Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 rose 1.80% to close at 2,655 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, there were both shutdown and restarted plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places will further increase, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably. The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the resistance around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 78,794 lots, up 14,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was -2,221 lots, up 11,389 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 351,729 lots, up 141,371 lots; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for January was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for May was 2,731 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda main contract switched to the 01 contract. SH2601 fell 1.85% to close at 2,598 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina industry's profit is considerable and there is no planned production cut. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching but the rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 64,074 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 21,262 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,610 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 22 lots; the main contract trading volume was 210,358 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 109,318 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,694 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 31 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 250.5 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was -250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 437,800 tons (wet tons), with a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina start-up rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber start-up rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance devices in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large [3]

| | | ，装置预计稳定运行。非铝下游尚缺乏改善信号。SH2509短期关注2600附近压力；SH2601关注2530附近 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 支撑与2700附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 烧碱产业日报 2025-08-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2530 | 49 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61036 | -9420 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -20130 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Caustic Soda Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 11 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Supply: There were both shutdown and restarted plants last week, with caustic soda capacity utilization rising 1.2% to 85.1%. Many plants in Northwest, East, and North China plan to conduct maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization [3]. - Demand: Alumina industry's profit is considerable, with no planned production cuts and stable operation expected. Non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season, with weak rigid demand [3]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 8.84% to 46.17 tons last week, with high inventory pressure and lack of positive demand factors [3]. - Price: Shandong liquid caustic soda price may continue the weak trend. SH2509 is expected to trade in the 2400 - 2550 range in the short term; SH2601 still faces pressure, with technical support around 2450 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2492 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2595 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; and for May was 2678 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [3]. - The futures trading volume of caustic soda was 199224 lots, up 38925 lots; the futures open interest was 84552 lots, down 11648 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 15993 lots, up 2613 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 54 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu was - 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, up 1.2% week - on - week [3]. - As of August 7th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 46.17 tons (wet basis), up 8.84% week - on - week and 17.08% year - on - year [3]. - Last week, the alumina operating rate increased 0.15% to 85.73%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased 0.38% to 59.28% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 2,512 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device maintenance in Central and East China last week, with a slight change in caustic soda capacity utilization rate to 80.4%. The demand - side showed an increase in alumina and viscose staple fiber开工率, while a decrease in printing and dyeing开工率. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased last week. In July, the planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased, but the caustic soda start - up rate was restricted due to the backlog of liquid chlorine. This week, with frequent stop - and - restart of devices, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, low profits and limited downstream demand are the core contradictions. Recently, the non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm. For futures, pay attention to the pressure around 2,600 yuan/ton for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2,512 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume was 246,154 hands (an increase of 8,176 hands), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 4,705 hands (a decrease of 2,591 hands), the trading volume was 519,094 hands (a decrease of 355,050 hands). The closing price of the January contract was 2,500 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the May contract was 2,558 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 113 yuan/ton (an increase of 20 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 636 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton (an increase of 250 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton (an increase of 125.5 yuan/ton) [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3,150 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week. As of July 10th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% from the previous week and an increase of 2.64% year - on - year [1] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The alumina开工率 increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons last week. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased, but the start - up rate was restricted. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Recently, non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction is the low profit and limited downstream demand. In the short - term, the spot price may remain firm due to the increased non - aluminum procurement enthusiasm, and for the futures, attention should be paid to the pressure around 2600 for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2532 yuan/ton, the futures trading volume is 874144 hands with an increase of 283841 hands, and the futures open interest is 237978 hands with a decrease of 14539 hands. The closing prices of the January and May contracts are 2509 yuan/ton and 2564 yuan/ton respectively, and the latter increased by 28 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures decreased from - 8629 hands to - 2114 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 840 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2625 yuan/ton, and the basis is 93 yuan/ton with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest regions are 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are - 550 yuan/ton and - 175 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [1] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, new plants in Central and East China were under maintenance last week, while the load of some plants in South and North China increased, and the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 80.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9% [1] 3.8 Inventory Situation - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons, with little inventory pressure [1] 3.9 Outlook - The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased, but due to the concentrated maintenance of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine, the backlog of liquid chlorine has led to a deep price inversion and dragged down the chlor - alkali profit, thus restricting the increase in the caustic soda operating rate. This week, there are many plant shutdowns and restarts, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises has decreased. The non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2340 and the resistance around 2400. The rebound sustainability of the 09 contract is questionable due to the lack of fundamental positives, but the downside space of the futures price is limited as it is close to the cost below 2200. