Core Viewpoint - VLCC freight rates have reached the highest level for September since 1990, with VLCCTD3cTCE hitting $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, and expected to maintain high levels in the following days [1][2] Group 1: VLCC Freight Rates - VLCCTD3cTCE reached $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, marking the best September freight rate since 1990, matching the peak from September 2004 [2] - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle Eastern cargoes expected for October, alongside the lowest available VLCC capacity in the past year [2] Group 2: Iron Ore Market - The Ximangdu iron ore project officially commenced operations on September 14, 2025, with the first batch of shipments expected in November 2025, potentially supporting the bulk shipping market from Q4 [3] - The project has iron ore reserves exceeding 2.25 billion tons, with an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, requiring at least 155 Capesize vessels for transportation, which is about 7.6% of the current Capesize fleet [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - With OPEC+ increasing oil production and the Ximangdu iron ore project coming online, combined with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve boosting global commodity demand, the oil and bulk shipping markets are expected to experience a positive cycle starting from Q4 2025 [4] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026), Haitong Development (603162), HNA Technology (600751), and Air China Ocean Shipping (833171) [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - VLCC freight rates have reached the highest level for September since 1990, with the VLCC TD3c TCE reaching $96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, and expected to rise further due to tight capacity [6] - The commencement of the West Simandou iron ore project is anticipated to support the bulk shipping market starting from Q4 2025, with an expected shipment volume of 2-3 million tons in 2025 [6] - Potential trade agreements between China and the U.S. could provide additional demand for oil and bulk shipping in Q4 2025 [6] - The combination of OPEC+ oil production increases and the West Simandou project, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to create a favorable environment for both oil and bulk shipping markets starting from Q4 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - VLCC freight rates are at a historical high for September, indicating strong demand and tight supply conditions [6] - The upcoming release of Middle Eastern cargoes and the lowest available VLCC capacity in the past year may lead to further increases in freight rates [6] West Simandou Project - The West Simandou iron ore project has officially commenced operations, with the first batch of shipments expected in November 2025 [6] - The project has significant iron ore reserves exceeding 2.25 billion tons and an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, requiring at least 155 Capesize vessels for transportation [6] Trade Relations Impact - Recent discussions between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump may pave the way for a trade agreement, potentially increasing oil and agricultural imports from the U.S. [6] - The reduction in tariffs could enhance shipping demand, particularly in the oil and bulk sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, Haitong Development, HNA Technology, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [6]

波罗的海干散货运价指数月线涨34% 金十期货7月31日讯，据外媒报道，波罗的海干散货运价指数小幅回升，创2月以来最佳月度表现。波罗 的海干散货运价指数较前一交易日上涨8点，或0.4%，报2003点。本月上涨34%。海岬型船运价指数上 涨53点或1.7%，至3239点，月线录得上涨。海岬型船日均获利上涨436美元，至26858美元。巴拿马型 船运价指数下滑30点，或1.8%，报1659点，7月攀升10.6%。巴拿马型船日均获利下跌274美元，至 14929美元。超灵便型散货船运价指数下跌3点或0.2%，至1268点，创7月中以来最低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index has declined to a one-week low due to a decrease in demand across all vessel types [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 117 points, or 5.26%, to 2109 points, marking the lowest level since July 22 [1] - The Capesize vessel index dropped by 298 points, or 7.9%, to 3476 points, also reaching a one-week low [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $2466, bringing the average to $28830 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Types - The Panamax vessel index declined by 57 points, or 3.2%, to 1741 points, the lowest since July 10 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $509, resulting in an average of $15671 [1] - The Supramax vessel index decreased by 8 points, or 0.6%, to 1281 points [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has surged to its highest level in over a year, driven by a strong increase in the Capesize vessel index [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 85 points, or 4.18%, to reach 2120 points, marking the highest level since July 2024 [1] - The Capesize vessel index increased by 278 points, or 9.1%, to 3339 points, achieving a five-week high [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels rose by $2298, reaching $27688 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Indices - The Panamax vessel index decreased by 4 points, or 0.2%, to 1905 points, with daily earnings dropping by $40 to $17142 [1] - The Supramax vessel index fell by 16 points to 1313 points [1] - The Handysize vessel index increased by 4 points, reaching 682 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index halted a seven-day upward trend, experiencing a decline due to falling rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 36 points, or 1.8%, closing at 2016 points [1] - The Capesize vessel rate index fell by 103 points, or 3.3%, to 2981 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels dropped by $855, reaching $24,720 [1] Group 2: Panamax and Other Vessel Types - The Panamax vessel rate index decreased by 4 points, or 0.2%, to 1915 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $40, amounting to $17,232 [1] - The Supramax vessel rate index remained unchanged at 1346 points, while the Handysize vessel rate index increased by 2 points to 675 points [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has reached a one-month high due to an increase in Capesize vessel freight rates [1] Freight Rate Summary - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 40 points, or 2.1%, to 1906 points, marking the highest level since June 17 [1] - The Capesize freight rate index increased by 109 points, or 4.3%, to 2642 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels rose by $905 to $21,908 [1] - The Panamax freight rate index decreased by 23 points, or 1.2%, to 1967 points, ending a nine-day upward trend [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $214 to $17,700 [1] - The Supramax freight rate index increased by 28 points, or 2.2%, to 1315 points [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index continues to rise, indicating an increase in shipping rates across various vessel types [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 83 points, or 4.7%, reaching 1866 points, marking the highest level since June 18 [1] - The Capesize vessel index rose by 166 points, or 7%, to 2533 points, with daily earnings increasing by $1370 to $21003 [1] - The Panamax vessel index increased by 41 points, or 2.1%, to 1990 points, achieving a nine-day consecutive rise, with daily earnings up by $370 to $17914 [1] - The Supramax vessel index rose by 43 points, or 3.5%, to 1287 points [1]

Core Points - The Baltic Dry Index has fallen to a one-month low due to declining freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [1] - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 15 points or 1% to 1443 points, marking the lowest level since June 3 [1] - The Capesize vessel index dropped by 53 points or 2.6% to 1958 points, the lowest in over a month [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $435 to $16,242 [1] - The Panamax vessel index fell by 8 points or 0.5% to 1492 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels declined by $74 to $13,424 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 13 points to 1031 points [1]

Group 1 - The Baltic Dry Index experienced a slight decline due to decreased demand for Capesize vessels, dropping by 16 points or 1% to 1665 points, marking the lowest level since June 6 [1] - The Capesize vessel index fell by 93 points or 3.3% to 2724 points, the lowest since June 4, and has now declined for seven consecutive trading days [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $768 to $22,592 [1] Group 2 - The Panamax vessel index increased by 41 points or 3% to 1425 points, marking a rise for the third consecutive trading day [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $370 to $12,825 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 11 points or 1.1% to 994 points [1]