][28] Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market 1. Situation of Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of April 25, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 10,555 lots (454,000 tons), the valid forecasts were 1,938 lots (83,000 tons), and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 537,000 tons, a decrease from April 18 [31] 2. Analysis of the Difference between Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and Spot Prices - On April 25, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1234 yuan/ton, a decrease from April 18, indicating that the difference between futures and spot prices had narrowed [33] 3. Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices - Macroscopically, Trump's remarks and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut expectations have boosted market confidence. Domestically, positive policies such as the issuance of special treasury bonds and the continuation of MLF have been implemented [34] - In terms of supply, the total commercial cotton inventory continues to decline, and domestic new cotton sowing is in the later stage, expected to end by the end of April. In terms of demand, the off - season of the downstream market has emerged, demand has insufficient pulling power on cotton prices, and the industry's mentality is cautious [3][35][37] - Technically, the MACD red column of the Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract is expanding, DIFF and DEA are about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also about to form a golden cross, but the technical indicators are weak [39] Part IV: Analysis of the International Market 1. Export Dynamics of US Cotton - From April 11 - 17, the net signing volume of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton decreased compared with the previous week, and the shipment volume also decreased. The net signing and shipment volumes of Pima cotton increased. As of April 17, 2025, the cumulative net signing volume of US 2024/25 annual cotton exports reached 107.55% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 68.31% [43] - As of April 15, the net long position of funds in CFTC increased by 5,622 lots compared with the previous week [44] 2. Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures - On April 25, the ICE cotton futures main 07 contract rose by 2.37% compared with April 17. Technically, the MACD red column is expanding, DIFF and DEA are about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also about to form a golden cross, but the technical indicators are weak [45] Part V: Operation Suggestions - It is advisable for upstream cotton processing enterprises to conduct batch point - pricing of their existing lint inventories when the price rebounds - Downstream textile enterprises should purchase raw materials in batches according to order situations and can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of lint procurement [47]