燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场因含硫0.5%船用燃料油供应紧张而持续获得支撑。贸易商消息 称，西方至新加坡套的利窗口关闭将持续限制7月上半月的船货到货量；亚洲高硫燃料油市场受 到中东地区夏季公用事业的季节性需求旺季的支撑。不过，目前供应商充足的库存导致下游船燃 需求疲软，短期内可能压制市场基本面；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为474.18美元/吨，基差为219元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为543.5美元 /吨，基差为120元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油6月11日当周库存为2311.9万桶，增加171万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓多单，多减，偏多；低硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空 6、预期：隔夜中东地缘风险先退后升，美国可能介入伊以冲突中，提升市场风险担忧情绪，燃 油预计呈现偏强运行。FU2509：3250-3350区间偏强运行，LU2508：3800-3900区间偏强运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-17燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-16燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、预期：隔夜原油继续走低，而燃油受基本面短期偏支撑影响表现略强于原油，抗跌较为明显吗，预 计今日延续。FU2507：2980-3040区间运行，LU2507：3585-3640区间运行 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡一位贸易商表示，由于东西套利窗口持续关闭，6月之前低硫燃料油市场供应可能会 相当紧张，不过当前下游船燃需求（尤其是码头直供端需求）支撑力度有限；受季节性发电需求上涨和 下游船燃市场强劲买盘的推动，亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构走强；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为433.89美元/吨，基差为159元/吨，新加坡低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the fuel oil market, indicating that due to increased supply of arbitrage goods and inflow of blending components, the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore may face greater pressure in the coming weeks. With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply of arbitrage goods and blending components may pressure the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore. In April, the total open interest of the near - month contract for high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 11.32% month - on - month to 9.37 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $51/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is $165/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of April 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Market Trend**: Prices are below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions have shifted from short to long, and low - sulfur main positions have shifted from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Market Driver**: The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2865, up 35 (1.24%) from the previous value; the current price of the LU main contract is 3371, up 62 (1.87%) from the previous value [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is $488/ton, up $7 (1.46%) from the previous value; the current price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is $495/ton, up $5 (1.02%) from the previous value. The current price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $395.71/ton, up $9.32 (2.41%) from the previous value; the current price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is $482.5/ton, up $10 (2.12%) from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of April 23, the inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged from the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [3][7].

燃料油日报 | 2025-04-18 伊朗燃料油出口维持低位 市场分析 原油价格延续震荡走势，短期不确定性因素较多，趋势尚不明朗，对下游FU、LU价格指引有限。 就燃料油自身基本面来看，近期高硫油月差结构边际转弱，现货紧张的状态缓和。但中期来看，结构性支撑因素 仍存，当前重油偏紧的矛盾将抑制高硫燃料油的供应增长。其中，美国对伊朗的制裁抑制了其原油、燃料油的供 应。参考船期数据，伊朗4月高硫燃料油发货量仅有57万吨，环比减少25万吨，同比下降75万吨。近日伊核谈判重 启，但暂时还未看到制裁放松的迹象。此外，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地电力需求将迎来季节性提升，且由 于天然气短缺的问题，埃及、伊朗与伊拉克预计会使用更多高硫燃料油来替代天然气，为燃料油带来额外的消费 增量。 低硫燃料油方面，近期市场结构有边际好转的迹象，裂解与月差小幅回升，短期船燃需求有所回升，可能来自关 税落地前的抢出口。但站在中期视角，低硫燃料油需求份额被替代的趋势并未逆转，5月地中海ECA生效后或面临 进一步的压力。此外，如果关税冲突延续，全球贸易需求面临下行风险，进而对燃料油需求形成利空，低硫燃料 油反应会更加敏感。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-18燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：随着未来几周夏季公用事业需求回升，高硫燃料油短期内进一步下跌的空间可能有限，市 场基本面仍将获得部分支撑，低硫燃料油市场整体持稳，高硫燃料油市场压力放缓；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为413.7美元/吨，基差为146元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为478.5美元/吨，基 差为139元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 6、预期：隔夜原油震荡走高，受到美国对伊朗新一轮制裁影响部分推升燃油价格。FU2505：2970-3020 区间偏多操作，LU2505：3470-3520区间偏多操作 3、库存：新加坡燃料油4月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for fuel oil, different factors have different biases: fundamental analysis is neutral [3]; basis is bullish; inventory is bearish; price trend on the chart is bearish; high - sulfur main position is bearish, while low - sulfur main position is bullish [3]. 2. Core View - Due to the expansion of the price difference between Singapore FOB 0.5% sulfur marine fuel and Rotterdam barge of the same grade, the east - west arbitrage economy is gradually improving, and more medium - sulfur blending components are expected to arrive in Singapore in May. The terminal demand for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel recovers slowly. Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, and the price of fuel oil was partially boosted by the new round of US sanctions on Iran. For FU2505, conduct bullish operations in the 2930 - 2980 range, and for LU2505, conduct bullish operations in the 3390 - 3420 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The supply of ultra - low sulfur fuel in Singapore is abundant, but there is still a stable demand for medium - sulfur blending components. In March, the sales volume of low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore was 242.6 million tons, a 12.8% month - on - month increase but a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $417.26 per ton with a basis of 255 yuan per ton; low - sulfur fuel oil is $479.5 per ton with a basis of 274 yuan per ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of April 9 was 2710.9 million barrels, a 44 - million - barrel increase from the previous week [3]. - **Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position changes from long to short, while low - sulfur main position changes from short to long [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher. FU2505: 2930 - 2980 range for bullish operations, LU2505: 3390 - 3420 range for bullish operations [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: OPEC+ additional production cuts continue (implementation to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Driver**: The co - existence of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2944, the current value is 2925, a decrease of 19 or 0.65%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3401, the current value is 3374, a decrease of 27 or 0.79%. The basis of FU increased by 93 to 255, a 57.58% increase; the basis of LU increased by 65 to 274, a 31.43% increase [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased by $3 to $477 per ton, a 0.63% decrease; the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel remained unchanged at $483 per ton. Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased by $4.06 to $417.26 per ton, a 0.98% increase; Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased by $1 to $479.5 per ton, a 0.21% decrease. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased by $4.43 to $396.04 per ton, a 1.13% increase; Singapore diesel increased by $5.44 to $585.37 per ton, a 0.94% increase [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on April 9 was 2710.9 million barrels, a 44 - million - barrel increase from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated in recent months, with increases and decreases in different weeks [3][8].