Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Export orders have improved, but the pressure of supply surplus remains high. The 2605 contract of caustic soda is still recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, with a reference operating range of 2,150 - 2,550 yuan/ton [1][33] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Overview of Caustic Soda Fundamentals - Since March, the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has driven the chemical sector to strengthen, causing caustic soda futures to rise at the beginning of the month but fall sharply this week. The main reason is that after the geopolitical sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The short - term surplus pattern, approaching contract delivery, and high liquid chlorine prices suppress the price [4]. - As of March 31, the 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,340 yuan/ton. Driven by futures premium and export improvement expectations, the spot price rebounded to 2,303 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 37 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 27, the latest weekly output reached 851,000 tons, remaining at a five - year high. High profits lead to weak maintenance willingness of chlor - alkali plants. The latest national weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda reached 520,000 tons, maintaining the inventory accumulation trend [4] 2. Impact of the US - Iran Conflict on Caustic Soda Fundamentals - The US - Iran conflict affects caustic soda fundamentals in two ways: potential overseas production cuts due to global energy price changes and support for caustic soda prices from the pressure on liquid chlorine prices caused by the reduction of PVC ethylene method production. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Asian (ex - China) and European natural gas shortages may lead to chlor - alkali plant production cuts, and China's export orders are expected to increase. The international price of caustic soda has risen from $340/ton to $480/ton, with an export profit of 458 yuan/ton, and export inquiries are active. However, short - term export channels and transportation capacity limitations are expected to restrict the actual export volume [17]. - The current data does not support the expectation of pressured liquid chlorine prices. Although the output of ethylene - based PVC has decreased due to rising crude oil prices, the output of calcium carbide - based PVC has increased, causing the total PVC output to rise. Moreover, due to the higher chlorine consumption of the calcium carbide method, the liquid chlorine price has rebounded after a short - term decline, currently at 300 yuan/ton. The prices of liquid chlorine and liquid caustic soda have risen simultaneously, and chlor - alkali plants have insufficient willingness to reduce production [17] 3. Outlook for the Future - Although export orders have improved, short - term exports are difficult to increase significantly. In reality, the new production capacity of caustic soda is gradually releasing output, and the inventory remains high. The short - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. In addition, the high premium of the 05 contract may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure will also put pressure on the near - month 05 contract [33]