Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Export orders have improved, but the pressure of supply surplus remains high. The 2605 contract of caustic soda is still recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, with a reference operating range of 2,150 - 2,550 yuan/ton [1][33] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Overview of Caustic Soda Fundamentals - Since March, the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has driven the chemical sector to strengthen, causing caustic soda futures to rise at the beginning of the month but fall sharply this week. The main reason is that after the geopolitical sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The short - term surplus pattern, approaching contract delivery, and high liquid chlorine prices suppress the price [4]. - As of March 31, the 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,340 yuan/ton. Driven by futures premium and export improvement expectations, the spot price rebounded to 2,303 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 37 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 27, the latest weekly output reached 851,000 tons, remaining at a five - year high. High profits lead to weak maintenance willingness of chlor - alkali plants. The latest national weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda reached 520,000 tons, maintaining the inventory accumulation trend [4] 2. Impact of the US - Iran Conflict on Caustic Soda Fundamentals - The US - Iran conflict affects caustic soda fundamentals in two ways: potential overseas production cuts due to global energy price changes and support for caustic soda prices from the pressure on liquid chlorine prices caused by the reduction of PVC ethylene method production. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Asian (ex - China) and European natural gas shortages may lead to chlor - alkali plant production cuts, and China's export orders are expected to increase. The international price of caustic soda has risen from $340/ton to $480/ton, with an export profit of 458 yuan/ton, and export inquiries are active. However, short - term export channels and transportation capacity limitations are expected to restrict the actual export volume [17]. - The current data does not support the expectation of pressured liquid chlorine prices. Although the output of ethylene - based PVC has decreased due to rising crude oil prices, the output of calcium carbide - based PVC has increased, causing the total PVC output to rise. Moreover, due to the higher chlorine consumption of the calcium carbide method, the liquid chlorine price has rebounded after a short - term decline, currently at 300 yuan/ton. The prices of liquid chlorine and liquid caustic soda have risen simultaneously, and chlor - alkali plants have insufficient willingness to reduce production [17] 3. Outlook for the Future - Although export orders have improved, short - term exports are difficult to increase significantly. In reality, the new production capacity of caustic soda is gradually releasing output, and the inventory remains high. The short - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. In addition, the high premium of the 05 contract may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure will also put pressure on the near - month 05 contract [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The trend is weak. High production and high inventory persist, with demand facing challenges from low alumina profits, limited non - aluminum downstream support, and export pressure. The valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations, and cost support is limited [5]. - **PVC**: The trend is also weak. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term. Although the absolute valuation is low and some devices may cut production due to losses, the high - production and weak - demand situation still exists before the 03 contract. In 2026, more significant production cuts may be expected during the maintenance peak [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price and Spread Trends**: The 01 basis of caustic soda strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread weakens. The 50 - 32 alkali spread rebounds and is currently in the normal range, while the flake - liquid alkali spread declines, which is negative for caustic soda [10][26][28]. - **Export Situation**: In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. From January to October, the cumulative export of liquid caustic soda was 2.944 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.93%. The total export volume of caustic soda remains stable, but new production capacity squeezes the export of Shandong inland enterprises [17]. - **Regional Arbitrage**: The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable [23]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production and Inventory**: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [5][37]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity continues to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: In December, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province is reduced, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The liquid chlorine price has not dropped significantly, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [44][48]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina Industry**: In 2025, the alumina production capacity expands significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is facing problems such as declining operating rates, rising inventories, and declining profits, which will have a negative impact on the demand for caustic soda [66][68][70]. - **Other Industries**: The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The paper pulp industry has new production capacity being put into operation. The viscose staple fiber operation is stable, the printing and dyeing operation rate declines, the water treatment industry operation is stable, and the output of the ternary precursor industry increases [84][90][96]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - **Price and Spread Trends**: The PVC basis fluctuates and strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuates and weakens [106]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 79.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. In 2025, 2.2 million tons of new PVC production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026. The inventory of PVC production enterprises increases slightly, and the social inventory is at a high level [113][118][124]. - **Demand**: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC operating rate decreases month - on - month. In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons [129][135][142].