氧化铝企业减产压力，但目前氧化铝企业尚无规模性减产迹象。非铝下游或维持刚需采购、变化不大。液 氯价格偏强，氯碱装置高开工、高利润持续，日内山东32%液碱市场价承压下跌。目前主力基差仍偏高， 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 反映市场对后市供需偏弱预期等待验证，关注12月氧化铝是否有集中减产计划。短期SH2601预计震荡走势 免责声明 ，技术上关注2270附近前低支撑。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 烧碱产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2291 | -36 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 150653 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range expected to be around 2300 - 2420. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was repaired last week. This week, the supply of caustic soda is expected to increase. The short - term caustic soda consumption demand of downstream industries is not expected to shrink significantly, but there are co - existing expectations of new alumina capacity launch and cost - based production cuts of existing units in the fourth quarter. If alumina production cuts are implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new units. The pressure of caustic soda warehouse receipts has eased [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2380 yuan/ton and 2482 yuan/ton respectively, both up 36 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1774 lots, up 15647 lots. The main contract's open interest was 122212 lots, down 14026 lots, and the trading volume was 298867 lots, down 119034 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2563.5 yuan/ton, down 30.25 yuan. The basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 50.5 yuan/ton, up 50.5 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2835 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% week - on - week to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% week - on - week to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 67.26%. As of October 16th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.25% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary - Industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: SH2601 showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, closing at 2438 yuan/ton. During the holiday, the operating loads of plants in North and Northwest China decreased, leading to a narrow decline in caustic soda capacity utilization. Alumina profit continued to shrink, but the device operation was relatively stable with little change in capacity utilization. Last week, the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. During the holiday, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, resulting in a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventories and high inventory pressure. This week, there are maintenance expectations for plants in North and East China, which may partially relieve the industry's supply pressure. Downstream alumina enterprises have no large - scale production reduction plans, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks signals of demand improvement and is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may be relieved. New alumina plants will be put into operation from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, giving an improvement expectation for the far - end supply and demand. However, the high number of warehouse receipts still suppresses the futures price. The market digested the impact of the Sino - US trade dispute, and industrial products opened lower and moved higher with mixed gains and losses on the day. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate. Technically, pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2491 [3] Data Summary Futures market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 111822 lots, up 812 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1846 lots, up 2686 lots; the main contract trading volume was 256622 lots, down 72390 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2539 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] Spot market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 156 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] Upstream situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] Industry News Summary - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [3] - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% to 66.63% [3] - As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3] - From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3]

改善预期。只是高仓单对盘面价格压制作用仍存。短期SH2601预计震荡走势，区间预计在2460-2520附近 。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2464 | -6 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 109226 | 721 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -1357 | 466 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 289693 | 8272 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2464 | -6 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2563 | -6 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -1357 | 466 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 820 | 5 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 940 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2562.5 | 15.62 基差:烧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda futures market has seen a decline, with SH2601 down 3.32% to 2535 yuan/ton. The spot price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to remain under pressure due to the relatively loose supply during the pre - National Day restocking period for downstream industries. The alumina profit continues to shrink, and the procurement intention has weakened. The market sentiment has declined recently, and the futures price drop has led to a narrowing of the basis. There is still support for demand from the commissioning of new alumina plants from the fourth quarter to early next year, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking rhythm. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2509 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2535 yuan/ton and 2625 yuan/ton respectively, down 69 yuan/ton and 71 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 9018 lots, an increase of 2008 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 477688 lots, an increase of 35228 lots, and the position is 114144 lots, an increase of 12443 lots [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis is - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 0 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous week. From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% to 37.83 tons, with the trend changing from decreasing to increasing. From September 12th to 18th, the Shandong chlor - alkali profit decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3]. Outlook - Multiple plants such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua are expected to restart this week, which is expected to drive the caustic soda capacity utilization rate to increase month - on - month. The alumina profit continues to shrink, and although there is no cost - based production cut yet, the procurement intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream industries are resistant to high prices [3].

短期SH2601预计震荡走势，技术上关注2530附近支撑与2630附近压力。 免责声明 地区供应充足，下游氧化铝厂采购价下调，非铝企业高价抵触，32%碱市场价跌幅明显；华东地区货源仍 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 偏紧，价格维稳为主。宏观方面，中美西班牙会谈进展顺利，国内新一轮重点行业稳增长政策即将出台。 | | | | 烧碱产业日报 | | 2025-09-17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2608 | | 29 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 106433 | 498 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -11071 | | 4619 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 309038 | -33664 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2608 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 rose 1.80% to close at 2,655 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, there were both shutdown and restarted plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places will further increase, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably. The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the resistance around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 78,794 lots, up 14,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was -2,221 lots, up 11,389 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 351,729 lots, up 141,371 lots; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for January was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for May was 2,731 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda main contract switched to the 01 contract. SH2601 fell 1.85% to close at 2,598 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina industry's profit is considerable and there is no planned production cut. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching but the rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 64,074 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 21,262 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,610 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 22 lots; the main contract trading volume was 210,358 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 109,318 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,694 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 31 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 250.5 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was -250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 437,800 tons (wet tons), with a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina start-up rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber start-up rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance devices in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large [3]

| | | ，装置预计稳定运行。非铝下游尚缺乏改善信号。SH2509短期关注2600附近压力；SH2601关注2530附近 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 支撑与2700附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 烧碱产业日报 2025-08-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2530 | 49 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61036 | -9420 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -20130 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Caustic Soda Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 11 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Supply: There were both shutdown and restarted plants last week, with caustic soda capacity utilization rising 1.2% to 85.1%. Many plants in Northwest, East, and North China plan to conduct maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization [3]. - Demand: Alumina industry's profit is considerable, with no planned production cuts and stable operation expected. Non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season, with weak rigid demand [3]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 8.84% to 46.17 tons last week, with high inventory pressure and lack of positive demand factors [3]. - Price: Shandong liquid caustic soda price may continue the weak trend. SH2509 is expected to trade in the 2400 - 2550 range in the short term; SH2601 still faces pressure, with technical support around 2450 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2492 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2595 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; and for May was 2678 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [3]. - The futures trading volume of caustic soda was 199224 lots, up 38925 lots; the futures open interest was 84552 lots, down 11648 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 15993 lots, up 2613 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 54 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu was - 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, up 1.2% week - on - week [3]. - As of August 7th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 46.17 tons (wet basis), up 8.84% week - on - week and 17.08% year - on - year [3]. - Last week, the alumina operating rate increased 0.15% to 85.73%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased 0.38% to 59.28% [3].