证券研究报告 港股通 太平洋航运 (2343 HK) 地缘风险溢价或将推升 26 年运价 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 水路运输 | 目标价(港币): | 3.50 | 太平洋航运公布 2025 年业绩：1）收入 20.8 亿美元，同比下滑 19.4%；2） 归母/扣非归母净利润 5,817 万美元/5,920 万美元，同比下滑 55.8%/48.1%。 归母净利低于我们的预期 7,767 万美元，主因公司日均运价低于我们预期。 利润大幅下滑主因 25 年全球散货市场表现疲软，运价同比下滑导致。公司 宣布年末每股派息 0.06 港币，全年分红率为 100%。展望 26 年，受当前中 东局势影响，市场对全球能源及贸易供应链中断的担忧加剧，我们认为战争 风险溢价或将导致干散运价大幅上涨，推升公司 26 年盈利。重申"买入"。 提高分红率最高至 100%，宣布 26 年股权回购方案 根据公司公告：1）自 2026 年起，公司修改分红政策为： ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the recent selling pressure on Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) appears to be an overreaction relative to its fundamentals, reaffirming an "Overweight" rating with a target price adjusted from HKD 3.2 to HKD 2.7, reflecting stable TCE and ongoing fleet growth [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Factors - The recent weakness in the stock price is attributed to several factors, including the completion of the company's buyback program, market expectations of supply continuing to outpace demand leading to a weak outlook for next year, and a slowdown in Caravel's share acquisition, resulting in a lack of visible short-term catalysts [1] - Year-end profit-taking is also noted as a contributing factor to the stock's decline [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Although demand growth for Handysize bulk carriers is slowing, it is expected to maintain a positive growth rate of 2% year-on-year next year, which will support capacity utilization [1] - The aging fleet poses a growing constraint, with 14% of Handysize and 12% of Supramax vessels over 20 years old, indicating that a further market downturn could lead to asymmetric responses on the supply side [1] Group 3: Valuation and Risk-Reward Ratio - After adjusting the valuation and target price, the risk-reward ratio is now considered more favorable [1]