生意社01月04日讯玖龙纸业重庆基地：自2026年1月10日起，灰底白板纸价格上调50元/吨；自2026年1 月20日起，灰底白板纸价格上调50元/吨。自2026年1月15日起，瓦楞纸价格上调50元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 白板纸，多空评分：2 玖龙纸业宣布灰底白板纸价格分两次上调共100元/吨，表明行业龙头主动提价，反映需求强劲或成本压 力上升，对现货价格构成重大利好，可能带动市场整体涨价预期。 瓦楞纸价格上调50元/吨，显示供需关系改善，企业提价行为对现货价格有一般利好影响，但幅度相对 较小，需关注后续市场接受度。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 白板纸，多空评分：2 玖龙纸业宣布灰底白板纸价格分两次上调共100元/吨，表明行业龙头主动提价，反映需求强劲或成本压 力上升，对现货价格构成重大利好，可能带动市场整体涨价预期。 瓦楞纸，多空评分：1 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's FY25 results met expectations, with a revenue increase of 6.3% YoY to Rmb63.24 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb1.77 billion, reflecting a significant 176% HoH increase in 2HFY25 [1]. Sales and Production Trends - The company reported a total sales volume increase of 10% YoY to 21.5 million tonnes in FY25, driven by growth in kraft paper (+1.10 million tonnes), ivory board (+500,000 tonnes), and P&W paper (+400,000 tonnes) [1]. - For FY26, the company has commissioned 1.2 million tonnes of ivory board paper, 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper, and 700,000 tonnes of chemical pulp in 1HFY26, with plans for an additional 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper within the year [2]. - Forecasts indicate paper production and sales volume will increase by over 5% YoY in FY26, with plans to commission 700,000 tonnes of ivory board paper in Chongqing and another 500,000 tonnes in Tianjin in 1HFY27 [3]. Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a near-term recovery in linerboard and corrugated board prices, estimating profit per tonne (before interest on perpetual bonds) at Rmb59 in 1HFY25 and Rmb151 in 2HFY25, with the latter benefiting from increased self-produced pulp output and lower thermal coal prices [4]. - Price hikes for linerboard and corrugated board have been progressing since July, supported by improving industry demand and rising domestic wastepaper prices, although costs per tonne have slightly increased due to rising coal and wastepaper prices [4]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Outlook - In FY25, the company's capex reached Rmb14.8 billion, a 15.7% YoY increase, while the debt-to-asset ratio rose by 1 percentage point YoY to 66%. For FY26, capex is guided at Rmb11 billion, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts [5]. - Following the implementation of cost-cutting and efficiency measures, earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 11% and 15% to Rmb2.75 billion and Rmb2.88 billion, respectively. The stock is currently trading at 0.5x and 0.4x P/B, with a target price increase of 17% to HK$7, indicating a 22% upside [5].