1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants has accumulated. Affected by the rebound of caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises have recovered. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to rise slightly this week. In December, caustic soda is expected to be in a high - supply situation. The imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina industry is expected to intensify, but the short - term negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. There is a game between the strong expectation and weak reality of caustic soda, and SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range around 2100 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the caustic soda main contract was 2219 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the position of the caustic soda main contract was 164,939 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,519 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was - 15,233 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,243 lots; the trading volume of the caustic soda main contract was 343,667 lots, a month - on - month increase of 19,395 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the closing price of the May contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 720 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price in Jiangsu was 820 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2250 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of caustic soda was 31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 75.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% month - on - month to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% month - on - month to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 rose 1.10% to close at 2,567 yuan/ton Supply-side, last week, there were both shutdown and restart of domestic plants, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% to 84.1% Demand-side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% to 61.46% In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% to 437,800 tons This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large Technically, SH2509 should pay attention to the pressure around 2,650, and SH2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2,567 yuan/ton, the main contract position was 42,812 lots (down 6,806 lots), the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,632 lots (down 1,133 lots), and the main contract trading volume was 101,040 lots (down 45,977 lots) The closing price of the January contract was 2,635 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and the closing price of the May contract was 2,723 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 890 yuan/ton The 32% caustic soda equivalent-to-100% price in Shandong was 2,562.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 58 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan) [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, and the price of thermal coal was 643 yuan/ton [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -49.5 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was -100 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 3,215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [3] Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0% As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]