资金扰动，郑棉波动加剧 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2026/1/30 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 资金扰动，郑棉波动加剧 核心观点 临近春节，内地下游开机率稳中下滑、新疆地区开机率持稳；市场波动较大，带动郑棉波动。新年度 面积下降预期及收购成本支撑，下方价格坚挺；纱厂原材料库存高位，内外价差较高限制上方高度。预计 近期震荡为主，关注资金面和宏观面。 巴西棉种植进度加快 根据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB统计，截至1月24日巴西2025/26年度棉花种植完成 60.6%，环比增加24.3个百分点，同比块14.3个百分点。在一茬大豆采收完成，马托格罗索州二茬大豆、棉 花、玉米播种均明显提速。 澳大利亚方面，产量暂未有明显调整预期。据Cotlook评估，因种植面积下降，澳大利亚本季棉花产量 预计保持在440万包（约合100万吨），较上一产季下降约18%。该评估与美农1月供需报告产量及降幅较为 吻合。 截止1月22日当周，本年度美棉累计签约出口177.22万吨，占年度预测总出口量的68%，周环比增加2 个百年分点，较过去三年同期均值偏慢15个百分点；累计装运85.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The global cotton supply side is experiencing a "double reduction" in exports from Brazil and the United States. The bottom characteristics of US cotton prices are clear under the dual signals of cost inversion and basis repair, and an upward channel for cotton prices is expected to open [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side Contraction Expectation Continues to Strengthen - **Brazil**: As the world's largest cotton exporter, it ends a 5 - year capacity expansion. The CONAB report on January 15 predicts a 6.3% year - on - year decrease in cotton production in 25/26, with continuous downward revisions since October 2025. The core producing state of Mato Grosso is expected to have a more radical production cut of 14.5% [3]. - **United States**: The latest WASDE report on January 12 significantly revises down the 25/26 cotton yield per unit by 7.8%, reduces production by 2.5%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio drops, significantly alleviating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Hard Logic Behind the Production Cut - **Brazilian farmers' profit situation**: Brazilian cotton farmers face a loss with a cost - return rate of - 15.5%, while the competing second - season corn still has an 8.4% return, and the operating cost of corn is only one - third of that of cotton [4]. - **Sowing progress**: Brazil's current sowing rate is only 8.1% (compared to 14.2% in the same period last year). Missing the best growth period for cotton will further strengthen the production cut expectation [4]. 3. Clear Bottoming of US Cotton Prices - **Cost inversion**: The current price (~65 cents/pound) is significantly lower than the average US planting cost (~80 cents/pound) and approaches the policy mortgage interest rate (54.4 cents/pound), with very limited downward space [5]. - **Basis signal**: The basis of basic - grade cotton is at a historical low. High - quality cotton in January has shown a positive basis, which is judged as a leading signal for a medium - term upward price movement [5]. - **Investment advice**: With the implementation of the production cut expectation and the stricter traceability of clothing exports to the United States, the procurement concentration of US cotton is expected to increase. It is recommended to focus on [Bailong Eastern Co., Ltd.], and related target [Texhong International Group]. The low - cost cotton inventory held by these companies will release significant profit elasticity during the upward cycle of cotton prices, and the gross profit margin is expected to be repaired in a positive basis environment [5]. Historical US Cotton Price Analysis - The historical US cotton price has fluctuated greatly due to various factors such as events, policies, and climate. For example, in 2011, the cotton price reached a new high due to factors such as China's cotton purchase and storage policy, India's export ban, and Pakistan's floods [8]. Global Cotton Production and Export Situation - **24/25 Global Top Ten Cotton - Producing Countries**: The top four cotton - producing countries (China, India, Brazil, and the United States) account for about 73% of the total global output. China and India mainly consume their output domestically, while Brazil and the United States export their output [19]. - **24/25 Global Top Ten Cotton - Exporting Countries**: Brazil and the United States together account for nearly 60% of the global cotton export volume. The change in Brazil's supply - demand structure will have a significant impact on the trend of US cotton prices [22]. - **Production Growth of Top Ten Cotton - Exporting Countries**: From 20/21 - 24/25, the production growth rates of different countries vary. For example, Mali has a 257% growth rate, while India has a - 16% growth rate [24]. US Cotton Situation - **25/26 Production Forecast**: Despite the expected increase in the harvested area of US 25/26 cotton, the yield per unit is significantly reduced by 7.8%, resulting in a 2.5% decrease in production compared to the December forecast and a 3.4% decrease compared to 2024/25. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreases [27]. - **Export Market Change**: In 2018, affected by the Sino - US trade friction, Vietnam became the largest importer of US cotton. In 2024, China regained the top position. It is expected that Southeast Asian countries may increase their procurement of US cotton [29]. Brazilian Cotton Situation - **25/26 Supply and Demand Forecast**: The CONAB report on January 15, 2026, predicts that Brazil's 25/26 cotton planting area will decrease by 2.8% compared to 2024/25, and the output is expected to be 3.82 million tons, a 6.3% decrease from the October 2025 forecast [31]. - **Sowing and Yield**: The sowing rate and yield of Brazilian cottonseeds in 25/26 are lower than last year. The sowing rate is 31.9%, 1.6 percentage points lower than 24/25, and the expected output of cottonseeds in 25/26 is down 6.3% year - on - year and 3.6% month - on - month [34]. - **Mato Grosso State**: The IMEA has significantly reduced the 25/26 planting area in Mato Grosso State by 7.3%, and the total lint output is expected to decrease by 14.5% due to area reduction and yield per unit returning to the average [38]. - **Profit Analysis**: Brazilian cotton planting in the 25/26 season has a cost - return rate of - 15.5%. Competing second - season corn has a better profit situation, and there is a possibility of farmers switching to corn planting. In addition, the current price of Brazilian lint is lower than the US cotton futures price, and the basis decline is widening [40].

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have shown a weak oscillating trend since the fourth quarter, with the main contract dipping to a low of 63 cents per pound due to the U.S. government shutdown causing data absence and global trade uncertainties, as well as unfavorable changes in U.S. cotton production estimates and export conditions [1] - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a slight increase in global cotton ending stocks, with initial stocks raised by 120,000 bales, production estimates reduced by 290,000 bales, and consumption estimates lowered by 270,000 bales, resulting in a net increase of 40,000 bales in ending stocks, reflecting overall stability [2] - The U.S. cotton production estimate was raised by 150,000 bales, while consumption was reduced by 100,000 bales, leading to a 200,000 bale increase in ending stocks, totaling 4.5 million bales, with a notable increase in the beginning stocks contributing to this rise [3] Group 2 - The U.S. weekly export report shows a significant increase in weekly cotton contracts, with a total of 66,300 tons signed, marking a 258% week-over-week increase and a 28% year-over-year increase, with Vietnam and Mexico being the largest buyers [4] - Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to decrease due to falling prices and adverse weather conditions affecting planting schedules, with the Mato Grosso state predicting a production of 2.58 million tons, a decrease from previous estimates [5] - In contrast, Pakistan's spinning mills are operating at a high rate, while Indian and Vietnamese mills are experiencing a downward trend in operating rates, with Pakistan's mills performing at their highest levels in three years [6][7] Group 3 - The EU's textile and apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the U.S. increased by 10.68% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with a total import value of €436.75 billion, while U.S. textile and apparel imports showed a slight decline in August [8] - The USDA's December report forecasts China's cotton production for 2025/2026 at 7.3 million tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, while India's production is estimated at 5.22 million tons, indicating limited adjustment potential for both countries [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]