Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has slightly increased and remains at a high level The downstream alumina's operating rate has little change, the viscose staple fiber's operating load has increased, and the printing and dyeing's operating rate has seasonally declined [2] - The inventory has accumulated month - on - month and is higher than the same - period level The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, the price of liquid chlorine has been raised, and the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has increased slightly [2] - The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January is relatively small, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level With the gradual release of the production capacity of newly - built plants at the end of the year, the supply pressure of caustic soda may further increase [2] - In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises remains basically stable, but the low profit of the industry restrains the procurement demand of alumina plants and strengthens the expectation of future production cuts Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market remains relatively loose, and the spot price is under pressure The SH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan The main contract's open interest is 231,988 lots, an increase of 23,201 lots The net position of the top 20 futures traders is - 30,153 lots, a decrease of 3,731 lots The trading volume of the main contract is 485,406 lots, a decrease of 273 lots [2] - The closing price of the January contract is 0 yuan/ton, with no change The closing price of the May contract is 2275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan The price in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan The basis of caustic soda is 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, with no change The mainstream price in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, with no change The price of steam coal is 644 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan The mainstream price in Jiangsu is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan The spot price of alumina is 2580 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] - From January 3rd to 9th, the operating rate of alumina increased by 1.07% month - on - month to 85.74% From January 5th to 8th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 3.01% month - on - month to 88.43%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 0.72% month - on - month to 60.09% [2] - As of January 8th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [2] - From January 2nd to 8th, the average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 183 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants has accumulated. Affected by the rebound of caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises have recovered. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to rise slightly this week. In December, caustic soda is expected to be in a high - supply situation. The imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina industry is expected to intensify, but the short - term negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. There is a game between the strong expectation and weak reality of caustic soda, and SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range around 2100 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the caustic soda main contract was 2219 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the position of the caustic soda main contract was 164,939 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,519 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was - 15,233 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,243 lots; the trading volume of the caustic soda main contract was 343,667 lots, a month - on - month increase of 19,395 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the closing price of the May contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 720 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price in Jiangsu was 820 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2250 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of caustic soda was 31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 75.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% month - on - month to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% month - on - month to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the loose spot supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and maintained a contraction trend. [2] - This week, some plants in East and North China will restart, and the newly followed - up maintenance capacity is scarce. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, caustic soda is generally expected to be in a situation of high supply. [2] - There is no news of production cuts from alumina enterprises, and the procurement demand is low under the background of low profits; non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. Inventory is expected to remain high, supply will continue to be loose, spot prices will be under pressure, and it is more likely that the spot will decline to close the basis in the future. [2] - SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the high basis and low corresponding profit level may limit the decline space, with the daily range expected to be around 2180 - 2240 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 151,780 lots, an increase of 3,333 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 19,581 lots, a decrease of 1,030 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 244,169 lots, a decrease of 30,998 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2413 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2281 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 654 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. [2] - From November 22nd to 28th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.60% month - on - month to 86.06%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 91.29%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.02% month - on - month to 65.53%. [2] - As of November 27th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons nationwide was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Last week, the national average operating rate of caustic soda decreased slightly, downstream operating rates changed little, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories continued to decline with a moderately high inventory pressure. The strong price of thermal coal drove up costs, while the prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine were weak, leading to a decline in the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong last week. This week, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to reduce production, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts yet. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, and the chlor - alkali plant maintains high operation and high profit. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong fell under pressure. The current main basis is still high, reflecting the market's weak supply - demand expectation for the future, waiting for verification. Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate, and technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 2270 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2291 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2291 yuan/ton and 2438 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 44 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in futures was - 23970 lots, down 8850 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 391745 lots, an increase of 34254 lots, and the position was 150653 lots, an increase of 23961 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions was 780 yuan/ton and 910 yuan/ton respectively, with Shandong down 10 yuan and Jiangsu unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan, and the basis was 147 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu was 50.5 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda in China decreased by 0.7% month - on - month to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% month - on - month to 85.37%. From November 7th to 13th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.1% month - on - month to 89.50%, and the dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% month - on - month to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 40.22 tons, down 3.04% month - on - month. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down month - on - month [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range expected to be around 2300 - 2420. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was repaired last week. This week, the supply of caustic soda is expected to increase. The short - term caustic soda consumption demand of downstream industries is not expected to shrink significantly, but there are co - existing expectations of new alumina capacity launch and cost - based production cuts of existing units in the fourth quarter. If alumina production cuts are implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new units. The pressure of caustic soda warehouse receipts has eased [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2380 yuan/ton and 2482 yuan/ton respectively, both up 36 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1774 lots, up 15647 lots. The main contract's open interest was 122212 lots, down 14026 lots, and the trading volume was 298867 lots, down 119034 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2563.5 yuan/ton, down 30.25 yuan. The basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 50.5 yuan/ton, up 50.5 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2835 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% week - on - week to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% week - on - week to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 67.26%. As of October 16th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.25% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary - Industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: SH2601 showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, closing at 2438 yuan/ton. During the holiday, the operating loads of plants in North and Northwest China decreased, leading to a narrow decline in caustic soda capacity utilization. Alumina profit continued to shrink, but the device operation was relatively stable with little change in capacity utilization. Last week, the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. During the holiday, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, resulting in a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventories and high inventory pressure. This week, there are maintenance expectations for plants in North and East China, which may partially relieve the industry's supply pressure. Downstream alumina enterprises have no large - scale production reduction plans, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks signals of demand improvement and is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may be relieved. New alumina plants will be put into operation from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, giving an improvement expectation for the far - end supply and demand. However, the high number of warehouse receipts still suppresses the futures price. The market digested the impact of the Sino - US trade dispute, and industrial products opened lower and moved higher with mixed gains and losses on the day. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate. Technically, pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2491 [3] Data Summary Futures market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 111822 lots, up 812 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1846 lots, up 2686 lots; the main contract trading volume was 256622 lots, down 72390 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2539 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] Spot market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 156 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] Upstream situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] Industry News Summary - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [3] - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% to 66.63% [3] - As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3] - From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 2460 - 2520. High warehouse receipts still have a suppressing effect on the futures price. There are new alumina plants to be put into operation from this fourth quarter to early next year, which gives an improvement expectation for the long - term supply - demand situation. However, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories is relatively high currently [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 109,226 lots, up 721 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 1357 lots, up 466 lots; the trading volume of the main contract is 289,693 lots, up 8272 lots. The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan, and that of the May contract is 2563 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2562.5 yuan/ton, up 15.62 yuan. The basis of caustic soda is 130 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 175 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina is 2875 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% week - on - week to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% week - on - week to 66.63%. As of October 9th, the inventory of caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet weight), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56%. From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda futures market has seen a decline, with SH2601 down 3.32% to 2535 yuan/ton. The spot price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to remain under pressure due to the relatively loose supply during the pre - National Day restocking period for downstream industries. The alumina profit continues to shrink, and the procurement intention has weakened. The market sentiment has declined recently, and the futures price drop has led to a narrowing of the basis. There is still support for demand from the commissioning of new alumina plants from the fourth quarter to early next year, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking rhythm. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2509 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2535 yuan/ton and 2625 yuan/ton respectively, down 69 yuan/ton and 71 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 9018 lots, an increase of 2008 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 477688 lots, an increase of 35228 lots, and the position is 114144 lots, an increase of 12443 lots [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis is - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 0 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous week. From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% to 37.83 tons, with the trend changing from decreasing to increasing. From September 12th to 18th, the Shandong chlor - alkali profit decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3]. Outlook - Multiple plants such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua are expected to restart this week, which is expected to drive the caustic soda capacity utilization rate to increase month - on - month. The alumina profit continues to shrink, and although there is no cost - based production cut yet, the procurement intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream industries are resistant to high prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - SH2601 showed a volatile upward trend, closing at 2,608 yuan/ton. The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 83.4%. On the demand side, the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all saw an increase in their operating rates. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 7.99% week-on-week to 356,800 tons, resuming the destocking trend. There are planned maintenance devices in the Northwest and Northeast this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline week-on-week. There are many maintenance plans for chlor-alkali devices in September, and the industry's supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Alumina enterprises' profits are shrinking but there is no cost-driven production cut yet, and the amount of caustic soda delivered is still high. Recently, the spot price of liquid caustic soda has shown regional differentiation. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, and technically, pay attention to the support near 2,530 and the resistance near 2,630 [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,608 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 106,433 lots, up 498 lots; the top 20 net positions were -11,071 lots, up 4,619 lots; the main contract trading volume was 309,038 lots, down 33,664 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,608 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] Spot Market - In Shandong, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was 820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted price per 100% of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was -45 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.4%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8%. As of September 11th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 356,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 7.99% and a year-on-year increase of 15.48% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 rose 1.80% to close at 2,655 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, there were both shutdown and restarted plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places will further increase, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably. The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the resistance around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 78,794 lots, up 14,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was -2,221 lots, up 11,389 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 351,729 lots, up 141,371 lots; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for January was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for May was 2,731 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]