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the caustic soda industry will increase as there are many caustic soda production units scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, and the caustic soda spot market still faces significant pressure with limited demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2319 yuan/ton, with no change. The trading volume is 614,345 lots, a decrease of 66,487 lots; the open interest is 269,237 lots, an increase of 12 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures brokers is - 24,910 lots, a decrease of 1,698 lots. The closing prices of the January and May caustic soda contracts are 2324 yuan/ton and 2383 yuan/ton respectively, with the May contract up 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis is 119 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 635 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 1.3% increase from the previous period. As of June 26th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.51% increase from the previous period and a 10.40% increase year - on - year [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Supply side: Last week, some enterprises' caustic soda production facilities were shut down for maintenance while others restarted, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 82.5%. This week, three sets of facilities in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three sets in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production units scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, increasing the long - term supply pressure of the industry. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all declined. The alumina price and profit slightly decreased, and the growth of its operating rate stagnated. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak during the off - season, and there is resistance to high prices. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report SH2509 rose 0.09% to close at 2,279 yuan/ton. The supply - side capacity utilization increased slightly last week. The demand - side shows alumina in the resumption stage, and non - aluminum demand has mixed trends. The inventory is at a neutral - high level. With some device overhauls and restarts, the capacity utilization may decline. There is high medium - long - term supply pressure. The cost support is limited, and the caustic soda spot has room to fall. The futures price is at a discount, with low valuation below 2,200 but lacking upward - driving factors. SH2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,220 - 2,320 in the short term [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,279 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the futures holding volume was 290,686 lots, up 6,414 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 28,554 lots, up 1,200 lots; the futures trading volume was 462,028 lots, down 45,735 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,273 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan, and the May contract was 2,339 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,437.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 产业情况 - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was - 100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. 下游情况 - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was down 60 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 行业消息 - From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, up 0.3% week - on - week. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons [3]. 观点总结 - The supply - side capacity utilization increased 0.3% to 81.2% last week. The demand - side shows alumina in the resumption stage. Non - aluminum demand: the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased 0.24% to 80.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased 0.64% to 60.73%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased 5.63% to 365,600 tons, at a neutral - high level. Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device will be shut down for maintenance this week, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization may decline. There are many new caustic soda production devices from June to July, with high medium - long - term supply pressure. The cost support is limited, the caustic soda spot has room to fall, the futures price is at a discount, and SH2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,220 - 2,320 in the short term [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with the range estimated around 2220 - 2320. Supply pressure is high in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline, while the futures price is undervalued below 2200 but lacks positive drivers for a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2272 yuan/ton. The futures open interest is 293,284 lots, a decrease of 4,497 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 15,116 lots, a decrease of 23,262 lots. The futures trading volume is 508,464 lots, a decrease of 145,252 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2266 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2329 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63% [1]. 3.6 Market Analysis - The SH2509 contract rose 0.31% to close at 2272 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2% last week, with little change from the previous period. On the demand side, alumina is still in the resumption stage; for non - aluminum sectors, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 0.64% week - on - week to 60.73%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 365,600 tons, at a moderately high level during the same period. This week, Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. There are many caustic soda production devices to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high medium - to - long - term supply pressure. The delivery volume of the main contract remains high; the non - aluminum off - season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. In terms of cost, the downstream demand for steam coal has improved recently, but the price increase lacks a sustainable driving force, and the power cost support of self - supplied power plants is limited. The profit of chlor - alkali is acceptable, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline; the futures price is at a discount, and the valuation is low below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, with an increasing number of restarted production facilities, which is expected to boost the demand for caustic soda. However, some non - aluminum industries have entered the off - season, with cautious purchasing and mainly for rigid demand. Industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price, but the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the uncertainty of downstream stockpiling demand bring an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the future. The price of near - month contracts is stronger than that of far - month contracts. The current main contract is at a low level with a high basis, so short - selling is not advisable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2371 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the futures holding volume is 213,841 lots, up 37,370 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 25,227 lots, down 10,548 lots; the futures trading volume is 360,954 lots, down 275,199 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2271 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2330 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 379 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 655 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 125 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 23rd to 29th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 392,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.22% [3]. 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda last week increased by 1.6% week - on - week to 84.1%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.43% week - on - week to 79.53%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 80.6%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.55% week - on - week to 62.68%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants last week decreased by 2.08% week - on - week to 392,600 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3].