证券研究报告 港股通 太平洋航运 (2343 HK) 地缘风险溢价或将推升 26 年运价 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 水路运输 | 目标价(港币): | 3.50 | 太平洋航运公布 2025 年业绩：1）收入 20.8 亿美元，同比下滑 19.4%；2） 归母/扣非归母净利润 5,817 万美元/5,920 万美元，同比下滑 55.8%/48.1%。 归母净利低于我们的预期 7,767 万美元，主因公司日均运价低于我们预期。 利润大幅下滑主因 25 年全球散货市场表现疲软，运价同比下滑导致。公司 宣布年末每股派息 0.06 港币，全年分红率为 100%。展望 26 年，受当前中 东局势影响，市场对全球能源及贸易供应链中断的担忧加剧，我们认为战争 风险溢价或将导致干散运价大幅上涨，推升公司 26 年盈利。重申"买入"。 提高分红率最高至 100%，宣布 26 年股权回购方案 根据公司公告：1）自 2026 年起，公司修改分红政策为： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined to a two-week low, pressured by weak freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Performance - The BDI fell by 28 points, or 1.5%, to 1895 points, marking the lowest level since January 26 [1] - The Capesize Index (BCI) decreased by 85 points, or over 2.9%, to a two-week low of 2833 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels dropped by $776 to $22,189 [1] Group 2: Panamax and Supramax Vessel Performance - The Panamax Index (BPI) declined by 4 points, or 0.2%, to 1648 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $36 to $14,829 [1] - The Supramax Index (BSI) increased by 10 points, or 0.9%, to 1114 points [1] - The Handysize Index (BHSI) rose by 1 point to 639 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index remains stable with minor fluctuations in freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels, indicating a mixed performance in the dry bulk shipping market [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 1 point, or 0.06%, to 1762 points, with a cumulative rise of 12.4% for the week [1] - The Capesize vessel index decreased by 6 points, or 0.2%, to 2583 points, but has seen a cumulative increase of 16.1% this week [1] - The Panamax vessel index fell by 2 points, or 0.1%, to 1612 points, with a weekly cumulative rise of 10.6% [1] Group 2: Daily Earnings and Freight Rates - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels dropped by $48 to $19,928 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels decreased by $21 to $14,504 [1] - The Supramax vessel index rose by 7 points to 1026 points, with a weekly increase of 6.1% [1] - The Handysize vessel index increased by 2 points to 600 points [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index continues to rise, driven by increased freight rates across various vessel types [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 79 points, or 4.79%, to reach 1729 points, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The Capesize vessel index rose by 167 points, or 7%, to 2570 points [1] - The Panamax vessel index increased by 49 points, or 3.2%, to 1570 points [1] - The Supramax vessel index saw a rise of 13 points, reaching 983 points [1] - The Handysize vessel index increased by 2 points, reaching 591 points [1] Group 2: Daily Earnings - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels increased by $1511, reaching $19804 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $442, totaling $14130 [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has surged to its highest level in over a year, driven by a strong increase in the Capesize vessel index [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 85 points, or 4.18%, to reach 2120 points, marking the highest level since July 2024 [1] - The Capesize vessel index increased by 278 points, or 9.1%, to 3339 points, achieving a five-week high [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels rose by $2298, reaching $27688 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Indices - The Panamax vessel index decreased by 4 points, or 0.2%, to 1905 points, with daily earnings dropping by $40 to $17142 [1] - The Supramax vessel index fell by 16 points to 1313 points [1] - The Handysize vessel index increased by 4 points, reaching 682 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index halted a seven-day upward trend, experiencing a decline due to falling rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 36 points, or 1.8%, closing at 2016 points [1] - The Capesize vessel rate index fell by 103 points, or 3.3%, to 2981 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels dropped by $855, reaching $24,720 [1] Group 2: Panamax and Other Vessel Types - The Panamax vessel rate index decreased by 4 points, or 0.2%, to 1915 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $40, amounting to $17,232 [1] - The Supramax vessel rate index remained unchanged at 1346 points, while the Handysize vessel rate index increased by 2 points to 675 points [1]

Core Points - The Baltic Dry Index has declined due to a drop in freight rates for large vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 23 points, or 1.16%, to 1952 points [1] - The Capesize vessel index decreased by 71 points, or 1.9%, to 3660 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels dropped by $587 to $30,357 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Types - The Panamax vessel index decreased by 4 points, or 0.3%, to 1406 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $42 to $12,652 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 6 points to 945 points, marking the highest level in nearly two weeks [1] - The Handysize vessel index rose by 7 points to 614 points [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has reached an eight-month high, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping rates [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 7 points, or 0.4%, to 1975 points, marking the highest level since October 2 of the previous year [1] - The Capesize vessel index rose by 9 points, or 0.2%, to 3731 points, the highest since July 2024 [1] - The Panamax vessel index also saw an increase of 9 points, or 0.6%, reaching 1410 points, the highest in over ten weeks [1] Group 2: Daily Earnings - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels increased by $78 to $30,944 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $84 to $12,694 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 3 points to 939 points, the highest in nearly two weeks [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has increased, ending a three-day decline, driven by stronger demand for Capesize vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 4 points, or 0.3%, to a total of 1341 points [1] - The Capesize vessel index increased by 27 points, or 1.5%, reaching 1882 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels rose by $222, reaching $15,605 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Types - The Panamax vessel index decreased by 17 points, or 1.3%, to 1269 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $153, totaling $11,419 [1] - The Supramax vessel index declined by 2 points to 986 points, while the Handysize index increased by 10 points to 574 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index remained stable due to increased demand for smaller vessels, while demand for Capesize vessels decreased [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index closed unchanged at 1261 points [1] - The Capesize vessel index fell by 17 points, approximately 1%, to 1661 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by 139 yuan to 13774 USD [1] Group 2: Vessel Type Performance - The Panamax vessel index increased by 19 points, or 1.5%, to 1292 points, marking the highest level since April 7 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by 169 USD to 11629 USD [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 4 points, or 0.4%, to 954 points, the highest since April 8 [1] - The Handysize vessel index declined by 3 points to 566 points [1] Group 3: Market Activity - The Baltic Exchange was closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday [1]